February benefited from consumption during the peak Spring Festival season. The liquor sector was slightly better than expected. Strong brands achieved better sales growth, and the wholesale price performance of mainstream single products was strong. Currently, the sector's valuation is relatively cost-effective, and it is recommended to lay out high-end liquor and leading real estate companies.
The Zhitong Finance App learned that Open Source Securities released a research report saying that in February, benefiting from consumption during the Spring Festival peak season, the liquor sector was slightly better than expected. Strong brands achieved better sales growth, and the wholesale price performance of mainstream single products was relatively strong. Currently, the sector's valuation is relatively cost-effective, and it is recommended to lay out high-end liquor and leading real estate wine companies. Popular products have maintained a gradual recovery, residents' households and catering channels in the condiment sector are recovering steadily, and Zhonghu Hi-Tech (600872.SH), which has its own expectations of improvement, is expected to benefit. The incremental dividends of the casual snack industry still exist, and the industry maintains a high level of prosperity. Yanjin Shop (002847.SZ) and Ganyuan Food (002991.SZ) are still expected to benefit.
The main views of Open Source Securities are as follows:
Alcohol: Online sales increased, concentration of liquor and beer decreased
According to Open Source Securities, in February 2024, the online sales volume of the Alibaba liquor industry reached 1.22 billion yuan, up 91.3% year on year, sales volume increased 50.1% year on year, and average sales price increased 27.5% year on year. Domestic liquor sales in the sub-sector performed relatively well in February, with a year-on-year increase of 138.3%. Domestic liquor accounts for the highest share of online sales, reaching 70.8%. The concentration of leading brands in the liquor industry was -21.9 pct to 35.6% month-on-month, and the concentration of leading brands in the beer industry was -3.2 pct to 25.5% month-on-month.
Food: Online sales declined, and the concentration of snack food, grain, oil and fast food industries decreased
(1) Snack food: In February 2024, the online sales volume of the Alibaba snack food industry reached 2.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%. In terms of split volume price, sales volume increased 5.3% year on year, and average sales price decreased 5.9% year on year. Looking at the molecular industry, the performance of nuts in the February 2024 sub-industry was relatively good, with a year-on-year increase of 74.1%, followed by traditional pastries, with a growth rate of 20.2%. The concentration of leading brands in the snack food industry was -4.0pct to 11.9% month-on-month.
(2) Grain and oil fast food: In February 2024, the online sales volume of the Alibaba grain, oil and fast food industry reached 1.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.3%. Sales volume decreased 9.2% year over year, and average sales price decreased 7.7% year over year. Looking at the molecular industry, meat products performed well in February, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.2%. The market share of leading brands in the grain, oil and fast food industry was -0.85pct to 10.9% month-on-month.
Beverage preparation: Online sales of dairy products, packaged drinks and brewed muesli declined
(1) Dairy products: In February 2024, the online sales volume of the Alibaba dairy industry reached 700 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 23.8%. Sales volume decreased by 12.9% year on year, and average sales price decreased by 12.5% year on year. Low-temperature milk performed well in February 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 10.15%. Room temperature milk accounts for a relatively high online sales volume, reaching 37.0%. The concentration of leading brands in the dairy industry was -5.7pct to 47.0% month-on-month.
(2) Brewed muesli: In February 2024, the online sales volume of the Ali brewed cereal industry reached 80 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.8%. In terms of split volume price, sales volume decreased 3.7% year on year, and average price decreased 16.6% year on year. The concentration of leading brands in the brewed cereal industry was -7.0 pct to 32.3% month-on-month.
(3) Packaged beverages: In February 2024, the online sales volume of the Alibaba packaged beverage industry reached 340 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%. Among them, sales volume decreased 4.5% year on year, and average sales price decreased 17.2% year on year. Looking at the molecular industry, fruit-flavored beverages performed well in February 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 40.3%; fruit and vegetable juices followed, with a year-on-year increase of 18.1%. Fruit and vegetable juice products account for a relatively high online sales volume, reaching 26.7%.
Risk warning: Macroeconomic performance falls short of expectations, food safety risks, and increased industry competitiveness.