维持“增持”评级。 公司发布2023年报，实现营业收入10.14亿元(+22.8%)，主要得益于①核心产品益赛普持续加大市场渗透提升销量；②赛普汀和健尼哌的快速放量；③肿瘤管线与沈阳三生合作及授权的部分款项确认；归母净利润2.95 亿元(+497.6%)，主要得益于：①综合毛利率的提升；②费用控制能力提升；③研发投入资本化增加、费用化减少。考虑到后续仍有较大授权收入确认以及研发费用率持续下滑，维持24-25 年EPS 至0.49/0.50 元，新增26 年EPS 0.54 元，根据DCF 估值法，给予目标价30.96元，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company released its 2023 annual report. The performance is in line with expectations, and both revenue and profit have maintained a high growth rate. The research pipeline is progressing steadily. The core pipeline is expected to submit NDAs in sequence within the next 4 years, which is expected to further boost performance growth.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an “Overweight” rating. The company released its 2023 report, achieving operating revenue of 1,014 million yuan (+22.8%), mainly due to ① the core product Yisaipu's continued increase in market penetration and sales; ② rapid release of Cyptin and Genippe; ③ confirmation of some funds authorized by the Oncology Pipeline and Shenyang Sansheng; net profit of 295 million yuan (+497.6%), mainly due to: ① increase in overall gross margin ②; increased cost control capabilities; ③ increased capitalization of R&D investment and reduced costs. Considering that there are still large authorized revenue confirmations and the R&D cost rate continues to decline, the 24-25 EPS was maintained at 0.49/0.50 yuan, and the 26-year EPS was added at 0.54 yuan. According to the DCF valuation method, a target price of 30.96 yuan was given, maintaining the “gain” rating.
Exaipu increased slightly, while Ceptin and Gennippe continued to grow at a high rate. By sector, pharmaceutical manufacturing revenue was 842 million yuan (+17.3%), accounting for about 83%. Among them: ① Yisaipu's revenue was 572 million yuan (+7.8%), which continued to grow in the context of price cuts, mainly due to the launch of the new prefilled dosage form 23Q2 and the increase in the number of covered hospitals; ② Ciptin's revenue of 226 million yuan (+41.8%), which was due to the high growth rate of hospitals covered and increased recognition; ③ Guanippe's revenue was 44 million yuan (+59.4%), mainly due to the low base effect and increased penetration rate. We expect that in 2024, Ceptin and Gennippe are expected to maintain a high growth rate. Despite price cuts, the penetration rate is expected to increase further, and revenue is expected to remain stable.
Combined with the recognition of corresponding authorized revenue in 2024, revenue is expected to continue to grow steadily throughout the year.
The research pipeline is progressing steadily, and 608 is expected to submit an NDA in 2024. The four core products 608, 613, 611, and 610 are expected to successively submit their first indicative NDAs in 2024-2027. 608 is expected to submit an NDA for psoriasis by the end of 2024; 610 is expected to start phase III enrollment in 2024, and 611 adults with moderate to severe AD and 613 gout arthritis are expected to complete phase III enrollment within 2024. The research pipeline is progressing steadily, and the commercialization team has a certain foundation in the field of immunization, and is looking forward to commercializing core products.
Catalysts: 608 submits NDAs, 611 and 613 complete phase III clinical enrollment Risk tips: risk of R&D failure, risk of sales falling short of expectations, risk of deteriorating competitive landscape
