The annual results for Changchun High-Tech Industries (Group) Inc. (SZSE:000661) were released last week, making it a good time to revisit its performance. Revenues of CN¥15b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at CN¥11.06, missing estimates by 6.6%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.
After the latest results, the nine analysts covering Changchun High-Tech Industries (Group) are now predicting revenues of CN¥16.7b in 2024. If met, this would reflect a solid 14% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 23% to CN¥13.82. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CN¥16.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of CN¥13.89 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.
The analysts reconfirmed their price target of CN¥203, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Changchun High-Tech Industries (Group) analyst has a price target of CN¥208 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CN¥198. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Changchun High-Tech Industries (Group)'s revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 14% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 19% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 15% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Changchun High-Tech Industries (Group)'s revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. The consensus price target held steady at CN¥203, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Changchun High-Tech Industries (Group) analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Another thing to consider is whether management and directors have been buying or selling stock recently. We provide an overview of all open market stock trades for the last twelve months on our platform, here.
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