Incident: On March 15, the company announced the acquisition of 65% shares in the Kitumba copper mine in Zambia. Afmin, a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company, plans to acquire 65% of Junction's shares in cash for $58.5 million. Junction's main asset is the Kitumba copper project in Zambia.
Lay out copper resource development and smelting to create new performance growth points. The Kitumba copper project is currently under development. According to the resource estimation report issued by a third-party independent agency in July 2015, the Kitumba copper mine area has 27.9 million tons of copper resources, 614,000 tons of copper metal, and an average copper grade of 2.20%. The mining area has good prospecting prospects and metallization potential. After the mine acquisition is completed, the company plans to start peripheral prospecting work, conduct a feasibility study on the Kitumba copper project, and determine the next development plan based on the results of the researchable work. Also, on March 7, the company acquired 98% of DPMTH's issued shares for 49 million US dollars. DPMTH's main asset is the Tsumeb smelter in Namibia. Tsumeb smelter is one of the few specialty smelters in the world that can handle complex concentrates such as high-arsenic copper concentrates. Currently, the concentrate processing capacity is 260,000 tons/year, which can be increased to 370,000 tons/year through technological upgrading.
Lithium raw materials are completely self-sufficient, and the lithium salt business has high growth potential. In November 2023, the company's Chunpeng Lithium project with an annual output of 35,000 tons of high-purity lithium salt was completed and put into operation, and the total production capacity of the company's battery-grade lithium salt increased to 66,000 tons. The company's wholly-owned Bikita mine in Zimbabwe has completed production of a 4 million tons/year lithium ore beneficiation project, the 180,000 tons/year spodumene mining production line at the Canadian Tanco mine is fully produced, and the company is completely self-sufficient in the lithium concentrate raw materials required for the company's lithium salt business. The raw materials are completely self-sufficient to create a low cost advantage, and lithium salt production capacity and yield increase growth.
Investment advice: The company's lithium mine is completely self-sufficient to create a low cost advantage, and lithium salt production capacity and output enhance growth. Accelerate the development and refining of copper resources to create new performance growth points. The company is expected to achieve operating income of 79.48/69.46/8.249 billion yuan in 2023-2025, net profit to mother of 24.63/27.10/3.31 billion yuan, respectively, and corresponding EPS of 3.38/3.72/4.56, respectively. The first coverage gave the company a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The price of lithium salt fell sharply, and the release of lithium ore and lithium salt production fell short of expectations.