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绿城管理控股(9979.HK):业务规模稳健增长 多元客户助增长

Greentown Management Holdings (9979.HK): Steady growth in business scale, diversified customers help growth

西南證券 ·  Mar 22, 2024 16:00

The scale of the business is growing steadily, and the capital structure is good. The company's revenue and profit continued to rise in 2023. In 2023, the company's continuous operating revenue was 3.302 billion yuan, up 24.3% year on year; gross profit was about 1.72 billion yuan, up 24.0% year on year; comprehensive gross margin for the period was about 52.2%, basically the same as 52.3% in the same period last year; net profit to mother was 970 million yuan, up 30.8% year on year; the company's cash flow from operating activities was 960 million yuan, up 31.8% year on year. The company had no debt and sufficient cash flow. Among them, commercial construction is still the company's largest source of revenue and profit, with revenue of 2.35 billion yuan in 2023, accounting for 71.0% of total revenue, an increase of 40.5% compared with 1.67 billion yuan in 2022.

The national business layout continues to lead the industry. The company continues to maintain its leading position in the field of asset-light real estate development, maintaining a market share of more than 20% for eight consecutive years. By the end of 2023, the company's contract construction projects had laid out 122 major cities in 29 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China, with a total construction area of 119 million square meters, an increase of 17.9% over the previous year. Under the nationalized layout, major economic regions continue to maintain a large share: the total sales value of contract projects is estimated at about 693.3 billion, accounting for 77.7% of the total saleable value; of these, the Yangtze River Delta Economic Zone project is 289.7 billion, accounting for 32.5%; the Bohai Rim Economic Zone and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration projects are 234.3 billion, accounting for 26.2%; the Pearl River Delta Economic Zone project is 122.8 billion, accounting for 13.8%; and the Chengdu-Chongqing urban agglomeration is 46.5 billion, accounting for 5.2%.

Diversified customer structure to expand business boundaries. The company promptly adjusted its own business structure and deepened business opportunities for state-owned enterprises, financial institutions, etc. In 2023, the company's new development business continued to grow against the trend. The total contract area for the new expansion project was 35.3 million square meters, with government services, state-owned enterprise clients and financial institutions accounting for 74.7%; the estimated construction costs for the new expansion project were 10.37 billion yuan, an increase of 20.5% over the previous year, of which the government, state-owned enterprise clients and financial institutions accounted for about 69.4%. In addition to housing, Xintuo's multi-type business also covers industrial parks, public rental housing, talent apartments, shared property houses, future communities, municipal facilities, businesses, hotels, offices, etc. By the end of 2023, according to the total construction area of contract projects, government business was 32 million square meters, accounting for 26.8%; projects commissioned by state-owned enterprises were 40.9 million square meters, accounting for 34.2%; projects commissioned by private enterprises were 37.9 million square meters, accounting for 31.7%; and 8.8 million square meters of projects commissioned by financial institutions, accounting for 7.3%.

Profit forecasting and investment advice. The estimated net profit for 2024-2026 will be RMB 12.53/15.46/RMB 1,874 billion, and EPS of RMB 0.62/0.77/0.93, respectively. Considering that the company is deeply involved in the field of contract construction, its business reserves are abundant and the growth rate is high, it maintains a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: Risks such as continuing decline in the real estate market, increasing competition in the industry exceeding expectations, and falling short of expectations in business development.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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