Shenzhou International (02313.HK): Overseas garment production capacity accounts for more than half of 2023H2 gross sales margin improved month-on-month

事件描述

3 月26 日，公司披露2023 年年度业绩，2023 年，公司实现收入249.70 亿元，同比下降10.1%，实现归母净利润45.57 亿元，同比下降0.1%，基本每股收益3.03 元/股，同比下降0.3%。公司董事会建议派发末期股息每股1.08 港元，连同中期股息每股0.95港元，2023 年合计派息2.03 港元/股，2023 全年派息率60.3%。

事件点评

2023H2 营收降幅环比改善，2023 年归母净利润同比基本持平。营收端，2023 年，公司实现收入249.70 亿元，其中2023H1、2023H2 实现收入115.62、134.08 亿元，同比下降14.9%、5.5%。量价拆分看，2023H1 美元计产品单价同比下降1%，人民币计产品单价增长5%，销售数量同比下降19.0%。2023 年，美元计产品单价同比增长1%，人民币计产品单价增长5%，销售数量同比下降14%-15%。业绩端，2023 年，公司实现归母净利润45.57 亿元，同比下降0.1%，其中2023H1、2023H2 实现归母净利润21.27、24.30 亿元，同比下降10.1%、增长10.7%，2023 年，公司业绩端表现好于收入端，主因销售毛利率同比提升，政府补助和利息收入增加，有效税率下降。2023 年，海外工厂成衣产能占比由46%提升至53%，其中柬埔寨工厂成衣产能占比由22%提升至26%。

2023 年运动服饰仍为公司基本盘，内衣产品收入高增。分产品看，2023 年，运动服饰、休闲服饰、内衣服饰、其他针织品分别实现收入180.32、56.73、10.67、1.99 亿元，同比下降13.6%、1.4%、增长30.2%、下降41.6%，收入占比分别为72.2%、22.7%、4.3%、0.8%。运动服饰收入下降主因来自欧洲和美国市场运动服饰订单需求下降，休闲服饰收入下降主要系日本市场和其它市场休闲服饰需求减少，内衣服饰收入增长主因日本市场和其它市场内衣服装需求增加，其它针织品收入下降主因公司已停止生产和销售口罩产品。

2023 年国内市场收入微增，欧美市场需求降幅较大。分市场看，2023 年，中国大陆、欧盟、美国、日本、其它区域分别实现收入71.24、50.27、38.80、36.76、52.63亿元，同比增长0.7%、-19.1%、-20.4%、-6.4%、-7.6%，收入占比分别为28.5%、20.1%、15.5%、14.7%、21.1%。

2023 年核心客户优衣库营收同比正增长，国内运动品牌客户收入占比同比提升。分客户看，2023 年，公司四大核心客户收入占比下滑2.4pct 至79.6%，耐克、优衣库、阿迪达斯、彪马分别实现收入76.97、60.02、36.92、24.91 亿元，同比下降10.8%、增长2.9%、下降24.1%、下降28.1%，收入占比分别为30.8%、24.0%、14.8%、10.0%。国内运动品牌客户收入合计占比超过11.0%，同比提升2pct。

2023H2 毛利率环比继续改善，存货周转天数维持正常水平。盈利能力方面，2023年，公司毛利率同比提升2.2pct 至24.3%，主因：1）2023H2 产能利用率同比提升；2）海外新工厂运行效率逐步提高，新员工聘用人数进一步增加，海外工厂的盈利贡献上升。

其中，2023H1 毛利率同比下滑0.2pct 至22.4%，2023H2 毛利率同比提升4.3pct 至25.8%。

期间费用率方面，公司费用率同比提升1.0pct 至9.6%，其中销售、管理、财务费用率分别为0.7%、7.5%、1.4%，同比变化分别为-0.1pct、+0.5pct、+0.6pct。叠加其它收入及收益占收入比重同比提升2.5pct（主要为利息收入、政府补助增加）、有效税率同比下滑4.5pct 至8.8%、汇兑收益下降，综合影响下，2023 年，公司归母净利润率同比提升1.9pct至18.3%，其中2023H1 归母净利润率同比提升1.0pct 至18.4%，2023H2 归母净利润率同比提升2.6pct 至18.1%。存货方面，截至2023 年末，公司存货为61.25 亿元，同比下降2.2%，存货周转天数120 天，同比增加11 天，处于历史正常区间。

投资建议

2023 年下半年，公司营收端降幅收窄，虽恢复力度不及市场预期，但伴随海外工厂效率提升、产能利用率回升，销售毛利率环比继续改善。2023 年，公司在绿色生产、产品多元化、订单快速响应及交付方面均有进一步提升，中长期看，公司面料成衣纵向一体化核心竞争优势不改，产品多元化布局有望继续提升客户份额且丰富客户矩阵，海外成衣产能比重增加有望带动盈利水平持续提升。我们预计公司2024-2026 年每股收益分别为3.59、4.13 和4.68 元，3 月26 日收盘价对应公司2024-2026 年PE 分别为16.6、14.5、12.8 倍，维持“买入-A”评级。

风险提示

国内市场订单不及预期；汇率大幅波动；海外棉花价格大幅波动。

Description of the event

On March 26, the company disclosed its 2023 annual results. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 24.970 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%, and realized net profit of 4.557 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. The basic earnings per share were 3.03 yuan/share, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. The board of directors of the company recommended a final dividend of HK$1.08 per share, together with an interim dividend of HK$0.95 per share, for a total dividend of HK$2.03 per share for 2023, and a dividend payout rate of 60.3% for the full year of 2023.

Incident reviews

The decline in 2023H2 revenue improved month-on-month, and net profit returned to mother in 2023 was basically the same year on year. On the revenue side, in 2023, the company achieved revenue of 24.97 billion yuan, of which 2023H1 and 2023H2 achieved revenue of 115.62 billion yuan and 13.408 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 14.9% and 5.5%. Looking at volume and price splitting, the unit price of 2023H1 dollar products decreased by 1% year on year, the unit price of RMB products increased by 5%, and sales volume decreased 19.0% year on year. In 2023, the unit price of products in US dollars increased by 1% year on year, the unit price of products in RMB increased by 5%, and sales volume decreased by 14%-15% year on year. On the performance side, in 2023, the company achieved net profit of 4.557 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.1%. Among them, 2023H1 and 2023H2 achieved net profit of 21.27 billion yuan and 2.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1% and an increase of 10.7%. In 2023, the company's performance side was better than the revenue side, mainly due to a year-on-year increase in gross sales margin, an increase in government subsidy and interest income, and a decrease in the effective tax rate. In 2023, the share of garment production capacity in overseas factories increased from 46% to 53%, with Cambodian factories increasing the share of garment production capacity from 22% to 26%.

In 2023, sportswear is still the company's basic market, and revenue from underwear products is growing rapidly. By product, in 2023, sportswear, casual wear, underwear, and other knitwear achieved revenue of 180.32, 56.73, 10.67, and 199 billion yuan respectively, down 13.6%, 1.4%, up 30.2%, and 41.6% year-on-year, accounting for 72.2%, 22.7%, 4.3%, and 0.8% of revenue respectively. The decline in sportswear revenue is mainly due to falling demand for sportswear orders from the European and US markets. The decline in casual wear revenue is mainly due to a decrease in demand for casual wear in the Japanese market and other markets. The increase in underwear revenue is mainly due to increased demand for underwear in the Japanese market and other markets, and the decline in other knitwear revenue is mainly due to the company's cessation of production and sales of mask products.

Domestic market revenue increased slightly in 2023, and demand in the European and American markets dropped significantly. By market, in 2023, mainland China, the European Union, the United States, Japan, and other regions achieved revenue of 71.24, 50.27, 38.80, 36.76, and 5.263 billion yuan respectively, up 0.7%, -19.1%, -20.4%, -6.4%, and -7.6% year-on-year, accounting for 28.5%, 20.1%, 15.5%, 14.7%, and 21.1% respectively.

In 2023, the revenue of the core customer Uniqlo increased positively year on year, and the share of domestic sports brand customer revenue increased year on year. In terms of customers, in 2023, the revenue share of the company's four core customers fell 2.4 pct to 79.6%. Nike, Uniqlo, Adidas, and Puma achieved revenue of 76.97, 60.02, 36.92, and 2,491 billion yuan respectively, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%, an increase of 2.9%, a decrease of 24.1%, and a decrease of 28.1%. The revenue share was 30.8%, 24.0%, 14.8%, and 10.0% respectively. Domestic sports brand customers accounted for more than 11.0% of total revenue, an increase of 2 pct over the previous year.

2023H2 gross margin continued to improve month-on-month, and the number of inventory turnover days remained at a normal level. In terms of profitability, in 2023, the company's gross margin increased by 2.2 pct to 24.3% year on year, mainly due to: 1) the 2023H2 capacity utilization rate increased year on year; 2) the operating efficiency of new overseas plants gradually increased, the number of new employees hired further increased, and the profit contribution of overseas factories increased.

Among them, 2023H1 gross margin decreased 0.2 pct year over year to 22.4%, and 2023H2 gross margin increased 4.3 pct to 25.8% year over year.

In terms of the cost ratio for the period, the company's expense ratio increased by 1.0 pct to 9.6% year on year. Among them, sales, management, and finance expenses rates were 0.7%, 7.5%, and 1.4%, respectively, and the year-on-year changes were -0.1 pct, +0.5 pct, and +0.6 pct, respectively. Combined with other revenue and revenue, the share of revenue increased 2.5 pcts year over year (mainly interest income and government subsidies), effective tax rate fell 4.5 pct to 8.8% year on year, and exchange earnings declined. Under the combined influence, the company's net profit margin to mother increased 1.9 pct to 18.3% year on year in 2023. Among them, 2023H1 net profit margin increased 1.0 pct to 18.4% year on year, and 2023H2 net profit margin increased 2.6 pct year on year to 18.1% year on year. In terms of inventory, as of the end of 2023, the company's inventory was 6.125 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%. The number of inventory turnover days was 120 days, an increase of 11 days over the previous year, and is within the normal historical range.

Investment advice

In the second half of 2023, the decline in the company's revenue side narrowed. Although the recovery fell short of market expectations, the gross sales margin continued to improve month-on-month as overseas factory efficiency improved and capacity utilization increased. In 2023, the company has further improved in terms of green production, product diversification, and rapid order response and delivery. In the medium to long term, the company's core competitive advantage in vertical integration of fabrics and garments will not change. The diversified product layout is expected to continue to increase customer share and enrich the customer matrix. The increase in overseas garment production capacity is expected to drive a continuous increase in profit levels. We expect the company's 2024-2026 earnings per share to be 3.59, 4.13, and 4.68 yuan, respectively. The closing price on March 26 corresponds to the company's 2024-2026 PE 16.6, 14.5, and 12.8 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy-A” rating.

Risk warning

Domestic market orders fell short of expectations; exchange rates fluctuated greatly; overseas cotton prices fluctuated greatly.

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The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

申洲国际(02313.HK)：海外成衣产能占比过半 2023H2销售毛利率环比改善

Shenzhou International (02313.HK): Overseas garment production capacity accounts for more than half of 2023H2 gross sales margin improved month-on-month

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