公司核心产品稳健增长。2023 年公司自身免疫病药物实现收入5.72 亿元，益赛普的国内收入增长10.50%，主要是加大科室覆盖，以及2023 年Q1 预充针剂型上市所致；赛普汀实现收入2.26 亿，同比增长41.80%，询证医学证据积累后产品认同度提升；抗排异药物健尼哌实现收入0.44 亿，同比增长59.38%；CDMO 业务实现收入0.64 亿，有所回调；实现授权许可收入0.99亿。Incidents:
The company released its 2023 annual report. In 2023, it achieved revenue of 1,014 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.84%, achieved net profit of 295 million yuan, an increase of 497.63% over the previous year, and achieved net profit withheld from non-mother of 207 million yuan, a significant increase over the previous year, and the performance was in line with expectations. The company plans to pay 0.5 yuan for every 10 shares.
The main business is growing steadily
The company's core products are growing steadily. The company's autoimmune drugs achieved revenue of 572 million yuan in 2023, and Exaipu's domestic revenue increased by 10.50%, mainly due to increased department coverage and the launch of the Q1 prefilled dosage form in 2023; Cyptin achieved revenue of 226 million, an increase of 41.80% over the previous year, and product acceptance increased after the accumulation of corroborative medical evidence; the anti-rejection drug Gennippe achieved revenue of 44 million yuan, an increase of 59.38% over the previous year; the CDMO business achieved revenue of 0.64 million yuan, with some correction in licensing revenue.
Anti-inflammation-free products are progressing steadily
The company's many anti-inflammation and anti-inflammation products are progressing steadily. The IL-17A monoclonal antibody reached the main end in 2023Q4 in the phase III clinical trial of moderate to severe plaque psoriasis, and the company expects to complete the NDA application for this indication in 2024; IL-4Rα monoclonal antibody reached the main end in 2023q3 in the phase II clinical study of moderate to severe atopic dermatitis, and Q4 initiated phase II clinical trials of COPD. The company expects the product to complete the enrollment of phase III clinical patients with dermatitis in 2024; IL-5 monoclonal antibody will begin phase III clinical enrollment of asthma in 2024; IL-1β The monoclonal antibody program will complete phase III clinical enrollment of patients with acute gout arthritis in 2024.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
Due to the successive confirmation of authorized revenue, we raised our revenue forecast. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 11.88/12.05/1,420 million, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 17.20%/1.38%/17.90%, net profit to mother of 2.96/2.53/290 million, year-on-year growth rates of 0.58%/-14.76%/14.98%, and EPS 0.48/0.41/0.47 yuan/share, respectively. In view of the company's IL-4Rα potential targets such as expanding COPD and laying out IL-33, the DCF absolute valuation method measured the value of the pipeline of 16.2 billion yuan, which is 33 times the average valuation of the company in 2024 (corresponding stock business valuation of 2.8 billion yuan), and the total authorized revenue to be confirmed was 19.323 billion yuan. The segmented valuation method gave the company a target price of 31.32 yuan to maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Adalim biosimilar collection; self-immune drug development/sales fall short of expectations; risk of worsening competition pattern for self-immune drugs
