Niu Technologies (NASDAQ:NIU) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 7.4% to US$1.74 in the week after its latest full-year results. It was a pretty bad result overall, with revenues coming in 21% lower than the analysts predicted. Unsurprisingly, the statutory profit the analysts had been forecasting evaporated, turning into a loss of CN¥3.47 per share. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Niu Technologies after the latest results.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Niu Technologies' three analysts is for revenues of CN¥3.39b in 2024. This reflects a sizeable 28% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Niu Technologies is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of CN¥3.44 per share. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥4.21b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥3.35 in 2024. It looks like there's been a meaningful change to the consensus view following the recent earnings report, with the analysts making a real cut to to revenue forecasts and a small increase to to next year's earnings estimates.
The analysts have cut their price target 14% to US$3.72per share, suggesting that the declining revenue was a more crucial indicator than the expected improvement in earnings. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Niu Technologies at US$6.08 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$2.20. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.
Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Niu Technologies' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 28% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 13% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 13% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Niu Technologies is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Niu Technologies' earnings potential next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. With that said, earnings are more important to the long-term value of the business. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.
Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple Niu Technologies analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
You can also see our analysis of Niu Technologies' Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.