The Zhitong Finance App learned that Guojin Securities released a research report saying that in January-February 2024, the cumulative fuel cell system capacity was 42.35 MW, an increase of 57% over the previous year. The overall industry is expected to show a growing trend. Against the backdrop of the implementation of policy rules and the increase in the maturity of the industrial chain, the volume is still highly certain. In 2024, the hydrogen energy and fuel cell industry will enter a period of acceleration. The implementation of fuel cell vehicles and green hydrogen projects will accelerate dramatically. Hydrogen energy and fuel cell manufacturing are currently the two main lines. It is recommended to focus on Furui Special Equipment (300228.SZ), Cowell (688551.SH), Huaguang Huaneng (600475.SH), Shenghui Technology (300423.SZ), and Beijing (00187).

The main views of Guojin Securities are as follows:

FCV has an installed capacity of 7.28 MW in February and a cumulative installed capacity of 42.35 MW in January-February

Guojin Securities pointed out that in February 2024, the installed capacity of fuel cell systems was 7.28 MW, a year-on-year decrease of 33.8%. The first quarter was a low season for shipments. Short-term fluctuations did not change the long-term positive trend. The cumulative fuel cell system capacity from January to February 2024 was 42.35 MW, an increase of 57% year on year. The overall industry is expected to show a growing trend. Against the backdrop of the implementation of policy rules and the improvement of the maturity of the industrial chain, volume is still highly deterministic.

The number of FCVs insured in February was 54, and the cumulative insurance volume in January-February was 404

In February 2024, the number of insured vehicles was 54, a year-on-year decrease of 57.48%. In February 2024, the total number of fuel cell systems installed was 54, all commercial vehicles. Due to differences in statistical caliber, FCV production and sales for February announced by the China Automobile Association were 287 and 188 units, respectively, up 187% and 370% from the previous year. The cumulative insurance volume for January-February 2024 was 404 vehicles, an increase of 68.33% over the previous year. With the issuance of subsidies for the model urban agglomeration, the improvement of infrastructure facilities, and the deployment of demonstration application scenarios, FCV has entered a phase of acceleration.

Green-controlled transmission has the highest monthly installed capacity, and Yihuatong climbed to the top in January-February

In February, Green Control Transmission had the highest installed capacity, at 4000 kW, accounting for 55%; Huahydrogen Green Power ranked second, with an installed capacity of 1992 kW, accounting for 27%; and the third was Kunhua New Energy, with an installed capacity of 625 kW, accounting for 9%. From January to February 2024, the top five system companies were Yihuatong, Jiehydrogen Technology, Kunhua New Energy, Green Control Transmission, and Huahydrogen Green. Among them, Yihuatong had the highest cumulative installed capacity of 11580.5kW, accounting for 27%; JieH2 had the second cumulative installed capacity of 9620 kW, accounting for 23%; and Kunhua New Energy had the third cumulative installed capacity of 9230 kW, accounting for 22%.

Geely Auto tops the monthly insurance list

In February, Geely had the highest number of commercial vehicles, with 24, accounting for 44%; Foshan Flying Spur ranked second, with 20 vehicles, accounting for 37%; and Jinlong United third, with 5 vehicles, accounting for 9%. From January to February 2024, Meijin Auto had the highest cumulative insurance volume, with 148 vehicles, accounting for 36%; Jinlong Joint had the second highest cumulative insurance volume, with 54 vehicles, accounting for 13%; and Chengdu Universiade had the third highest cumulative insurance volume of 45 vehicles, accounting for 11%.

Model urban agglomeration production and marketing: Beijing model urban agglomeration has the highest number of promotions in a single month

According to the statistics of the five major urban agglomerations, in February 2024, the Beijing urban agglomeration had the highest number of vehicles, with 24 vehicles, followed by the Shanghai, Henan, and Hebei model urban agglomerations, all with 2 vehicles. The Guangdong urban agglomeration has yet to land. From January to February 2024, the total number of vehicles landed in the Henan urban agglomeration and the Hebei urban agglomeration was 203. Both places mainly include Zhangjiakou and Shanghai, contributing 138 and 65 vehicles respectively, followed by the Shanghai Model Urban Agglomeration, with 71 vehicles, including Shanghai and Suzhou, contributing 65 and 6 vehicles respectively, and the Beijing and Guangdong urban agglomeration with 30 and 22 vehicles respectively.

Global vehicle production and sales: 1) Japan: In January 2024, Japan's Toyota FCV sold 155 units globally, down 50.6% year on year; 2) South Korea: In February 2024, the global sales volume of Korean Hyundai FCV was 332 units, down 64.07% year on year; 3) US: In February 2024, FCV sales in the US were 67 units, a decrease of 74.6% year on year. In February 2024, Japan's Toyota FCV accounted for 85% of sales in the US.

Green hydrogen project electrolyzer tender: From January to March 2024, a total of 3 green hydrogen projects have been publicly tendered for electrolyzers, with a total bid volume of 67MW of electrolyzers. A total of 19 green hydrogen projects have been publicly tendered for electrolyzers throughout 2023, with a total bid volume of 1,882 MW of electrolyzers. Judging from the commencement of the green hydrogen project and the EPC bidding situation, a total of 180,700 tons of green hydrogen projects have already started, and 546,390 nm3/h, and nearly 735 electrolyzers will be tendered one after another. Judging from the winning bid share of hydrogen production project electrolyzer companies, Perry Hydrogen Energy/Longji Hydrogen Energy/Sunshine Power ranked in the top three, accounting for 16%/14%/13%; most of the electrolyzers that have already been tendered were alkaline, and the average price average/median of alkaline electrolyzer prices of the selected and first successful candidates was 789.597 million yuan/set and 733.75/6.986 million yuan/set (1000 Nm3/h); the average and median prices of PEM electrolyzers were 726.49/7.1438 million yuan (200NmH), respectively.

Risk warning

The policy fell short of expectations; the construction of hydrogen fueling stations fell short of expectations; the reduction in hydrogen gas costs fell short of expectations; and the implementation of the green hydrogen project fell short of expectations.