在国内销售市场承压的背景下，公司2023 年销售数据实现正增长。2023 年全年权益销售金额1379.6 亿元，权益销售面积666.4 万平方米，同比分别增长13.5%和9.3%，在克而瑞全口径销售金额榜单排名第8（2022 年排名第10）。同时公司持续布局热点区域，土地储备进一步优化。2023 年公司全年获取78 宗地块，总地价约1169 亿元，拿地货值2180 亿元，分别同比增长42%、48%，拿地权益比73%，拿地强度高达61.9%。截至2023 年底，公司总土储1551.5 万平方米，土储货值2668 亿元，其中一二线城市占比84%，2022-2023 年高毛利项目占比70%。Operating performance grew steadily, and sufficient land storage guarantee performance was released, maintaining the “buy” rating. C&D International Group released its 2023 annual report. The annual revenue/net profit to mother was 1344.3/4.34 billion yuan, up 34.9%/2.8% year on year; basic earnings per share were 2.29 yuan/share, and it is proposed to distribute a discovery dividend of HK$1.3 per share, with a dividend ratio of 51%, for a total of 2.23 billion yuan. Based on the closing price of the announcement date, the dividend rate is about 10%.
Considering the impact of the downturn in the sales market on the company, we downgraded 2024-2025 and added a profit forecast for 2026. The net profit for 2024-2026 is 53.2, 64.5, and 7.83 billion yuan (the original 2024-2025 was 68.2, 8.98 billion yuan), corresponding EPS was 2.8, 3.4, and 4.1 yuan, and the PE corresponding to the current stock price is 5.3, 4.4, and 3.6 times. Considering that the company's land acquisition remains strong, the performance is expected to continue to grow, so we maintain the “buy” rating.
Sales rankings bucked the trend, and investment and land acquisition maintained a high intensity
Against the backdrop of pressure on the domestic sales market, the company achieved positive growth in sales data in 2023. Equity sales for the full year of 2023 were 137.96 billion yuan, and the equity sales area was 6.664 million square meters, up 13.5% and 9.3% year-on-year respectively, ranking 8th in Kerry's full-caliber sales list (ranked 10th in 2022). At the same time, the company continues to lay out hot areas and further optimizes land reserves. In 2023, the company acquired 78 parcels of land throughout the year, with a total land price of about 116.9 billion yuan and a land acquisition value of 218 billion yuan. The year-on-year increase was 42% and 48%, respectively. The land acquisition equity ratio was 73%, and the land acquisition intensity was as high as 61.9%. By the end of 2023, the company's total land storage was 15.515 million square meters, with a land storage value of 266.8 billion yuan, of which Tier 1 and 2 cities accounted for 84%, and high-margin projects accounted for 70% in 2022 to 2023.
Property development helps increase revenue, and profitability has declined
The year-on-year increase in the company's revenue in 2023 was due to the increase in property development revenue. Property development revenue in 2023 was 130.1 billion yuan, an increase of 34.6% over the previous year. However, the company's profitability declined. The gross profit margin and net profit margin in 2023 were 11.1% and 4.7% respectively, down 4.2 and 0.9 percentage points from 2022, respectively, mainly affected by the relatively low level of gross profit of carry-over projects. The company continues to pay attention to cost control and efficiency. The management, sales and finance rates in 2023 were 2.1%, 3.2%, and 0.3%, respectively, down 2.3, 0.4, and 0.5 percentage points from the previous year.
There is plenty of cash on hand, and the pressure on financing costs continues to drop
As of the end of 2023, the company had cash in hand of 54.16 billion yuan, an increase of 7.7% over the previous year. The company's interest-bearing debt maturing within one year is about 10.77 billion yuan. The short-term cash debt ratio is 5.0 billion, and the short-term debt repayment pressure is small. At the same time, the company's financing costs continued to drop. As of the end of 2023, the average financing cost for existing interest-bearing debt was 3.75%, down 58BP from the previous year.
Risk warning: The recovery of the real estate industry fell short of expectations, and the decline in company sales fell short of expectations.
