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“巴菲特指标”创两年新高,拉响股市泡沫警报

The "Buffett Indicator" hits a two-year high, sounding the alarm for stock market bubbles.

環球市場播報 ·  Mar 25 07:46

Source: Global Market Report On Monday, the turnover of US stocks ranked first, closing up 0.75% with a turnover of $38.014 billion. Since the opening on June 10, Nvidia's stock has been trading at adjusted prices after the split. The overall value of Nvidia is not expected to change after the split, and the lower stock price will make it easier for investors to reach. In terms of product structure, the operating income of 10-30 billion yuan products is respectively 401/1288/60 million yuan.

"Stock God" Buffett's favored market indicator has soared to a two-year high of 184%, indicating that the current stock market valuation is too high and may face a devastating crash.

The so-called "Buffett Indicator" refers to the ratio of the total market capitalization to GDP, which is widely used by investors and researchers to measure whether the stock market is overheated. Buffett has described this indicator as the "best single indicator for measuring valuation levels at any given moment."

Data shows that the Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index ($Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index (.W5000FLT.US)$) has surged 9% this year, reaching a historic high with a total market cap of around $51.47 trillion, while the US GDP in the last quarter was $27.94 trillion, resulting in a ratio of 184%.

In 2001, Buffett praised the indicator named after him in an article in Fortune magazine, calling it "possibly the best single indicator for measuring valuation levels at any given moment."

The renowned investor and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway warned that when this indicator approaches the 200% mark, buying stocks would be "playing with fire." He mentioned that when the indicator is at 100%, stock valuations may be reasonable, while at 70% or 80%, they may be close to cheap levels.

Buffett added that when this index soared to record highs during the internet bubble, it should have been a "very strong warning signal", foreshadowing an imminent crash.

Since the beginning of this year, the US stock market has surged to historic highs, prompting some commentators to sound the bubble alarm.

$NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$And.$Microsoft (MSFT.US)$The excitement sparked by ai-related stocks this year, along with the increasing hopes on Wall Street for a substantial rate cut by the Federal Reserve and the US economy avoiding a recession, has fueled the stock market frenzy.

Buffett's favored index proved its worth in early 2022 when it once soared to over 200%. Over the next 12 months,$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$Mainly focused on technology stocks$Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$They respectively plummeted by 19% and 33%.

However, it is worth noting that this indicator is far from perfect because it compares the current stock market value to GDP data from the previous quarter. GDP also does not include overseas income, while the market value of US companies reflects the value of their domestic and international business.

However, for some experts, the indicator returning to high levels before past market disasters is a clear danger signal.

President of Hussman Investment Trust John Hussman and Chief Investment Strategist of B. Riley Wealth Management Paul Dietrich both pointed out that the surge of this indicator is evidence that a bubble may end in a painful burst.

Editor / jayden

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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