Investors were disappointed with Changchun BCHT Biotechnology Co.'s (SHSE:688276) earnings, despite the strong profit numbers. We think that the market might be paying attention to some underlying factors that they find to be concerning.
Zooming In On Changchun BCHT Biotechnology's Earnings
One key financial ratio used to measure how well a company converts its profit to free cash flow (FCF) is the accrual ratio. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.
That means a negative accrual ratio is a good thing, because it shows that the company is bringing in more free cash flow than its profit would suggest. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".
Over the twelve months to December 2023, Changchun BCHT Biotechnology recorded an accrual ratio of 0.23. We can therefore deduce that its free cash flow fell well short of covering its statutory profit. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of CN¥215m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of CN¥501.0m. We also note that Changchun BCHT Biotechnology's free cash flow was actually negative last year as well, so we could understand if shareholders were bothered by its outflow of CN¥215m.
That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.
Our Take On Changchun BCHT Biotechnology's Profit Performance
Changchun BCHT Biotechnology's accrual ratio for the last twelve months signifies cash conversion is less than ideal, which is a negative when it comes to our view of its earnings. Because of this, we think that it may be that Changchun BCHT Biotechnology's statutory profits are better than its underlying earnings power. But the happy news is that, while acknowledging we have to look beyond the statutory numbers, those numbers are still improving, with EPS growing at a very high rate over the last year. Of course, we've only just scratched the surface when it comes to analysing its earnings; one could also consider margins, forecast growth, and return on investment, among other factors. So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing Changchun BCHT Biotechnology at this point in time. At Simply Wall St, we found 1 warning sign for Changchun BCHT Biotechnology and we think they deserve your attention.
Today we've zoomed in on a single data point to better understand the nature of Changchun BCHT Biotechnology's profit. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.