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金地集团(600383):收入与盈利能力双降 去杠杆依旧是主基调

Jindi Group (600383): Decrease in revenue and profitability, deleveraging is still the main tone

長江證券 ·  Mar 24

Description of the event

The company announced that in 2023, the company achieved revenue of 98.13 billion yuan (-18.4%), net profit to mother of 890 million yuan (-85.5%), net profit after deduction of 1.1 billion yuan (profit of 5.7 billion yuan for the same period last year), and a dividend rate of 10.0%.

Incident comments

Revenue and gross margin both fell, and the increase in tax ratios and minority shareholders' profit/loss ratio dragged down performance. In 2023, the company's revenue was 98.13 billion yuan (-18.4%), and the amount of settlement resources (-21.1%) price (-0.7%) dropped, leading to a year-on-year negative revenue; net profit to mother of 890 million yuan (-85.5%), and the decline in earnings to mother was greater than revenue, mainly due to a year-on-year decrease of 3.3 pct to 17.4% (of which gross margin of development business decreased 3.8 pcts to 16.2% year on year), and net investment income decreased by 50.8% year on year to 1.96 billion yuan. Expense rate, tax rate, and minority shareholders' profit and loss ratio respectively increased year on year 1.6 pct, 17.4 pct, and 38.8 pct went to 8.9%, 47.4%, and 72.2%. The above factors together led to a sharp decline in return performance; in addition, asset and credit impairment of 3.37 billion yuan (4.73 billion yuan in the same period last year) also dragged down performance to a certain extent. As of the end of 2023, advance receipts on the company's account were 65.81 billion yuan (-14.3%), and advance receiving/settlement revenue = 0.77X. Later settlement revenue may still be under pressure.

The sales scale is at the top of the industry, and investment in land acquisition is becoming more cautious. In 2023, the company's sales volume was 153.55 billion yuan (-30.8%), ranking 10th in the industry, with an average sales price of 17,500 yuan/square meter (-19.5%). The sales scale is still at the top of the industry. As the capital chain tightens, the company's land acquisition investment is cautious, focusing on the layout of high-energy cities such as Shenzhen, Dongguan, and Shanghai, with a full-caliber land acquisition amount of 12.5 billion yuan (-66.0%), land acquisition area of 950,000 square meters (-61.7%), and an average land acquisition price of 13,200 yuan/square meter (-11.3%); land acquisition intensity in terms of amount and area decreased by 8.5 pct and 13.5 pct year-on-year, respectively. By the end of 2023, the company had not settled 41 million square meters of soil storage (-20.9%). Soil storage is still on a certain scale, but the share of marketable new inventory has declined. The company's new starting/completion volumes in 2023 were 313/13.43 million square meters respectively, down 40.0% and 5.3% year on year, completing 72% and 99% of the planned targets in the middle of last year; the 2024 plan was 183/10.74 million square meters of new construction. The new construction plan decreased 48.5% year over year to the plan, and the completion plan actually fell 20.0%, putting pressure on later completion settlement resources. Sales continue to be weak, the capital chain is getting tighter, and the company's front-end investment and active contraction in construction are rational choices.

Reducing leverage is the main trend, and financing costs continue to decline. As of the end of 2023, the company's interest-bearing liabilities totaled 91.91 billion yuan (-20.2%). Reduced leverage was the company's main trend, with bank loans accounting for 75.5% and long-term debt accounting for 55.6%. The three red line indicators are in the green range, with a balance ratio of 68.7%, a balance ratio of 61.3% after excluding advance payments, and a net debt ratio of 53.2%.

Financing costs continued to decline, and the weighted average cost of debt financing in 2023 was 4.36% (-0.17pct).

Investment advice: Constrained by declining market demand and contraction in industry credit, the company's operating orientation also tends to be cautious; as debt pressure approaches and the capital chain is tightening, the company's attitude of focusing on sales repayment and actively collateralizing high-quality assets in exchange for cash flow is worthy of recognition. As an established high-quality real estate enterprise, the company still has relatively outstanding operating efficiency and resource endowments. If policies are further relaxed and market demand stabilizes, the company is expected to usher in marginal improvements at the management level with efficient operations and excellent brands. The net profit to the mother is expected to be 9.6/10.2/1.05 billion in 2024-2026, with a growth rate of 8.4%/5.7%/3.2%. The corresponding PE is 19.1/18.1/17.5X, maintaining a “gain” rating.

Risk warning

1. Sales declined, cash payments declined, and pressure on the capital chain was further tightened; 2. Asset disposal was blocked, and pressure on the capital chain increased.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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