数控系统板块高增长，α属性展现：根据中国机床工具工业协会数据，23 年机床工具行业营业收入同比下降10.3%、利润总额同比下降35.8%，行业整体表现偏弱，在此背景下，公司数控系统与机床业务实现营收8.92 亿元，同比增长26.22%，α属性较强。我们认为主要由于近年在国际局势变化、国家政策刺激综合作用下，公司高端数控系统的认知度快速提升，获得了大批优质客户。例如根据公司年报信息，公司高档数控系统与山东豪迈、东莞埃弗米、武重机床、天水星火、宁江机床、福建威诺、宁波海天等企业合作批量配套，目前客户覆盖面持续加大的趋势较为明确，高端数控系统国产替代有望加速推进，继续看好24 年公司数控系统板块继续实现高增长。同时数控系统及机床业务23 年实现毛利率38.65%，同比提升2.76pcts，我们认为主要是由于公司高端数控系统收入占比提升带来结构优化，后续伴随公司高端数控系统持续增长毛利率有进一步提升空间。occurrences
On March 24, 2024, the company released its annual report for the year 23, which achieved operating income of 2.115 billion yuan, an increase of 27.13% over the previous year; realized net profit of 0.27 million yuan, an increase of 45.7% over the previous year (according to the data after the change in the accounting policy of the company's 23 annual report, net profit for the year 22 was adjusted to 0.19 million yuan).
reviews
The CNC system sector is growing rapidly, showing alpha attributes: According to data from the China Machine Tool Industry Association, the machine tool industry's revenue in '23 fell 10.3% year on year, total profit fell 35.8% year on year, and the overall performance of the industry was weak. Against this background, the company's CNC system and machine tool business achieved revenue of 892 million yuan, an increase of 26.22% year on year, and alpha attributes were strong. We believe that mainly due to recent changes in the international situation and the combined effects of national policy incentives, the company's awareness of high-end CNC systems has rapidly increased, and it has gained a large number of high-quality customers. For example, according to the company's annual report, the company's high-end CNC system cooperated with companies such as Shandong Haomai, Dongguan Evermi, Wuzhong Machine Tool, Tianshui Starfire, Ningjiang Machine Tool, Fujian Weinuo, and Ningbo Haitian for batch support. Currently, the trend of continuous increase in customer coverage is quite clear. Domestic replacement of high-end CNC systems is expected to accelerate, and the company's CNC system sector will continue to achieve high growth in 24 years. At the same time, the CNC system and machine tool business achieved a gross profit margin of 38.65% in 23 years, an increase of 2.76 pcts over the previous year. We believe that this is mainly due to structural optimization brought about by the company's increased share of revenue from high-end CNC systems, and there is room for further improvement in gross margin as the company's high-end CNC systems continue to grow.
Industrial robots and intelligent production lines are growing at a high rate, and there are plenty of on-hand orders. In '23, the company's industrial robots and intelligent production line segment generated revenue of 1,181 billion yuan, an increase of 35.53% over the previous year. Among them, the revenue of the intelligent production line was 817 million yuan, up 66.26% year on year, with new orders of 1,293 million yuan, with orders in hand as of the end of 23, 854 million yuan; the revenue of the robot itself was 301 million yuan, a decrease of 9.75% year on year, and current orders by the end of 23 million yuan.
Operating cash flow improved markedly in '23. The net cash flow from the company's operating activities in '23 was $212 million, an increase of $244 million over the same period last year. The company's inventory turnover ratio and accounts receivable turnover ratio have all improved in '23, and operational efficiency has improved.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
It is expected to achieve net profit of 1.07/1.61/217 billion yuan from 24 to 26, corresponding to the current PE60X/40X/30X. Considering the high revenue growth in the company's CNC systems sector, the growth prospects for high-end CNC systems in particular are broad, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Domestic substitution progress falls short of expectations, economic recovery falls short of expectations, and risk of asset depreciation.
