Kunlun Energy (0135.HK): Plan to increase dividend payout ratio implemented

華泰證券 · Mar 26

2023 年核心利润同比-2.2%，派息比例上升，上调目标价昆仑能源发布业绩，2023 年公司实现营收1,774 亿元、同比+3.2%，归母净利56.8 亿元、同比+8.7%，核心利润61.4 亿元、同比-2.2%，核心利润低于华泰预测（66.0 亿元）。批发气价差回落，下调天然气销售利润率预测；部分油田勘探合同到期，下调勘探与生产收入预测；我们预计公司2024-26年核心利润为64.6/67.3/71.1 亿元（前值：71.4/77.8/-亿元）。目标价8.15港币（前值：8.11 港币，基于9x 2024PE），基于10x 2024 年预期PE 和港币/人民币汇率0.92。目标PE 高于三年平均7 倍PE，公司盈利的现金质量扎实，有望支撑项目收购、业务发展以及派息比例上升，或带来长期价值重估。公司2023 年核心利润派息比例同比提升5pp 至40%，对应股息率4.4%；公司计划在2025 年达成派息比例45%的目标。维持“买入”评级。

24-26 年零售气量增速有望优于同行，零售气价差稳定2023 年公司零售气量同比+9.2%，高于全国表观消费量（+7.6%），但低于华泰预测（+10.1%）；其中工业/商业公服气量同比+15.5%/+11.1%。考虑到公司城燃项目扩张和工业客户开发的进展，我们预计2024-26 年零售气量同比+10.3/+10.0/+9.6%。2023 年公司零售气价差维持在0.50 元/方，符合华泰预测；2021 年以来公司零售气价差波动幅度显著低于同行，得益于可靠稳定的资源保障和更高的工商业气量占比。随着国内天然气顺价机制的逐步完善，我们预计2024-26 年公司零售气价差有望稳定在0.50 元/方。

LNG 接收站处理量同比如期转正，LNG 工厂扭亏为盈2023 年公司LNG 接收站整体处理量同比+3.1%，低于华泰预测（+4%），但下半年LNG 接收站平均负荷率和处理量环比均有显著回升，体现出公司优化工作成果。2023 年公司 LNG 工厂加工量同比+1.6%，高于华泰预测（-2%），平均负荷率同比升1.1pp 至45.4%。下半年LNG 工厂负荷率环比上升，带动LNG 工厂实现整体扭亏为盈，我们预计2024-26 年LNG 工厂加工量有望实现同比+7%/+5%/+3%。

强大现金流有望支撑新业务发展以及派息率提升2023 年公司经营活动现金流/自由现金流均远高于核心利润。在强大的现金流支持下，公司持续扩张城燃业务版图，2023 年公司新增12 个城燃项目。

公司新业务以风光气电融合为切入点，已获取新能源指标4.3GW。公司2023年拟每股派息人民币28.38 分，当前股息率为4.4%，核心利润派息比例同比提升5pp 至40%；公司计划提升派息比例并在2025 年达成45%的目标。

风险提示：内需增长放缓；并购交易不达预期；全球天然气市场不确定性。

Core profit in 2023 was -2.2% year-on-year, and the dividend ratio increased. The target price of Kunlun Energy was raised. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 177.4 billion yuan, +3.2% year over year, net profit of 5.68 billion yuan, +8.7% year over year, core profit of 6.14 billion yuan, -2.2% year over year, and core profit lower than Huatai's forecast (6.60 billion yuan). The wholesale gas price spread declined, and the profit margin forecast for natural gas sales was lowered; some oil field exploration contracts expired, and exploration and production revenue forecasts were lowered; we expect the company's core profit for 2024-26 to be 64.6/67.3/7.11 billion yuan (previous value: 71.4/77.8 billion yuan). Target price of HK$8.15 (previous value: HK$8.11, based on 9x 2024PE), based on 10x 2024 expected PE and HKD/RMB exchange rate of 0.92. The target PE is 7 times higher than the three-year average PE. The cash quality of the company's profit is solid, which is expected to support project acquisitions, business development, and an increase in dividend payout ratio, or lead to long-term value revaluation. The company's 2023 core profit dividend ratio increased by 5pp to 40% year-on-year, corresponding to a dividend rate of 4.4%; the company plans to achieve the target dividend ratio of 45% in 2025. Maintain a “buy” rating.

The retail gas volume growth rate in 24-26 is expected to be superior to that of peers. The retail gas price gap stabilizes +9.2% year-on-year in 2023, higher than the country's apparent consumption (+7.6%), but lower than Huatai's forecast (+10.1%); among them, industrial/commercial service volume is +15.5%/+11.1% year-on-year. Considering the expansion of the company's urban combustion projects and the progress of industrial customer development, we expect retail gas volume to be +10.3/+10.0/ +9.6% year-on-year in 2024-26. In 2023, the company's retail gas price spread remained at 0.50 yuan/square, in line with Huatai's forecast; since 2021, the company's retail gas price spread fluctuated significantly lower than that of its peers, thanks to reliable and stable resource guarantees and a higher share of industrial and commercial climate. With the gradual improvement of the domestic natural gas price mechanism, we expect the company's retail gas price spread to stabilize at 0.50 yuan/square meter in 2024-26.

The processing capacity of LNG terminals was corrected on schedule. The LNG factory turned a loss and the overall processing capacity of the company's LNG terminals in 2023 was +3.1%, lower than Huatai's forecast (+4%). However, the average load rate and processing capacity of LNG terminals both rebounded significantly from month to month in the second half of the year, showing the results of the company's optimization work. In 2023, the processing volume of the company's LNG plant was +1.6% year over year, higher than Huatai's forecast (-2%), and the average load rate increased by 1.1 pp to 45.4% year on year. The load rate of LNG plants increased month-on-month in the second half of the year, driving LNG plants to turn an overall loss into profit. We expect LNG plant processing volume to reach +7%/+5%/+3% year-on-year in 2024-26.

Strong cash flow is expected to support new business development and increase dividend payout rates. The cash flow/free cash flow from the company's operating activities in 2023 was far higher than core profit. With strong cash flow support, the company continued to expand its urban combustion business map. In 2023, the company added 12 new urban combustion projects.

The company's new business uses the integration of wind, light, gas and electricity as an entry point, and has obtained 4.3GW of new energy indicators. The company plans to pay a dividend of RMB 28.38 per share in 2023. The current dividend rate is 4.4%, and the core profit dividend ratio will increase by 5pp to 40% year on year; the company plans to increase the dividend ratio and achieve the target of 45% by 2025.

Risk warning: Domestic demand growth is slowing; mergers and acquisitions falling short of expectations; global gas market uncertainty.

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昆仑能源(0135.HK)：派息率提升计划落地

Kunlun Energy (0135.HK): Plan to increase dividend payout ratio implemented

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