Incident: The company released its 2023 annual report. In 2023, it achieved operating income of 1,825 million yuan, an increase of 70.30%; net profit to mother was 501 million yuan, an increase of 175.98%; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 493 million yuan, an increase of 195.86% year on year
Shingles is in its release period, and chickenpox remains relatively stable. On a quarterly basis, 23Q4 achieved revenue of 582 million yuan, an increase of 182.65% over the previous year, and realized net profit of 170 million yuan, an increase of 45.59% over the previous year. Q4 The chickenpox vaccine remains stable, and shingles contributed a major increase. The company went public with shingles at the end of January and was issued in the first batch in April.
The shingles vaccine is a major global vaccine. Against the backdrop of deepening aging, we expect the domestic shingles vaccine market to continue to expand as affordability increases and vaccination rates increase.
As sales expenses increased with revenue, R&D expenses increased significantly. In 2023, the company's sales expenses were 647 million yuan (+57.22%), with a sales rate of 35.47% (-2.95pp). The company focused on promoting shingles listing and sales; administrative expenses of 159 million yuan (+10.30%), management fee rate of 8.73% (-4.75pp); R&D expenses of 198 million yuan (+48.34%), R&D expenses rate of 10.86% (-1.61pp); financial rate -0.67% (+1.21pp). In 2023, the company's inventory balance was 199 million yuan, accounting for about 3.94% of assets, a year-on-year decrease of 0.54 pp. The total balance of the company's accounts receivable and notes receivable at the end of the period in 2023 was $1,567 billion, accounting for 85.89% of revenue, a year-on-year decrease of 4.49pp.
The layout of the research pipeline is rich, creating a moat for long-term development. The company's components are also worth paying attention to, such as the liquid preparation for nasal spray influenza, all-human anti-rabies monoclonal antibody, all-human anti-tetanus monoclonal antibody, Hib, influenza virus lysis vaccine (BK-01 adjuvant), and recombinant shingles vaccine. The company gradually increased capital and acquired shares in mRNA company Communication Biotech, and eventually held 100% of its shares, further enriching the company's technical platform and product pipeline, and building a moat for long-term development.
Profit forecast and investment advice: We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 26.45, 33.87, and 4.128 billion yuan, respectively, up 44.98%, 28.02%, and 21.89% year-on-year; net profit to mother will be 7.70, 10.29, and 1.290 billion yuan, respectively, up 53.62%, 33.76%, and 25.31% year-on-year. As a leader in the chickenpox vaccine, the company is expected to resume doses of nasal spray influenza, contribute significantly to the marketing of shingles, and maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Risk of R&D progress falling short of expectations, risk of vaccine product sales falling short of expectations, risk of negative events in the vaccine industry; risk of vaccine failure due to coronavirus mutations; risk of delayed information or untimely updates in public data used in research reports.