CHINA RESOURCES BUILDING MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS(01313.HK):CEMENT BUSINESS UNDER PRESSURE;AGGREGATES TO SEE RAPID GROWTH
CHINA RESOURCES BUILDING MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS(01313.HK):CEMENT BUSINESS UNDER PRESSURE;AGGREGATES TO SEE RAPID GROWTH
2023 results in line with market consensus
2023 年业绩符合市场共识
China Resources Building Materials Technology Holdings announced its 2023 results: Revenue fell 12.9% YoY to Rmb25.55bn, and attributable net profit dropped 60.1% YoY to Rmb644mn. The 2023 results are in line with market consensus.
华润建材科技控股公布了其2023年业绩：收入同比下降12.9％至人民币255.5亿元，应占净利润同比下降60.1％，至人民币6.44亿元。2023年的业绩符合市场共识。
The firm experienced a YoY decline in full-year sales volume, but the strategic adjustments made since 4Q23 have paid off. The company's cement and clinker sales volume fell 7.6% YoY to 69.3mnt in 2023, and the decline was sharper than the industry average. Sales volume for the Guangdong, Guangxi, and Fujian markets fell 1.5%, 16.0%, and 6.3% YoY, while that of Yunnan and Guizhou markets rose 1.3% and 2.1% YoY. However, the firm has adjusted its sales strategy since 4Q23. Per our estimates, its sales volume rose 11.6% YoY to about 21.96mnt in 4Q23, suggesting that its adjustment efforts have paid off.
该公司的全年销售量同比下降，但自23年第四季度以来所做的战略调整已获得回报。2023年，该公司的水泥和熟料销售量同比下降7.6％，至6930万吨，下降幅度大于行业平均水平。广东、广西和福建市场的销量同比下降1.5％、16.0％和6.3％，而云南和贵州市场的销量同比增长1.3％和2.1％。但是，自23年第四季度以来，该公司已经调整了销售策略。根据我们的估计，其销售量在23年第四季度同比增长11.6％，达到约21.96万亿英镑，这表明其调整努力已获得回报。
Prices and gross profit per tonne are under pressure due to fierce price competition. In 2023, the ASP of the firm's cement and clinker was Rmb273/t (-Rmb35/t YoY). Its unit cost was Rmb239/t (-Rmb19/t YoY), and the gross profit per tonne was Rmb34/t (-Rmb16/t YoY). The falling costs failed to fully offset the impact of falling prices.
由于激烈的价格竞争，每吨的价格和毛利润面临压力。2023年，该公司水泥和熟料的ASP为273元人民币/吨（同比下降35元/吨）。其单位成本为人民币239元/吨（同比-19元人民币），每吨毛利为人民币34元/吨（同比-16元人民币）。成本下降未能完全抵消价格下跌的影响。
Expenses per tonne rose YoY. We estimate the firm's cement and clinker expenses per tonne at about Rmb49 in 2023, up Rmb6 YoY.
每吨支出同比增长。我们估计，该公司2023年每吨水泥和熟料支出约为49元人民币，同比增长6元人民币。
Production and sales volume of the aggregate business increased significantly, and its GM was stable. In 2023, the firm's aggregate sales volume rose 201.5% YoY to 45.58mnt, and its ASP dropped by Rmb2/t YoY to Rmb35/t. Its GM fell 1.1ppt YoY to 54.3%, largely stable.
总体业务的产量和销售量大幅增长，其通用汽车保持稳定。2023年，该公司的总销售量同比增长201.5％，至45.58万亿元，其ASP同比下降2元人民币至35元人民币。其通用汽车同比下降1.1个百分点至54.3％，基本稳定。
Operating cash flow improved despite headwinds, and capex fell markedly. In 2023, the firm's net operating cash flow rose 46.9% YoY to Rmb3.92bn, and its capex fell 53% YoY to Rmb5.21bn.
尽管存在不利因素，但运营现金流仍有所改善，资本支出明显下降。2023年，该公司的净运营现金流同比增长46.9％至39.2亿元人民币，资本支出同比下降53％，至52.1亿元人民币。
Healthy balance sheet; maintaining a high dividend payout ratio. By the end of 2023, the firm's net borrowing ratio rose 2ppt YoY to 30%, and long-term loans accounted for 85% of the total, largely stable. The firm declared a dividend of about HK$0.047/sh, implying a payout ratio of about 46%, remaining high.
健康的资产负债表；保持较高的股息支付率。到2023年底，该公司的净借款比率同比增长2个百分点至30％，长期贷款占总额的85％，基本稳定。该公司宣布派发约0.047港元的股息，这意味着派息率约为46％，仍然很高。
Trends to watch
值得关注的趋势
Aggregate business to grow rapidly, with higher profit contribution. By the end of 2023, the firm's aggregate production capacity was around 92.50mnt with a potential production capacity of nearly 150mnt. We expect its aggregate business to enter a period of rapid growth with rising output, sales, and profit contribution. In 2024, we expect the ASP and gross profit per tonne of aggregates to rise steadily, with the production capacity ramp-up at its bases in Guangdong with higher ASP.
聚合业务快速增长，利润贡献更高。到2023年底，该公司的总产能约为92.50万吨，潜在产能接近1.5亿吨。我们预计，随着产出、销售和利润贡献的增加，其总体业务将进入快速增长时期。我们预计，2024年，ASP和每吨骨料的毛利润将稳步增长，其广东基地的产能将增加，ASP的增加。
Focusing on gaining market share and cost reduction; we expect the firm to strengthen its regional leadership. The company has proposed a strategy of winning market share, avoiding breaking the bottom line, optimizing product structure, and improving market position. The focus is on cost reduction and core competitiveness improvement along the value chain. We expect the company to cement its leading position in southern China in 2024.
专注于获得市场份额和降低成本；我们预计该公司将加强其区域领导地位。该公司提出了一项赢得市场份额、避免突破底线、优化产品结构和提高市场地位的战略。重点是降低成本和提高价值链中的核心竞争力。我们预计该公司将在2024年巩固其在中国南方的领先地位。
Financials and valuation
财务和估值
As cement prices in regional markets missed our expectations, we lower our 2024 attributable net profit forecast by 38% to Rmb676mn and introduce a 2025 attributable net profit forecast of Rmb804mn. The stock is trading at 12.0x 2024e and 9.7x 2025e P/E. We maintain an OUTPERFORM rating. Given the company's leading position in the region is expected to be consolidated and its competitiveness is expected to increase, we only cut our target price 28% to HK$1.93, implying 17.7x 2024e and 14.3x 2025e P/E, offering 47% upside.
由于区域市场的水泥价格未达到我们的预期，我们将2024年的归属净利润预测下调了38％，至人民币6.76亿元，并公布了2025年可归净利润预测为8.04亿元人民币。该股的市盈率为2024年的12.0倍，2025年的市盈率为9.7倍。我们维持跑赢大盘的评级。鉴于该公司在该地区的领先地位预计将得到巩固，其竞争力预计将提高，我们仅将目标价格下调28％至1.93港元，这意味着2024年市盈率为17.7倍，2025年市盈率为14.3倍，上涨幅为47％。
Risks
风险
Demand recovery disappoints; competition intensifies.
需求复苏令人失望；竞争加剧。
译文内容由第三方软件翻译。