"I wonder what Premier Zhu thinks of the housing market. "

In November 1997, Premier Zhu Rongji went to Shenzhen for research. Wang Shi attended the premier's forum and reported on his work as an entrepreneur representative. The topic chosen by the witty Wang Shi is not real estate, but "the impact on enterprises before and after the tax sharing system", which is also the reform pushed by Zhu Rongji in 1993. Encouraged by the interest of Zhu Rongji, Wang Shi raised the above question.

After a moment of silence, Zhu Rongji asked: "if the allocation of welfare housing is abolished, can the real estate industry become a pillar industry?" "Wang Shi replied directly," No. Zhu Rongji asked again: "if the financial market is opened up, can't the real estate industry become a pillar industry? "Wang Shi denied it again. Zhu Rongji also asked: "the liberalization of consumer credit, not yet?" Wang Shi weighed his words carefully: "not in two years. "

At this time, Zhu Rongji said firmly: "I will definitely turn the housing industry into a pillar industry in two years." Seeing that Zhu Rongji was so determined, Wang Shi replied, "since the premier says yes, it will certainly work." "

Counting the 40 years of China's property market, the real estate market has experienced the bud of housing reform, the golden age to the Silver Age, ended 40 years of welfare housing allocation, and ushered in 20 years of marketization.The value added of real estate as a share of GDP rose from 4.0 per cent in 1998 to 6.5 per cent in 2017. Over the past 40 years, the property market has experienced a round of regulation and control "baptism", feeling the stone across the river, the real estate market has gradually found its position and determined the proposition of the times of "housing without speculation".

Over the past 40 years, how many real estate developers have appeared on the stage, which has created the myth of sudden wealth, and how many real estate developers have left the scene, resulting in empty-handed, twists and turns, gathering into a symphony of ups and downs.

Prelude--"be bolder and move faster."

As the old saying goes: the land gives birth to all things.

In 1998, a programmatic document of "Housing Reform" was issued, and the welfare housing allocation system, which had been implemented for nearly 40 years, withdrew from the historical stage from the policy, and a new era of real estate marketization began.Since then, the rapid development of urbanization, high-rise buildings, such as bamboo shoots after a spring rain, real estate developers surging.

The introduction of this document has been brewing for 20 years, which can be described as twists and turns.

In 1978, Yang Guoqiang, who was born as a farmer and had no shoes at the age of 17, took a turn for the better. With the help of his brother Yang Guohua, he worked as a builder in the house management office and became an ordinary bricklayer, learning how to build a house, laying the groundwork for the future creation of Country Garden Holdings. In order to appreciate the kindness of his brother, Yang Guoqiang also donated money to set up Guohua Memorial Middle School after he became famous.

"thatched huts everywhere, shanty houses everywhere" is a portrayal of the lives of most people at that time.

Before 1978, housing was uniformly built and distributed by the government, and the supply efficiency was low.According to official statistics at the end of 1977, the per capita living space in 190 cities was only 3.6 square meters, while in 2016, the per capita living space in cities and towns reached 36.6 square meters.

In view of the general housing difficulties throughout the country, Deng Xiaoping asked this year, "can there be a wider way to solve the housing problem?" "Since then, Deng Xiaoping made many speeches on real estate, which opened the prelude to the reform of the real estate market.

At that time, "commercialization of housing" was still a sensitive issue, and the commercial housing market started quietly, including pilot sales, rent subsidies, sale of public housing, etc., however, they all failed in the end.

At the beginning of the reform of the mainland real estate market, Hong Kong real estate has long been booming, and real estate developers have begun to pay attention to the mainland market.And become the guest of honor and the guide of the real estate development in the mainland in the future.Fok Ying-tung, the land master of Hong Kong, set a precedent for investing in the mainland, building the first Sino-foreign joint venture five-star hotel-Guangzhou White Swan Hotel in Guangzhou, which is at the forefront of reform and opening up. After the opening of the White Swan, there was a sea of people. It is said that on the first day of the opening, several baskets of squeezed shoes were found in the lobby, and 400 rolls of toilet paper were used in the toilet. In other words, Deng Xiaoping was also obsessed with the French bread made by the White Swan. When he visited the White Swan in 1985, he specially paid for the French bread to take back.

In the same year that Huo Yingdong built the White Swan, the State Administration of Urban Construction, the predecessor of the Ministry of Housing and Construction, was born and led the pilot sale of houses in four cities in 1979.In 1982, a new round of housing sales pilot supporting the "three-three" system and other subsidized house sales policies were launched, and by the end of 1985, the pilot project had been extended to 160 cities and 300 counties and towns across the country.Although the pilot project has been very effective, a large number of subsidies have increased the burden on local governments and staff and workers, and met with their strong opposition.Subsidized house sales were abolished in 1985.

In the real estate "commercialization" test at the same time, a number of state-owned real estate developers came into being, such as Merchants Shekou, China Sea, China Housing Group, Huayuan and so on.Zhongfang Group, founded in 1981, is not only the earliest real estate enterprise in China, but also the largest real estate enterprise at that time.Before the birth of Zhongfang, most Chinese cities and towns were 'self-built houses', including unit self-built houses and individual self-built houses, and later developed into a joint construction model and a unified construction office model. Zhongfang promotes the unified construction office model to the housing development enterprise model, turns the self-construction of the unit into 'comprehensive development and supporting construction', then sells it to the unit, and then leases it to the staff and workers. Meng Xiaosu, former chairman of Zhongfang Group and "father of China's real estate", told Phoenix New Media that "Zhongfang development houses once accounted for 1/5 of the national real estate development share, and took on about half of the tasks of the national residential pilot community." "

However,In 2010, after SASAC issued a "check-out order" for central enterprises, China Housing Group was integrated into China Communications and Construction Group as a whole."it is a failure to classify Zhongfang as a construction unit. There is a lack of an enterprise similar to an 'aircraft carrier' to guide the market and stabilize housing prices." Meng Xiaosu said.

In the third year after the establishment of Zhongfang, China ushered in the "first year of entrepreneurs", and future business leaders appeared one after another.In 1984, Wang Shi, who made the first bucket of money by selling corn, founded Vanke's predecessor, the Modern Scientific and Educational Instruments Exhibition Center; Liu Chuanzhi established an association in a communication room in Zhongguancun; Zhang Ruimin became the director of Qingdao Household Electrical Appliances Factory. Haier ushered in a new life; Yang Guoqiang started from scratch and pulled his own business; Ren Zhiqiang joined Huayuan and began to form an inextricable bond with real estate.

It was another three years, and the turning point in the real estate market came at the humble auction in 1987. Under the censure of "unconstitutionality", Shenzhen publicly auctioned the first piece of land in New China in the Shenzhen Hall.The following year, the National people's Congress adopted the Amendment to the Constitution.The provision of "prohibition of land lease" in article 10, paragraph 4, of the Constitution was deleted, and the content of "the right to the use of land may be transferred in accordance with the provisions of the law" was added to this article.

At this time, Wang Shi has smelled new business opportunities, modern scientific and educational equipment exhibition and sales center to complete the joint-stock transformation, renamed "Vanke", officially entered the real estate industry.In 1989, Vanke also sent an apprenticeship to Hong Kong to study the operation experience of Hong Kong's real estate market. Since then, the model house in Vanke's Tianjing Garden project has been put into practice, speculation in uncompleted flats from Hong Kong to the mainland.

Wang Jianlin, also a post-50s, transferred from the army and volunteered to take over the debt-laden Xigang District Housing Development Company in 1989 (later restructured to Wanda).The previous year, the national working conference on housing system reform was held for the first time, and another attempt was made to "housing reform". This time, the plan is to increase wages, change the physical distribution of housing into monetary distribution, and increase rents to promote house sales. unfortunately, this housing reform encountered a "price breakthrough" crisis, workers have withdrawn savings and cash, rent subsidy model aborted.

In 1992, Deng Xiaoping's southern tour proposed that "reform has a long way to go"."be bolder and move faster" has become a well-known street slogan. This set off a wave of entrepreneurship in 1992, and a large number of government officials, intellectuals, and township cadres went to the sea to start businesses one after another, including entrepreneurs such as Chen Dongsheng, Feng Lun, Pan Shiyi, and so on. A large number of heavyweight real estate enterprises emerge as the times require, including Country Garden Holdings, Agile, Poly Real Estate, Greenland Group, Baoneng Group, Financial Street.The number of enterprises engaged in the real estate industry in Beijing soared 4.5 times from 3700 the previous year to 17000 at the end of the year.

In 1992, national investment in real estate development increased by 117 percent over the same period in 1991, of which Hainan soared by 211 percent. In 1988, the establishment of Hainan Province and Hainan Special Economic Zone set off a tide of 'breaking the sea'.But at that time, it was mainly geothermal speculation, not hot on housing, speculation was land speculation, did not form a real commodity. "said Meng Xiaosu.

According to the Yearbook of China Real Estate Market (1996), Hainan real estate soared from 1350 yuan per square meter at the beginning of the province in 1988 to 7500 yuan per square meter in the first half of 1993. The price of land in Hainan jumped from hundreds of thousands per mu in 1991 to more than 6 million per mu in 1993.

At the time of the carnival of the real estate market, the "National 16 articles" was born in 1993, opening a precedent for the regulation and control of the real estate market, and the rapid advance of China's real estate slammed on the brakes, with Hainan bearing the brunt.Article 16 of the people's Republic of China proposes 16 policy measures, such as strictly controlling the total scale of credit, raising deposit and loan interest rates and national debt interest rates, recovering illegal loan funds within a time limit, reducing infrastructure investment, and cleaning up all projects under construction. The overall tightening of monetary policy is like pulling money from the bottom, and the real estate bubble in Hainan burst.

There are more than 600 "unfinished buildings" in Hainan province, with 18834 hectares of idle land and a backlog of 80 billion funds. 13000 real estate companies in Haikou closed down 95%. The bad debts of the four major state-owned commercial banks alone are as high as 30 billion yuan. The rate of non-performing assets of many banks has reached more than 60%. The Construction Bank alone has dealt with 267 non-performing real estate projects."Tianya, Cape, and unfinished buildings" have become the three major "landscapes" in Hainan.

Fortunately, the "Wantong six Gentlemen" who made the first bucket of gold in Hainan left Hainan before the bubble burst. Feng Lun revealed to Phoenix New Media Finance and Economics that he had captured some information in advance. "I came out of the government departments and units, and the work of many of my colleagues was related to policy formulation. I learned some information and felt that it would change, so I withdrew quickly." "

Since then, the "Wantong six Gentlemen" went their separate ways, Feng Lun and Pan Shiyi went north, Yi Xiaodi went to Guangxi, Wang Qifu went to Shenzhen.In March 1995, the six brothers broke up for the first time, and Wang Qifu, Pan Shiyi and Yi Xiaodi left.In 1998, Liu Jun left.In 2003, Wang Gongquan left."Wantong six" left Feng Lun alone.

Pan Shiyi, who went north, and his new wife, Zhang Xin, founded SOHO in 1995."Pan Shiyi made a very quick-witted decision at that time, chose commercial real estate, did not enter the residence, will not have too big policy risk. "said Feng Lun.

When Wantong six Gentlemen staged "Little Farewell", Vanke has successfully issued B shares and "conquered cities and lands" everywhere. However, the good times did not last long, Wang Shi soon encountered the first "trouble" after the listing. In 1994, the struggle broke out, and Vanke was invaded by "barbarians" for the first time. Wang Shi decisively took a series of "counterattack" measures. First of all, he won time by suspending trading to block the "rat warehouse" of Junan and others. At the same time, it will disintegrate other shareholders who have been courted by Junan and attempt to reorganize Vanke's alliance. In only 7 days, the confrontation between the two sides ended and Wang Shi won.

1994 is also known as the year of Housing Reform decision-making. Three months after the end of the dispute between Jun and Wan, a number of policy documents were issued, especially the "decision on deepening the Reform of Urban Housing system" proposed the steady sale of public housing, and once again "housing reform" was put on the agenda.However, this reform was labelled as "selling state-owned assets" and finally had to come to an abrupt end.

In 1996, when housing was established as a new economic growth point, the real estate market bottomed out and successfully operated the Pearl Island Garden project. Xu Jiayin, who made a net profit of 200 million for Zhongda Group, left his old employer and founded Evergrande.The following year, Evergrande's first development project, Jinbi Garden, sold out on the first day of trading, creating a miracle of Guangzhou property market sales at that time. Xu Jiayin's reputation spread like wildfire.

Guangdong developers add another good player, the eastern neighbor of Fujian housing enterprises are not to be outdone, Taihe, Sunshine City, Jinhui, Zhongjun and so on have been set up.Huang Qisen, 30, resolutely left the system, founded Taihe in Fujian, and successively developed Tianyuan Garden, Tianyuan Meishu Pavilion and many other well-known buildings in Fuzhou, which established his status in Fujian real estate enterprises. Huang Qisen himself is a workaholic and his hobby is work, almost 007. Fujian housing enterprises dare to fight, dare to work, have their own circle, but also some radical, so later also appeared some financial problems. "one real estate executive commented.

Time soon stepped into 1998. At this time, at a time of the Asian financial crisis, domestic demand is in the doldrums of foreign demand, insufficient domestic demand, overcapacity and other difficulties.In March 1998, the new Premier Zhu Rongji pointed out that "the construction of housing will become a new growth point of China's economy."」In July of the same year, the landmark document No. 23 was issued, which proposed to stop the physical distribution of housing and gradually implement the monetization of housing distribution as the core, supporting the reform of housing construction, supply, and financial methods, and developing the housing transaction market. the reform goal of speeding up housing construction.

Since then, China has officially entered the era of real estate marketization.At this time, in China's real estate market, Guangdong businessmen, Fujian, Beijing School and Chongqing enterprises formed a school of their own, each leading the way.

After the housing reform, the construction of housing, cars and related infrastructure, as a new growth point of the national economy, has strongly promoted the development of China's economy over the past 20 years. Among them, the real estate industry has promoted the development of more than 100 industries, and the total economic output exceeds a country every two years, and has reached the second place in the world. "said Meng Xiaosu.

However, he also has worries, "there are still many tasks of housing reform that have not been completed, and the direction of market economic reform specified by the housing reform is often blurred in regulation and control." "

Interlude-"the rate of saving money will never catch up with the rate of price increase."

Past dark willows and flowers in bloom lies another village.

The global financial tsunami in 2008 was like a blizzard in that year, which caused a chill in the Chinese property market. However, with the introduction of the "4 trillion yuan" stimulus package, China's property market has fought a beautiful turnaround.

1998年，SOHO ChinaThe first project, SOHO Modern City, is officially on sale.At first, the project did not go well, and the sales hall was empty. Helpless Pan Shiyi found China's real estate intermediary industry's "ancestor"-Deng Zhiren trading, however, still no improvement. Later, when the two sides quarreled with each other, Pan Shiyi, who came down from the Everest camp, wrote an open letter entitled "four deputy sales directors of Hyundai City were dug away by high pay", causing an uproar. Pan Shiyi and SOHO Hyundai City have a reputation for being noisy at the moment, and have since won the champion of real estate single project sales in Beijing for two consecutive years.

Some industry analysts attribute the success of SOHO Modern City to this beautiful "public relations war", while others believe that it is evidence of the initial success of housing reform.

Due to the influence of residents' consumption habits, it was not enthusiastic to buy houses in the first few years after the housing reform. Later, the central government adopted various stimulus policies, such as cutting interest rates, raising the down payment, increasing the loan line, and so on, and the market began to become really active.

"at the beginning, we proposed housing mortgage loans, and people were not willing to borrow them. We went to work everywhere, including for bank governors and ordinary people, "Meng Xiaosu recalled." Gu Yunchang made up a story about a conversation between an old Chinese lady and an old American lady in heaven.' When an old Chinese lady died and met an American old lady in heaven, she found that the old Chinese lady had saved money all her life and did not buy a house, and the American old lady had just paid off after living in a house all her life. The old Chinese lady found that she lost a lot of money. This story makes people understand that they can buy a house first and then pay back the money slowly. "

In 1999, the market gradually warmed up. Investment in real estate development nationwide totaled 295.2 billion yuan, an increase of 17.9 percent over the same period last year.The opening of Country Garden Holdings in South China was even more spectacular on May Day in 2000.。Nine Kanlou special lines, hundreds of buses start together, Kanlou cars are connected into long queues, and the sales halls and model rooms are crowded with people.Country Garden Holdings in South China rose to fame, which also led the entire South China plate into a period of rapid development.

Vanke, also in South China, found a new rich man-China Resources this year.In August 2000, Shentefa signed an equity transfer agreement to transfer all its Vanke state-owned legal person shares to China Resources.After the equity transfer, China Resources Group and its affiliated enterprises became the largest shareholder of Vanke with an equity share of 15.08%. After taking ownership, China Resources wanted to gain absolute control in one fell swoop, but the fixed increase plan failed and the problem of dispersion of Vanke shares did not change. This laid the groundwork for the later "struggle for treasure".

"at that time, Wang Shi did not have that deep understanding of the capital market. Vanke was unique 20 years ago, mainly because of Wang Shi. He advocated a professional manager culture, and as a founder, he gave up his shares and preferred to let insiders control the company, but this also led to later problems. A Vanke executive told Phoenix New Media Finance.

Looking back in 1991, Vanke A Shenzhen Stock Exchange listed, the birth of the first real estate stock, and brought a wave of real estate enterprises listed on the small best part. However, in 1993, the regulation pressed the "suspension button" for the listing of real estate enterprises.Until March 2001, Beijing Tianhongbao was listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and the eight-year ban on the listing of real estate companies was completely unfrozen.

In the same year, Jindi Group, Metro Holdings and Tianfang Development were also listed one after another. since then, the capital market has ushered in the spring tide of listing of real estate enterprises for nearly 10 years. During the periodIn 2006, there was also a wave of "mainland listing in Hong Kong", including Country Garden Holdings, Cosco Real Estate, SOHO China and so on.

The rich were born one after another.Since 2002, the names of real estate developers have frequently occupied the rich list.For example, among the top 10 on the Hurun Rich list in 2009, 8 were mainly engaged in real estate development or involved in the real estate industry. 51 of the top 100 are involved in real estate.

In 2003, there were two new terms "real estate speculation group" and "land king" in the real estate circle.Speaking of the real estate speculation group naturally can not get around the "ancestor" Wenzhou real estate speculation group, according to media reports at that time, Wenzhou real estate speculation group contracted three planes to look at houses, and on the day the shops in the second phase of Shenzhen Xinlonggang Commercial Center opened, they were bought hundreds of sets by Wenzhou people. Within a few years, wherever Wenzhou real estate speculation group went, housing prices soared all the way, covering 15 provinces and cities, including Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Chengdu, Hainan and so on.

The birth of the "Land King" stems from the No. 11 order issued by the Ministry of Land and Resources in 2002."recruitment, auction and hanging" was born and gradually became the main way of paid transfer of land. "the highest bidder" has become a new land game, and "land finance" has stepped onto the historical stage. Especially in the "831 deadline" in 2004, the land agreement transfer system withdrew, and the "recruitment and auction" soared all the way up.

In 2004, China's real estate industry ushered in the first real estate company with annual sales exceeding 10 billion yuan-Hesheng Chuangzhang.Vanke, which topped the list for many years in a row, had sales of 9.16 billion this year.。Behind the "bumper harvest" of real estate developers, there is also a lot of talk about the real estate bubble, and the word "house slaves" is popular.The previous year, the 18th document clearly defined the pillar status of real estate in the national economy for the first time, and the effect was immediate. The growth rate of real estate investment showed a growth trend of 20% or even 30% year after year.

After substantial expansion in 2003 and 2004 and taking land at a high price, Sun Hongbin's Shunchi reached a crisis and had no choice but to sell himself in 2006 after the listing plan was stranded."Sun Hongbin didn't ask the price for the land. He only asked about the terms of payment. For example, if this land is worth 1 billion yuan, others think it is only worth 600 million yuan, and Lao Sun will take it with 1 billion yuan. The price of land is higher than that of others, and flour is more expensive than bread. A partner of Sun Hongbin revealed to Phoenix New Media Finance and Economics. Once upon a time, Sun Hongbin was ambitious and challenged Wang Shi at the Boao Forum for Asia in 2003, saying that Shunchi wanted to be number one in the country. This year, Shunchi's market share in Tianjin also rose to 15%, reflecting its ambition. At the same time, Sun Hongbin founded Sunac China this year. "he is not 'starting a new stove' or anticipating the crisis to prepare in advance. Shunchi locates rigid demand, Sunchuang locates high-end, and Sunchuang is more like a subsidiary of Shunchi. "the above-mentioned partner said.

Why did Shunchi "fall"? The background at that time was the shift from stimulus to tightening of real estate policy.In 2004, the central bank entered the cycle of raising interest rates. In 2005, eight articles in the old country, eight articles in the new country, six articles and 15 articles in the new country were introduced one after another, with unprecedented regulation and control efforts. However, this round of regulation did not contain the rising trend of house prices, which rebounded again in 2006 after a brief slowdown in the second half of 2005, and the carnival continued until the eve of the global financial crisis.

In 2007, the performance of real estate developers reached a commanding peak again, and the property market and stock market were jubilant.The top 10 housing enterprises are among the "10 billion clubs", including Vanke, China Sea, Poly, R & F, Country Garden Holdings, Greenland, Hesheng, Longhu, Greentown, Agile Real Estate and so on. On October 16 of this year, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a peak of 6124.04 points, the highest level in the history of the Shanghai Composite Index.

The building is full of wind and rain.

Some keen real estate developers have detected anomalies. In March 2008, Pan Shiyi asserted, "the real estate industry will have great changes within a hundred days." "

In 2007, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States broke out and spread rapidly, which finally triggered the global financial tsunami in 2008.In order to avoid the impact of the subprime crisis, the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio as many as 10 times and raised deposit and loan interest rates six times in 2007.September 27 issued a "second home mortgage down payment of 40%, interest rate 1.1 times" new rules, which is known by the industry as "the last straw to crush the camel", the real estate market turned into a downturn at the end of the year.

In 2008, real estate entered the "cold winter", price reduction, check-out, land auction, return of land, shop closure, money shortage have become the key words of this year.According to the data, the area of commercial housing sales across the country fell 19.7% from the same period last year, the first negative growth in sales in nearly a decade.

Evergrande, which attacked cities and lands everywhere in the past two years, almost fell in this wave.In 2008, Evergrande, whose listing was stranded, was in time for the pre-sale of several projects.Xu Jiayin is eager to withdraw funds to quench his thirst. He found Zheng Yutong, a Hong Kong real estate tycoon, and the negotiation lasted three months. in order to gain Zheng Yutong's trust, Xu Jiayin had dinner with Zheng Yutong once a week and went to Zheng's family to play cards. Evergrande finally got $506 million in financing from Zheng Yutong, Merrill Lynch and Deutsche Bank.During the "National Day" Golden week this year, Evergrande centrally opened 18 properties around the country, offered 15% discount promotions, and invited stars to campaign in several key buildings, quickly withdrawing 4.79 billion yuan of funds.

In 2008, Evergrande's sales broke through the 10 billion mark and joined the 10 billion club of real estate enterprises for the first time. Xu Jiayin completely fought a turnaround. In addition to the superb marketing strategy, Xu Jiayin may be more grateful for the series of policy dividends at the end of the year.Towards the end of the year, a series of policies to rescue the market, such as tax exemption, interest rate reduction, reserve requirement reduction and down payment ratio, were introduced. The National standing Committee in November once again "expanded its measures" and identified ten measures to further expand domestic demand and promote economic growth. it includes speeding up the construction of affordable housing projects, speeding up the construction of rural infrastructure, and speeding up the construction of major infrastructure such as railways, highways and airports.According to a preliminary calculation, the implementation of these ten major measures will require an investment of about 4 trillion yuan by the end of 2010, so it has been interpreted as a "4 trillion plan" by the outside world.

"when I got 4 trillion yuan, I didn't know what to do, but I could only invest in real estate. "Wu Jinglian said.

From September 27, 2007, raising the down payment ratio of two sets and raising interest rates six times in a row, rescuing the market on October 22 and cutting interest rates five times in 2008 to the "4 trillion plan", the property market staged a policy reversal. House prices rebounded strongly in 2009."grabbing land" became the top priority of real estate developers this year, and one by one the land kings were born again.

In particular, central enterprises, state-owned enterprises and large real estate enterprises wantonly hoarded land without mercy.For example, the Guangzhou Asian Games Village started shooting, fought hard for 47 rounds, and finally a consortium of private enterprises composed of R & F, Agile and Country Garden Holdings finally won the land with a total price of 25.5 billion yuan, a record for seven years. In 2016, the Merchants Shekou and overseas Chinese Town consortium won 31 billion of the commercial plot of Shenzhen's new convention and exhibition center, a record that was finally broken.

Another self-proclaimed "small housing enterprise" Fangxing Real Estate (later renamed China Jinmao) won the Guangqumen site on the East fourth Ring Road of Beijing in 2009 with 4.06 billion yuan, setting a new record for both total price and floor price in Beijing.Its competitors are Vanke, Poly, China Resources, Cosco, CITIC, Huayuan, Financial Street, Shoukai, SOHO China and so on. When the price rose to 3.67 billion yuan, Cosco withdrew, leaving Poly and Fang Xing to compete. When the price broke through the 4 billion mark, Mao Daqing, general manager of Vanke Beijing, shouted "crazy", while Pan Shiyi jumped up and shouted, "you are awesome!" "

This year, the TV series "snail dwelling" is popular, metropolises and houses affect the ups and downs of the plot, "the speed of saving can never catch up with the speed of price increases" has become a classic line.The dream of Haiping, who graduated from a famous university to work hard in Jiangzhou (Shanghai), is to "buy a house with two bedrooms and one living room for more than 800,000 yuan." At that time, Haiping's role attracted a lot of scolding, and the audience accused her of being vain, incompetent but with a higher heart than the sky. The house drove her crazy and became a person who complained about her husband and asked her parents for money. In the play, she defends herself: when a woman gets married, she doesn't even want a house, a wedding, or a ring. Can you call her vain? She just wants to pick up her daughter and give her a home of her own.

Ten years later, looking at "snail dwelling", Haiping has been "lost to everyone."

The best part--"the era when everyone can stoop to pick up gold is over."

The tide rises and falls, the tide rises.

The article "China's property Market has entered the Silver Age" published by People's Daily in June 2014"Real estate has spent its best years, but it is by no means the Titanic that is about to hit an iceberg," he wrote. However, the era of gold that everyone can stoop to pick up is over, and real estate has entered the silver age. "the author of the article is Yu Liang. Has the Silver Age really come? Yu Liang's conclusion may be too early.

From this round in 2009, China's property market staged a "seesaw" game, regulation and housing prices took turns to stand in the upper hand, the real estate market to the "cycle theory."

In 2009, the Dubai property market, thousands of miles away, was hit hard.Hit by the debt crisis, Dubai's property market began to plunge, house prices nearly halved, and more than 400 projects were cancelled or suspended. This was a wake-up call for China's property market, which was in full swing at that time.

At the end of the year, real estate policy suddenly tightened until February 2012.During this period, the exemption of business tax on individual housing transfer was restored from two years to five years, raising the down payment ratio, reserves, market basic interest rate, purchase restrictions, expanding the pilot project of property tax, raising the interest rate of provident fund loans, and so on. National article 11, new country 10, new country eight and so on have been issued.

However, the increase in house prices did not immediately reverse.Especially in the year of intensive regulation and control policies in 2010, the increase of house prices reached a new peak.The country's first 100 billion housing enterprise was born in this year-Vanke, with sales of 108.16 billion yuan that year.

The central enterprises that once took the land without mercy suffered a "heavy blow" this year. During the two sessions in 2010, the topic of "central enterprises pushing up housing prices" sparked a heated discussion.In March, Cosco Real Estate won a piece of land in Chaoyang in Beijing for 4.08 billion yuan to set a new unit price land king record. Citic Real Estate soon won a piece of land in Beijing Daxing for 5.24 billion yuan to refresh Beijing's total price land king. In the afternoon of the same day, Expo Hongye won a piece of land in Haidian to set a new unit price land king record for ocean real estate. On the third day of shooting the queens of three places in one day, SASAC held a press conference to announce that in addition to 16 central enterprises with real estate as the main business, 78 central enterprises that did not focus on real estate would withdraw from the real estate business.

This is the famous "check-out order" of central enterprises. Since then, a number of real estate companies under the central enterprises have listed their shares for transfer.Petrochina Company Limited's real estate company Beijing Metropolis Shengjing Real Estate has made a public listing for transfer, becoming the first central enterprise to transfer 100% equity of its subsidiary.

In 2011, interest rate increases, deposit reserve ratio increases, purchase restrictions, price restrictions and other regulatory policies followed, the days of developers are stretched, and price cuts and rights-safeguarding housing are staged one after another."as soon as I got off the train from Beijing to Shanghai, there were countless phone calls from developers who needed a rescue. Now many developers are so short of breath. When the money comes in, you'll be alive. Pan Shiyi once talked about the scene at that time.

The most typical is the "ghost city" Ordos.The city, which once relied on "sheep coal gas" to create a myth of wealth, has entered an economic downturn in 2011, resource-based cities are facing the pain of transformation, private capital chains are broken, banks are unable to lend money, and the real estate has become a "rotten tail". Ordos is a modern empty city. As a new home for 1 million people, Kangbashi New area is seldom inhabited. There is not a single pedestrian in 15 minutes and less than 10 cars have passed by. That's what time magazine wrote.

In this year, the construction of indemnificatory apartment, which had been absent for many years, was finally launched on a large scale, proposing to build 36 million sets of indemnificatory housing in cities and towns during the 12th five-year Plan period.As early as the 18th of 2004, after "most families buy or rent commercial housing", indemnificatory apartment's supply entered a stagnant period. It was not until 2008 that the "construction of indemnificatory housing project" was listed as the first item of the "4 trillion-year Plan" that the construction of indemnificatory apartment began. The housing reform research group proposed a two-track housing system of commercial housing and indemnificatory apartment, but the construction of indemnificatory apartment was delayed for 12 years. "said Meng Xiaosu.

In 2013, the real estate market once again ushered in a "renaissance".This year, the "100 billion Legion" of housing enterprises expanded to 7, with Vanke firmly at the top of the list, followed by Greenfield, Poly, Wanda, China Shipping and Country Garden Holdings.Why the revival? After February 2012, real estate has ushered in a relaxed policy environment. After two reserve cuts and interest rate cuts, the originally low real estate market ended at the end of the year. This hot market continued to the whole year of 2013, and new commercial housing starts peaked across the country.

This year, Chinese real estate enterprises began to go out to sea on a large scale.Renaissance International paid $725 million for the first floor of the Morgan Tower in Manhattan, New York, and R & F Real Estate bought a site in Xinshan, Malaysia, for $8.5 billion. "We are interested in places with a large number of Chinese people. If you don't earn it, the money will be earned by foreigners. Due to various factors, China has a large number of immigrants, and this market is very large. Zhang Yuliang, chairman of Greenland, once explained the reason for "real estate enterprises going out to sea".

However, the real estate market has never been "calm", never lack of "reversal" ups and downs of the plot. In the second year of "releasing water" by the central bank, the policy adjustment was tightened.2014年，The regulation and control policies such as the five articles of the new country, the seven articles of the Han Dynasty and the five articles of the central government have been introduced, and tightening measures such as raising down payment and purchase restrictions have followed.The Ministry of Land and Resources also issued a document requiring cities with tight supply and demand to avoid having "land kings" by the end of the year.

This time, the developers finally can not stand it, the price reduction tide gradually spread from Hangzhou to the whole country, the real estate market volume and prices fell, some industry insiders call this year as the real estate into the downward channel of the first year.In 2014 and 2015, real estate investment fell from 20 per cent to 1 per cent in two years, and there was overcapacity in 2015 and 2016. "said Meng Xiaosu.

The price index of newly built commercial housing in 70 cities released by the Bureau of Statistics in 2014 shows that it has fallen for seven consecutive months since May, with a 1.2% drop in August, the biggest decline in nearly a decade. The decline in both volume and price has become the "main theme" of 2014. This year, Vanke remained at the top of the list for many years and was "robbed" by Greenfield with 240.8 billion of its sales.

The real estate policy that could not stand the pressure was quietly loosened, and "classified regulation" appeared in the government work report for the first time.On June 27, 2014, Hohhot officially announced the lifting of purchase restrictions, becoming the first city in the country to lift purchase restrictions, and dominoes were opened. Since the nationwide purchase restrictions were launched in 2010, a total of 46 cities have implemented purchase restrictions, and by the end of 2014, with the exception of first-tier cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Sanya, other cities have abolished purchase restrictions one after another. Since then, loose policies have been introduced one after another, including relaxing loan restrictions, lowering the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions, lowering the down payment ratio, transaction tax concessions, adjusting foreign restrictions, and so on.The relaxed environment lasted until June 2016.

Unfortunately, the impatient Song Weiping "withdrew" ahead of time without waiting for the "market rebound".

In 2014, Song Weiping's Greentown was stuck in a financial quagmire. At first, he chose Sun Hongbin. However, in less than half a year, the "struggle between Song and Sun" broke out. After a month of fierce fighting between the two sides, the cooperation ended in failure. Since then, Song Weiping will be its equity "second marriage" to the China Communications Group, completed the delivery of Greentown.

After the acquisition of Greentown was blocked, Sun Hongbin, who "cut down decisively", turned to Kaisa and Yurun Group, which still ended in failure. After this war, Sun Hongbin won the title of "acquisition madman". "Sunchuang's expansion acquisition has something to do with Sun Hongbin's character, corporate strategy and his long-term optimism about the industry, and it also has something to do with Rongchuang's inability to stop wearing red dance shoes. Companies with high debt ratios cannot stop, and the speed cannot be lowered casually. "one industry insider commented.

In the cold winter of the property market, real estate stocks are in the doldrums, and "barbarians" take advantage of the situation.As early as March 2014, Yu Liang warned "barbarians" to knock on the door in small groups at Vanke's spring meeting. The risk capital led by Anbang and Life Insurance began to launch an "attack" on real estate stocks, especially the fight for equity in Jindi reached its best part in 2014.

As early as 2013, Life Life gradually increased its stake in Jindi. The first round ended with the counterattack of Fukuda Investment, the largest shareholder. In the second round, Anbang joined the secret war, which escalated the dispute over Jindi's equity. Both Anbang and Life Life increased their holdings of Jindi shares for a whole year, until the end of 2014. In the end, Life Life held 29.9% of Jindi's stake as the largest shareholder, followed by Anbang. Why did the Anbang system "lose the battle"? Some analysts say that you can't have both fish and bear paw. At the same time of the secret battle between Anbang and Life Life, the other hand reached out to the Financial Street. In 2014 alone, Anbang and the people who acted in unison raised their cards on the Financial Street four times.

The nature of the dangerous capital "barbarian" peaked in 2015 after it first emerged in 2014.According to the statistics of China Housing Network, by the end of 2015, among the 196 A-share and H-share listed housing enterprises across the country, 41 of the top 10 shareholders had risky assets.In November 2016, the CIRC issued "self-inspection orders" to insurance groups, institutions and companies, and the activity of insurance capital decreased.

There was a voice in the market that the property market and the stock market were a "seesaw". And the 2015 stock market crash awakened the "A-share dream person", from the beginning of the bull market all the way to 5178 points, followed by the "flower thousand shares" era, falling. On the other hand, the real estate market has changed its decline in 2014, with a strong counterattack, and house prices continue to rise. After 2013, the word Land King was frequently reported in 2015, and the property market ushered in a new round of "best part" in 2016, even more fiercely than previous rounds, with house prices in some cities doubling in two years.

Many summed up that one of the main reasons for the "carnival" of the property market is the stimulus policy related to "destocking".Such as "930" in 2014, "330" in 2015, "930" in 2015 and "217" in 2016. The Central Economic work Conference held in 2015 made it clear that "eliminating real estate inventory" is one of the "five major tasks" of economic work in 2016.Until 2018, the government work report concluded that the destocking of commercial housing in third-and fourth-tier cities had achieved remarkable results.This round of going to inventory is the end of life.

"the upsurge in house prices is not the direct result of the housing reform, but is driven by many factors, such as supply and demand, excess money, land finance, lack of investment channels and so on. Gu Yunchang, president of the National Federation of Real Estate Chambers of Commerce, once said.

Ren Zeping in the "real estate cycle theory" mentioned, what determines the real estate cycle? Look at population in the long term, land in the medium term, and finance in the short term.

The end--"Live."

The "cold" duck prophet in the Chunjiang River.

In 2018, Vanke's regular autumn meeting was originally a most common meeting. However, the inadvertent release of photos of the meeting scene, especially the sudden appearance of the red-background and white-character slogan "Live", caused a heated discussion at the moment.

The words "live" are written on the big screen of the regular autumn meeting of Vanke in 2018.

Housing enterprises have entered the "brink of life and death"? In fact, Vanke, which claims to be "alive", is speeding up mergers and acquisitions and taking land quickly, which is also a portrayal of most head housing enterprises, while the "survival" proposition is left to some highly leveraged large real estate enterprises and most small and medium-sized real estate enterprises.

In 2016, "diversification" became the theme of the year for real estate companies, as evidenced by the giant's renaming.The giants changed their names to "real estate", Evergrande Real Estate renamed "China Evergrande Group Group", Cosco Real Estate renamed "Ocean Group", "Wanda Commercial Real Estate" changed its name to "Wanda Commercial Management Group", and Poly Real Estate renamed "Poly Development Holdings".

All this should start with "930".

The "930" in 2016 was a watershed, led by Beijing's release of a new policy on the regulation of the property market, which led to the prelude to a new round of regulation in the country, and real estate entered the era of the strictest and most intensive regulation in history.Including purchase restriction, sale restriction, loan restriction, price restriction, business restriction, enterprise restriction, land restriction, down payment, increase of mortgage interest rate, increase of land supply and development of leasing market, etc. in 2018, the number of regulation and control reached more than 400 times.In particular, the Central Economic work Conference at the end of 2016 put forward for the first time that "houses are for living, not for speculation", which ushered in the proposition of a new era of "housing speculation".

However, this round of regulation did not achieve the effect of standing pole in the initial stage, but pressed the gourd to rise to the ladle. Industry analysts believe that in the "tight" policy mixed with destocking, shed reform, talent war and other "loose" policies, so housing prices "one after another", and even there has been panic buying and retaliatory rebound. The differentiation of house prices in various places is particularly serious in this round of regulation and control. First-and second-tier cities skyrocketed in 2016, third-and fourth-tier cities and even prefecture-level cities led the rise again in 2017, and second-tier cities made up for a round in 2018 and then "stopped". After the Spring Festival in 2019, hot cities reappear "Xiaoyangchun"It was not until the second quarter of this year that house prices across the country stabilized as a whole.

Real estate developers who have been regulated and "baptized" many times have made preparations in advance this time.

「This round of regulation is unprecedented in history.In 1998, real estate developers began to look for a way out for transformation. So far, there are no successful cases of transformation, and every family is on the way of transformation. A real estate veteran said to Phoenix New Media's financial analysis. "take Vanke as an example, Vanke took the path of diversified development at the beginning of its establishment, and then cut off its sideline to focus on real estate. At the beginning of this round of regulation, Vanke proposed diversified development. Facts have proved that the transformation is not successful. In recent years, Vanke began to reflect on diversified transformation and explore a return to specialization. "

Industry reshuffle intensified, housing enterprises staged a "merger and reorganization drama."In 2018, Sun Hongbin, who was rescued by Letv with 15 billion yuan, turned to buy Wanda Culture Travel Project; Vanke spent 55.1 billion to acquire Guangxin Asset package; Poly Real Estate merged with Poly Real Estate; Rongxin acquired Hailiang. The bigger the big, the stronger the stronger. China Real Estate TOP10 Research Group released the 2019 Research report of China's Top 100 Real Estate Enterprises.By 2018, the sales market share of the top 100 enterprises had risen rapidly to 58.1%, an increase of 10.6 percentage points over the previous year.

"the differentiation of small and medium-sized housing enterprises began in 2008, and the round of differentiation in 2014 has become increasingly prominent. This round, the life of small and medium-sized housing enterprises is even more difficult, and the concentration will be higher in the future. "Said a real estate developer of a small and medium-sized real estate enterprise.

"increasing concentration is definitely a trend," said one head housing executive. However, he is most concerned about who will fail and who will be acquired in Top100. "some real estate companies are no longer selling land, but selling equity. The key is whether you can cut off the wall to survive when you want to survive. If some want to break the arm and no one buys it, it will be troublesome."

Wang Jianlin, on the other hand, played the role of a "strong man with a broken wrist", changing from "buying" to "selling", which began in June 2017. According to China Business News, the regulatory department of the former China Banking Regulatory Commission called "to provide overseas investment loan situation and risk analysis of HNA, Anbang, Wanda, Fosun and Zhejiang Rosenneri Investment Company. and focus on the cross-border business risks involved, such as M & A loans, internal insurance and foreign loans.

There are rumors everywhereWanda suffered the largest double kill between stocks and bonds in the capital market since 2017. Later, there wasWanda and Rongchuang co-star in the "Century acquisition" case.Sun Hongbin, the knight in white, appeared again. According to the announcement, Wanda will transfer up to 63.2 billion of its assets to Rongchuang. However, on the day of the signing press conference, R & F suddenly broke in. Before the press conference, the office of the three housing enterprise bosses also heard the sound of quarrelling and dropping cups. In the end, Wanda and Rongchuang's "duet" became a "triangle play" of Wanda, Rongchuang and R & F, and "We are a win-win". Wang Jianlin, Sun Hongbin and Li Silan spoke in unison. Sun Hongbin revealed at the press conference that this was "the first annual draft of his life." Li Silian even sighed, "looking at the world, such a low-cost acquisition opportunity is rare in a century. "

In the end, Wanda sold 13 cultural travel projects and 77 hotels to Rongchuang, which sold 77 hotels to R & F at a 40% discount, and R & F paid cash.It seems that Rongchuang has become a bad guy, but in fact, Sun Hongbin got both literary travel and cash flow, and everything seems to suit him."Sun Hongbin is a man with teeth in his belly. On the surface, he is very polite to everyone, smiling, but in fact, he knows a lot about it, and he hides it hard in his heart, not on his mouth. A person close to Sun Hongbin said to Phoenix New Media Finance and Economics.

In the year when Sun Hongbin harvested the Wanda literature and tourism project, another capital drama with the largest scale and the fiercest struggle finally came to an end.In January 2017, Vanke announced that China Resources, Vanke's second largest shareholder, plans to transfer all its 15.31% stake to Shenzhen Metro Group, a local state-owned enterprise.After the completion of the deal, Shenzhen Metro held a 15.31% stake in Vanke, replacing China Resources as the second largest shareholder of Vanke. Vanke, Baoneng, China Resources, Evergrande, Anbang and Shenzhen Railway participated in it for more than two years, which can be called a "classic" case of M & A war in China's A-share market.

Why did the battle between treasure and ten thousand escalate? "first, when Wang Shi was doing stock reform at that time, he did not realize the extent to which the capital market could develop to the end, and his understanding at that time was limited. Second, it may be a struggle between two different corporate values. Wang Shi doesn't have to be chairman, but he doesn't want others to take the company in another direction and become a pure money-making machine. Therefore, when faced with a knocker, Wang Shi overreacted. He is very rigid, and there are few traditional Chinese accidents and slickness, which are a little too straight. for example, Yao Zhenhua was directly 'not welcome' at that time, which is why he has developed to this stage. A former Vanke executive told Phoenix New Media Finance.

In the second year after the end of the Bao Wan dispute, the monetization policy of shed reform was tightened, the property market in third-and fourth-tier cities cooled, and house prices declined.The promotion stage of shed reform and currency resettlement is a period of rapid development. PSL and special loans for policy banks have provided more than 3 trillion yuan of funds for shed reform in three years, stimulating the demand for third-and fourth-tier commercial housing, which is an important driving force for destocking in third-and fourth-tier cities. In 2015, the compensation mode of shed reform shifted from physical monetary resettlement to monetary resettlement priority, and shed reform entered the 2.0 stage. Since last year, monetized resettlement has been tightened, the scope of demolition planned by the government has been narrowed, and the progress of the project has slowed down.At present, there is a new term for shed reform, that is, the transformation of the old city.This year's shed renovation project in our city has basically halved compared with 2018."said a local developer in a fourth-tier city.

The developer also mentioned that at present, the pressure on the survival of real estate enterprises after Top100 is very great, unable to finance, dare not take land at all, and the profit space of financing is also limited. "especially after the tightening of trust, it is very difficult for real estate companies to add leverage. It is generally difficult for small and medium-sized housing enterprises to borrow from banks, and most of them rely on trust channels to obtain funds. The cost of capital is generally about 15%, while the financing costs of large real estate enterprises that borrow from banks are 7% to 8%. If the market is not good, it is almost impossible to make money, and there is no need to play. "

According to the China Court Network, more than 350 real estate enterprises have declared bankruptcy so far this year, including Yinyi Group, a former expert in the renovation of unfinished buildings.It has now filed for bankruptcy restructuring, a rout that once made it into the "top 500 private enterprises in China". Xiong Jianqiang, the founder of Yinyi, became the richest man in Ningbo with assets of 9 billion yuan on the 2010 Hurun Rich list.

「This year is the biggest financial pressure since I started my career.The cold winter in the property market is more about developers. "A number of real estate practitioners mentioned.

"it's late autumn and not winter yet. "Feng Lun said," it is very difficult for money to flow into real estate after 'water and electricity are cut off'. "

On July 30, the Politburo meeting of the CPC Central Committee stressed for the first time that "real estate should not be used as a means of short-term economic stimulus." Since the beginning of this year, real estate has strengthened the regulation of the financial sector, and the regulation and control of housing-related loans has continued to upgrade.In May, the Bancassurance Regulatory Commission issued document No. 23, reiterating the rectification of the real estate trust financing mess. In July, the National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice restricting overseas issuance of bonds by real estate companies to be used to repay debts within one year. Then, the central bank asked banks to further optimize and adjust the credit structure, "roll call" the real estate industry still occupies a lot of credit resources. It is reported that regulators have given "window guidance" to some banks to control the scale of real estate loans. In August, the CBIC mentioned that it would carry out special inspection of bank real estate business in 32 cities, including the implementation of credit policies for real estate business, the management of real estate development loans, and the management of personal housing loans.

According to Kerry data, the financing costs of 70 key housing companies continued to rise to 7.04 per cent in the first half of the year, with total interest-bearing liabilities of 7.6654 trillion yuan as of the first half of 2019, an increase of 10.69 per cent from the beginning of the period. According to Wind data, overseas bond maturities of mainland real estate companies in 2017 and 2018 were US $21.265 billion and US $24.647 billion, respectively.That figure soared to $47.566 billion in 2019, increasing the pressure to replace the old with the new.

"not only small and medium-sized housing enterprises, highly leveraged large housing enterprises will be more risky, some leading housing enterprises have begun to reduce prices. This round, even if the leading housing enterprises fall, I will not be surprised. "Said a senior real estate executive.

Feng Lun reminded his peers to "abstain from greed". "the industry has changed from a first-tier star to a third-tier star or even a fourth-tier star. "

Statistics from several research institutions show thatRecently, the real estate market continues to turn cold, focusing on monitoring the urban new housing transaction volume continues to decline, second-hand housing transaction volume is in the downward channel, at the same time, land market transactions also fell in volume and price, land premium rate continued to decline.

A second-tier city intermediary told Phoenix New Media Finance and Economics, "since the second half of last year, there have been many fewer people looking at houses, and there has been a trend of price reduction in second-hand housing." In 2016, I signed an average of 6 or 7 bills a month at the highest, and now there is only one. There used to be more than 100 people in our team, but now there are only thirty or forty people. On a street, five intermediary shops have closed down and two have closed down. "

"since May this year, some sellers of second-hand houses in Beijing have taken the initiative to reduce prices, ranging from tens of thousands to millions, mainly depending on the total price. Fewer people are looking at the house, and the transaction volume has also declined. However, there is only a steady decline, not to the extent of the market downturn in 2014. "said an intermediary in Beijing.

Is the cold winter in the property market coming?

"Real estate has entered the stock era for many years. As early as ten years ago, the transaction volume of second-hand housing in Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen exceeded that of first-hand housing. This year, there are about 30 cities, and the transaction volume of second-hand housing exceeds that of first-hand housing. Developers may not wake up, always holding the illusion of stimulating the economy, that era has passed. Hu Jinghui, chief economist of Jinghui think tank, said.

Feng Lun believes that real estate has entered the post-development era, real estate enterprises still have many opportunities, such as office buildings, commerce, hotel vacations, medical and health, logistics warehousing, educational research and development, plus government property, public property and other areas can be explored.

Some bosses of real estate enterprises expressed the opposite view to Phoenix New Media Finance and Economics.「At present, the real estate industry is not completely market-oriented, and the current situation can not reflect its real situation.If deregulation, how will the market go?The real estate market is a part of the market economy, the development of China's economy will be inseparable from it for a long time, it is also a part of the real economy.」

Where will China's property market go in the future? Looking back over the past 40 years, a surging era of profiteering is over and will gradually return to soundness.