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Earnings Working Against Citizens, Inc.'s (NYSE:CIA) Share Price Following 25% Dive

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 22 03:21

The Citizens, Inc. (NYSE:CIA) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 25%. Instead of being rewarded, shareholders who have already held through the last twelve months are now sitting on a 33% share price drop.

Following the heavy fall in price, given about half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 17x, you may consider Citizens as a highly attractive investment with its 4.2x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/E.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Citizens over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the disappointing earnings performance to continue or accelerate, which has repressed the P/E. However, if this doesn't eventuate then existing shareholders may be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

pe-multiple-vs-industry
NYSE:CIA Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry March 21st 2024
Want the full picture on earnings, revenue and cash flow for the company? Then our free report on Citizens will help you shine a light on its historical performance.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should far underperform the market for P/E ratios like Citizens' to be considered reasonable.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 5.2% decrease to the company's bottom line. This has erased any of its gains during the last three years, with practically no change in EPS being achieved in total. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing earnings over that time.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 11% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this information, we can see why Citizens is trading at a P/E lower than the market. It seems most investors are expecting to see the recent limited growth rates continue into the future and are only willing to pay a reduced amount for the stock.

The Final Word

Shares in Citizens have plummeted and its P/E is now low enough to touch the ground. Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-earnings ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

We've established that Citizens maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its recent three-year growth being lower than the wider market forecast, as expected. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. If recent medium-term earnings trends continue, it's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

Many other vital risk factors can be found on the company's balance sheet. You can assess many of the main risks through our free balance sheet analysis for Citizens with six simple checks.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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