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起底欧洲央行候选人 「激进派」欧洲央行或成真?

Will the ECB candidate, the “radical faction” of the ECB candidates, come true?

新浪美股 ·  Feb 19, 2018 16:49

Huitong Network News--The term of office of European Central Bank President Draghi ends in October, and speculation about his successor is gradually becoming the focus of market attention. Let's take a look at what the hot candidates are and what impact they may have on the monetary policy of the European Bank.

The term of office of European Central Bank President Draghi ends in October, and speculation about his successor is gradually becoming the focus of market attention. The next ECB president will be chosen by EU governments, who may have to withdraw from the ECB's unprecedented stimulus package and rebuild its cushion in response to a possible future financial crisis.

Weidmann, president of the Bundesbank and board of governors of the European Central Bank, is one of the early favourites, and a large number of candidates are also under consideration, according to media polls. The change of ECB presidency is just one of a series of personnel changes in Europe, and its possible choice will also affect the future monetary policy path of one of the world's most important central banks. Let's take a look at what the hot candidates are and what impact they may have on the monetary policy of the European Bank.

Who are the candidates? What are the chances of being elected?

JensWeidmann, president of the Bundesbank and member of the European Central Bank.

Weidmann, 49, president of the Bundesbank and member of the European Central Bank, is the youngest Bundesbank president in history.Weidmann has always criticized the loose monetary policy of the European Central Bank.The move won him support in Germany, but Draghi criticized his "all-inclusive" attitude. If other eurozone countries worry that Mr Weidmann will withdraw too hastily from loose monetary policy, that will be bad for him. And although Germany is the largest economy in the euro zone, it has never had a German president of the European Central Bank.

After studying in Germany and France, Mr Weidmann worked at the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and left the German central bank (Bundesbank) between 2006 and 2011 as an adviser to German Chancellor AngelaMerkel.

FrancoisVilleroy, governor of the Bank of France and member of the European Central Bank.

If the ECB refuses to appoint a German president, Valerois, the governor of the Bank of France, will be the most likely candidate. Since taking office as the Bank of France in 2015Villaroy has always supported Draghi's stimulus policy.. At the same time, he also worked for BNP Paribas, which made him acutely aware of banks' concerns about negative ECB interest rates.

Ireland is the only founding member of the euro zone that has never had an ECB executive, which provides some reason for Ireland's central bank president to take over one of the four ECB posts that will be replaced in the next two years. Lien, 48, was an economics professor at TrinityCollege Dublin and received his doctorate from HarvardUniversity. Recently, he worked with his task force to design a safe European asset to prevent a government debt crisis.

The Irish government nominated Lien as a candidate for vice president of the ECB this year, and he could also be one of the candidates to succeed Pratt, chief economist of the ECB.

IMF Chairman Lagarde (ChristineLagarde)

In a world of male-dominated economic policy makers, Ms Lagarde broke with tradition. She served as French finance minister from 2007 to 2011, making her the first woman to hold this position in the G-8, and she has always been the first female leader of the IMF.

Not only that, but if elected, Lagarde will also become the first ECB president and first president without an economics degree. Like Powell, the new Fed chairman, Lagarde is a trained lawyer.

Hansen, 59, was born in Chicago.Has been one of the staunchest critics of quantitative easing.He opposes hasty bond purchases in 2015 and supports an exit from easing in 2018.

He is the son of Estonian immigrants, holds a doctorate in economics from Harvard University and is the World Bank's chief economist for China. His appointment will be a strong signal to the Baltic states' efforts to join the single currency reform.

KlaasKnot, governor of the Dutch central bank.

The 50-year-old Dutch central bank governor is one of the youngest members of the ECB board. He also agrees with Weidman on the issue of monetary stimulus.Object to maintaining asset purchases for too long

His seven-year term ends in June, and he said he was "free" to run for the second round. But the market used to have a Dutch president of the European Central Bank, which may be against him.

Liikanen, governor of the Bank of Finland (ErkkiLiikanen)

The 67-year-old Finnish central bank governor will bring decades of Brussels experience to ECB presidents as governments struggle to address the structural shortcomings of the euro. In 2012, at the height of the debt crisis, he chaired a group of experts who worked out a reform plan for the EU banking sector. It's only partially realized.

Mr. Liikanen was elected to the Finnish Parliament at the age of 21, and since then he has served as European Commissioner, Minister of Finance, Ambassador to Brussels and Secretary General of the SDP. He was appointed governor of the central bank in 2004 and stepped down this year. He's a close confidant of Draghi.Support quantitative easing

KlausRegling, head of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF)

As one of the founders of the euro, Regling worked for 10 years at the German Ministry of Finance, where he helped prepare for economic and monetary union. As head of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the 67-year-old candidate already has an in-depth understanding of the survival plight of the euro zone.

Regling has held various positions in the public and private sectors in Europe, Asia and the United States, including at the IMF and the European Commission (EuropeanCommission).

Finnish central bank official OlliRehn

Mr Rehn, 55, may be one of the new faces of the ECB, but he has been involved in economic affairs for years. As the EU commissioner in charge of the euro during the eurozone debt crisis, he is a staunch advocate of fiscal discipline, serving as economy minister and overseeing the country's recovery from three years of recession before returning to Finnish politics in 2015.

He was appointed to the board of directors of the Bank of Finland in February last year and is widely expected to replace outgoing president Liikanen in 2018.

LuisMariaLinde, governor of the European Central Bank and president of the Bank of Spain.

Linde, 72, has more than 20 years of experience at the Bank of Spain and also works in the economic and trade sectors. In June 2012, two days after the Spanish government asked for a bailout of the troubled banking sector, Linde, who had retired, returned as governor of the Bank of Spain.

Governor of the Bank of Slovenia (BostjanJazbec)

Yazbeci, the 47-year-old governor of the Bank of Slovenia, helped guide his country through a banking crisis in 2013. Yazbec, a former adviser to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has always adhered to the ECB's attitude towards monetary policy, he saidUntil inflation gets back on track, the stimulus should remain the same

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