The company released the 2023 annual report results announcement: 2023 revenue of 6.608 billion yuan (YoY +4.5%, the following are all year-on-year ratios), mainly due to the rapid release of innovative drugs, and revenue of innovative drugs of 4.756 billion yuan (+15.2%), accounting for 72%, breaking a new high. R&D, sales, and management expenses were 1,563 billion yuan (-9.6%), 2,356 million yuan (-1.9%), and 499 million yuan (+12.4%), respectively. Expenses rates were 23.7%, 35.7%, and 7.6%, respectively, with steady decline. Net profit attributable to mother was 715 million yuan (-23.2%), mainly affected by changes in the fair value of investment financial assets.
The neurological sector was affected by price cuts from Pioneering, and revenue from cancer exemption increased steadily. By sector, revenue from the neurological sector in 2023 was 1,969 billion yuan (-13.1%), accounting for 29.8% of total revenue, mainly affected by Xianbixin's medical insurance price reduction; revenue from the oncology sector was 1,576 billion yuan (+10.2%), accounting for 23.9%; revenue from the self-protection sector was 1,415 billion yuan (+10.5%), accounting for 21.4%, mainly due to 21% year-on-year increase; revenue from other sectors was about 1,648 billion yuan (+22.3%), accounting for 24.9%.
Self-developed+BD two-wheel drive, more new drugs have entered the harvest period. (1) Tumors: According to the company's 2023 report, Cosella's NDA for patients with ES-SCLC for second-line chemotherapy has been accepted by CDE, and real estate has been approved in Hainan, which will further reduce production costs; the marketing application for CMAB009 first-line CRC treatment has been accepted by the CDE and is expected to become the first cetuoxy EGFR monoclonal antibody to be marketed in China; (2) Non-tumors: Xianbisin sublingual tablets are expected to be approved within the year; Lee Raison is expected in Q3 this year A marketing application was submitted to treat insomnia; ADC189 is expected to be declared as a treatment for influenza within the year; ledecibimab (IL-4R) is communicating before applying for marketing to treat AD.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company's EPS for 24-26 is estimated to be 0.42/0.52/0.61 yuan/share, respectively. The company successfully innovated and transformed. 25x PE was given in 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value of HK$11.79 per share (HKD/CNY=0.9), maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. Risk of R&D failure, product sales falling short of expectations, market competition exceeding expectations, etc.