Matters:
The company released its 2023 annual report. In 2023, it achieved revenue of $134.43 billion, up 35% year on year; net profit to mother was 5.03 billion yuan, up 2% year on year, and dividend of HK$1.3 billion per share in exchange for shares.
Ping An's point of view:
Revenue and profit both increased, and sales performance was resilient. The company's revenue and net profit to mother both achieved positive growth during the industry adjustment period, with year-on-year increases of 35% and 2% in 2023, respectively; however, the growth rate of net profit to mother fell short of revenue, mainly due to a decline in settlement gross margin (gross profit margin of 11.1% in 2023, 4.2pct year-on-year decline), a decrease in the performance contribution of joint ventures, and an increase in profit and loss for minority shareholders. In 2023, full-caliber sales increased 11.7% year-on-year, and the sales growth rate ranked among the highest among mainstream real estate companies; the sales payback rate was 98%, maintaining a high level; out of more than 70 cities, 46 cities entered the top 10 local sales lists.
The soil storage structure is healthy, the historical burden is light, and the project flow rate is good. According to data from China Index (open market land acquisition) and Kerui (full caliber sales), the company's land acquisition sales area ratio and land acquisition sales amount ratio in the open market in 2023 were 45.6% and 59.7%, respectively, ranking in the top 50 housing enterprises. In 2023, the company added 78 new parcels of land, with a full-caliber land acquisition amount of 116.9 billion yuan, and a land acquisition equity ratio (value to value) of 73%; as of 2023, the company's land storage value was 266.8 billion yuan, of which Tier 1 and 2 accounts for 84%, and 70% of new projects acquired since 2022; the promotion rate of sales during the year was 71%, maintaining a good removal rate.
Strengthen financial and asset structure advantages, and return shareholders with high dividends. The company's “three red lines” indicators continued to be optimized. The balance ratio, net debt ratio, and short cash debt ratio excluding accounts received in advance were 61.6%, 33.6%, and 4.7 times, respectively. Inventories and monetary capital together account for 76% of total assets; the average financing cost was 3.75%, down 58 bps from the end of 2022. The average interest rate for new bank loans during the year was only 2.2%, and the financing advantage continued to be prominent. The 2023 annual dividend of HK$1.3 per share, with a dividend rate of 52% and a dividend rate of 10% (based on the closing price of C&D International Group on March 21, 2024), generously rewarded to shareholders.
Investment advice: The company relies on Xiamen State-owned Enterprise Construction and Development Group, breaking through adversity with majority shareholder support and market-based management mechanisms. Relying on refined product positioning and focusing on regional layout, sales performance is superior to peers. It is expected to further expand market share in the industry reshuffle; considering that short-term gross margin may continue to be under pressure, and asset impairment pressure still exists, we lowered the company's 2024-2025 EPS forecast to 2.70 yuan (originally 3.52 yuan) and 2.73 yuan (originally 4.17 yuan), respectively EPS predicts 2.75 yuan, and the current stock price is 4.7 times, 4.7 times, and 4.6 times PE, respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: 1) There is a risk that the company's gross margin will decline: if the sales sentiment continues to decline and the “price for volume” of housing enterprises intensifies, it will still limit the gross profit margin on the settlement side; 2) The risk that land acquisition efforts fall short of expectations: if land acquisition rules are adjusted or the local market fluctuates, the company's expansion of land storage may be blocked, which will also limit future sales scale growth; 3) Policy improvements fall short of expectations: affected by housing enterprise credit events, if the cooperative development project sales expectations are affected by the partner's credit qualifications Risk events also hinder the company's sales reduction.