Shareholders of Pop Mart International Group Limited (HKG:9992) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 18% to HK$27.65 following its latest yearly results. Pop Mart International Group reported CN¥6.3b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥0.81 beat expectations, being 6.9% higher than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Pop Mart International Group from 17 analysts is for revenues of CN¥8.15b in 2024. If met, it would imply a major 29% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to surge 27% to CN¥1.04. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of CN¥7.77b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥1.00 in 2024. It looks like there's been a modest increase in sentiment following the latest results, withthe analysts becoming a bit more optimistic in their predictions for both revenues and earnings.
It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for Pop Mart International Group 7.0% to HK$29.26on the back of these upgrades. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Pop Mart International Group at HK$32.79 per share, while the most bearish prices it at HK$18.99. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Pop Mart International Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 29% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 30% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 10% annually. So it's pretty clear that Pop Mart International Group is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Pop Mart International Group's earnings potential next year. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Pop Mart International Group going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also see our analysis of Pop Mart International Group's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.