Monday March 25

Keywords: Bank of Japan monetary policy meeting minutes; Federal Reserve Governor Cook, Atlanta Chairman Bostic delivered speeches

On Monday, in terms of economic data, the total annualization of new home sales in the US for February and the US Dallas Federal Reserve Business Activity Index for March will be released.

In terms of major events, the Bank of Japan will release the minutes of the January monetary policy meeting.

Last week, the Bank of Japan raised short-term interest rates for the first time since 2007 and cancelled the complex bond yield control curve policy at the end of Tuesday's March meeting. Despite this historic move by the Bank of Japan, the Bank of Japan said that the financial environment will remain relaxed and has not provided any guidance on future policy measures or the pace of policy normalization. Coupled with the persistence of risk appetite, this continues to weigh on the yen's safe-haven function.

On the Federal Reserve side, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook will deliver a speech on the dual mission of the Federal Reserve. In addition, the 2024 FOMC voting committee and Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic will also deliver a speech.

Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman Bostic said on Friday that he now expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates only once this year, adding that the rate cut may be later than he previously anticipated.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve Chairman said that his confidence in the inflation trend was not as good as in December of last year, and pointed out that there were “some unsettling things” in the overall data. In particular, he pointed out that the increase in many products in the consumer basket is accelerating.

In terms of major financial reports, Hong Kong stocks$PETROCHINA (00857.HK)$,$CM BANK (03968.HK)$,$CHINA RES LAND (01109.HK)$The latest financial report will be released today.

Tuesday March 26th

Keywords：American Chamber of Commerce Consumer Confidence Index; US Housing Price Index Annual Rate

On Tuesday, there are relatively few major data to pay attention to. The annual rates of the US Chamber of Commerce Consumer Confidence Index and the Housing Price Index for the 20 US Cities will be announced.

In terms of financial reports, Hong Kong stocks$BYD COMPANY (01211.HK)$,$CHINA TELECOM (00728.HK)$,$WUXI BIO (02269.HK)$The latest quarterly earnings report will be announced later today. In terms of US stocks,$GameStop (GME.US)$The results of the US stock market will be announced after today's market, and the Chinese stock market will be announced$Zhihu (ZH.US)$Earnings will be released before the US stock market.

In 2023, BYD sold 3.02 million cars for the whole year, and the market price in forecast is that in 2024, BYD's sales volume should be above 4 million. Also, at the beginning of the new year, BYD made big moves one after another. First, the price of Qin PLUS was directly reduced to 78,900, then the price of the Han Tang Honor Edition was also drastically reduced, impacting the middle and high-end markets. BYD faces the challenges of fierce competition in the industry and low net interest rates. This performance has attracted market attention.

Also, the 2024 Annual Meeting of the Boao Forum for Asia will be held in Boao, Hainan from March 26th to 29th.

Wednesday March 27th

Keywords: API, EIA crude oil inventory; Eurozone consumer confidence index

On Wednesday, there were relatively few major economic data. API, EIA crude oil inventories, and the Eurozone consumer confidence index required investors' attention.

In terms of major financial reports, Hong Kong stocks$CG SERVICES (06098.HK)$,$CHINA LIFE (02628.HK)$Results will be announced today; US stocks$Carnival (CCL.US)$The financial report will be released in advance of the US stock market.

Carnival Cruises rose 130% in 2023, the best year on record. Carnival Cruises has been benefiting from a surge in travel demand after the pandemic. On December 21, the company announced a record fourth quarter revenue, with bookings for the quarter exceeding the levels of 2019 and last year. As Carnival Cruises works to repay its debts, these new growth trends are likely to continue until next year.

Thursday March 28th

Keywords: number of initial jobless claims; final value of real GDP annualized quarterly rate in the fourth quarter; Chicago PMI in the US in March; University of Michigan consumer confidence index

On Thursday, in terms of major data, the US GDP data for the fourth quarter, the number of US jobless claims at the beginning of the week, and the quarterly rate of personal consumption expenditure for the fourth quarter will be released on the same day.

The market generally expects that the final value of US real GDP annualized quarterly in the fourth quarter will be the same as the revised value of 3.2%, and that personal consumption expenditure will continue to provide the main driving force for economic growth.

On February 28, data released by the US Department of Commerce showed that the revised quarterly quarterly revised value of US GDP for the fourth quarter was revised down to 3.2%, falling short of the 3.3% forecast. Analysts believe that some details in the report, such as corporate investment and consumer spending on durable goods, indicate that the economic environment is weaker than expected.

In terms of financial events, Federal Reserve Governor Waller will deliver a speech on the economic outlook.

Analysts believe that Waller may claim that he has reduced expectations of interest rate cuts and that he has “insufficient” confidence that inflation will return to target, which may have a hawkish impact on the market.

In terms of financial reports,$COUNTRY GARDEN (02007.HK)$,$CCB (00939.HK)$,$GAC GROUP (02238.HK)$Financial results will be released today.

Furthermore, the Xiaomi car made a big announcement today.

Lei Jun previously posted a Weibo saying, “On March 28, the Xiaomi SU7 was officially released. This is our three-year agreement.” With the official debut of the Xiaomi SU7, the price will also be officially revealed.

People familiar with the matter said,$Xiaomi Corp. (XIACF.US)$The pricing for Xiaomi cars has already been determined. Compared with last year, the pricing has been reduced by 30,000 to 50,000 yuan. Currently, the price of the standard version may start at 266,000 yuan, and the premium version is positioned at 336,000 yuan. However, adjustments may still be made before the press conference. Currently, the high and low versions of the Xiaomi SU7 mainly target Tesla Model 3 and Extreme Krypton 001. Not only are the configurations similar, but even the price is fully benchmarked.

Friday March 29th

Keywords：PCE price index monthly rate and annual rate; Powell speech

On Friday, in terms of major economic data, the Federal Reserve's most popular inflation indicator, the February Core PCE Price Index, was announced today.

The market generally expects the US core PCE to rise 0.3% month-on-month in February, slow down from 0.4% last month, and maintain the same year-on-year growth rate of 2.8% as last month.

However, considering that the CPI rebounded beyond expectations in February, some analysts believe that the core PCE may also be higher than expected. According to some analysts, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell mentioned at the press conference after the interest rate meeting that although recent inflation data is higher than expected, he still plans to maintain the expectation of cutting interest rates three times by 25 basis points each time in 2024, so any data that exceeds expectations may be ignored by the market.

In terms of financial events, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech at the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank event with the theme “Macroeconomics and Monetary Policy.”

Some analysts believe that Powell avoided the question of whether the financial environment was too relaxed during the interest rate meeting, which was interpreted by the market as a “buying” signal that the financial environment will not tighten in the short term. Summers said that the Federal Reserve may need a more cautious monetary policy stance to avoid overheating the economy and uncontrolled inflation. Therefore, Powell's speech this time may reveal a clue about the future path of interest rates.

Also, due to Good Friday, the stock markets of the US, Australia, Germany, Italy, Spain, the UK, France, Canada, New Zealand and other countries will be closed for one day, and the Hong Kong stock market will also be closed for one day, and south and northbound trading will be closed; trading of precious metals, US crude oil, foreign exchange, and stock index futures contracts under the US CME will be suspended throughout the day;$Intercontinental Exchange (ICE.US)$Trading of its Brent crude oil futures contracts was suspended throughout the day. Investors are invited to pay attention.

Good luck with your investments in the new week!

edit/ruby