It's been a mediocre week for Baozun Inc. (NASDAQ:BZUN) shareholders, with the stock dropping 19% to US$2.30 in the week since its latest annual results. Revenues came in at CN¥8.8b, in line with expectations, while statutory losses per share were substantially higher than expected, at CN¥4.68 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
After the latest results, the ten analysts covering Baozun are now predicting revenues of CN¥9.22b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 4.6% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 63% to CN¥1.70. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of CN¥9.52b and CN¥0.071 per share in losses. While this year's revenue estimates dropped there was also a considerable increase to loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.
The consensus price target fell 7.1% to US$3.92, with the analysts clearly concerned about the company following the weaker revenue and earnings outlook. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Baozun at US$6.83 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$2.59. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.
Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Baozun's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 4.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.1% over the past five years. Compare this against other companies (with analyst forecasts) in the industry, which are in aggregate expected to see revenue growth of 10% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Baozun.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Baozun analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Baozun you should know about.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.