Learn from history! In the last 12 days of “halving”, can Bitcoin usher in a new wave of bull market?

Futu News ·  Apr 8 09:18

In March, fervent interest from investors once drove the price of Bitcoin to a record high of nearly $74,000, then began to turn its head downward, once falling below the $62,000 mark. Currently, Bitcoin is back above $69,000.

As the price of Bitcoin reached new heights, people began to pay attention to its impending “halving” and whether it played a role in Bitcoin's price increase.

According to data from the Bitcoinblockhalf website, the current block height is only 12 days away from Bitcoin's halving, and the halving is expected to take place on April 20, 2024.

Many investors may wonder when they see this, what is a “halving”? What impact will this incident have on Bitcoin?

What is halving?

Bitcoin's “halving” is a predetermined event in the Bitcoin network where the reward for mining a Bitcoin block is halved. This halving occurs approximately every four years, or after 210,000 blocks have been mined.

This is a critical part of Bitcoin's design, which controls inflation by reducing the rate at which new bitcoins are generated, increasing Bitcoin's scarcity and potentially affecting its value. The purpose of Bitcoin halving is to mimic the effects of gold mining, that is, as new gold deposits decrease, the benefits of mining bitcoins will also decrease, thus ensuring the controlled release of new bitcoins in circulation.

Here's a summary of past and anticipated future halving events, as well as corresponding block reward changes:

First halving (November 28, 2012): Block rewards dropped from 50 BTC to 25 BTC.

Second halving (July 9, 2016): Block rewards dropped from 25 BTC to 12.5 BTC.

Third halving (May 11, 2020): Block rewards dropped from 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC.

Fourth halving (expected April 2024): Block rewards are expected to drop from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.

Fifth halving (expected 2028): Block rewards are expected to drop from 3.125 BTC to 1.5625 BTC.

Source: Datawallet

How will the halving affect Bitcoin?

The halving events are all closely linked to the entire crypto market's bull cycle. Historically, after every halving occurred, the price of Bitcoin rose rapidly in 6 to 18 months and reached a record high. As you can see from the image below:

After the first halving in 2012, Bitcoin soared from $12 to $1,156. It took about 1 year, with an increase of 9375%;

After the second halving in 2016, the currency price rose from 660 US dollars to about 20,000 US dollars. It took about 1.5 years, an increase of 2915%;

After the third halving in 2020, the currency price rose from 8755 US dollars to about 65,000 US dollars. It took about 1 year, and the increase reached 742%.

Which companies are expected to benefit?

Previously, when the Bitcoin ETF was approved, Futu Information compiled some Bitcoin concept stocks. The details are as follows:

  • Exchanges

As the world's largest cryptocurrency trading platform$Coinbase (COIN.US)$The performance is closely related to the cryptocurrency market. Bitcoin price fluctuations directly affect Coinbase's revenue performance.

Market analysts believe that as the price of Bitcoin and Ethereum soars, more individual investors may return to the market, thereby boosting the company's business.

  • Mining stocks

For mining companies, halving Bitcoin means cutting revenue in half, that is, doubling costs with equal benefits. This will undoubtedly impact the profitability of Bitcoin miners, and miners who are unable to maintain profits will have to quit the Bitcoin mining business. However, on the other hand, the exit of unprofitable miners may make Bitcoin mining less difficult, while the remaining Bitcoin miners are more likely to increase their profits.

However, in reality, it is difficult to assess the extent to which the Bitcoin halving will affect Bitcoin mining companies' stocks because there are many factors to consider, including broader market developments, performance reports, etc. Additionally, investors may have set prices for Bitcoin mining companies' shares in half.

The halving is likely to have at most a temporary impact on Bitcoin mining companies; the most important factor is still the price of Bitcoin. If the price of Bitcoin continues to rise, then the halving may not matter, as these mining companies are likely to still earn much more in the future.

Wall Street bank Bernstein pointed out that Bitcoin mining stocks are the best stock agents to participate in this round of growth. The bank is more optimistic$Riot Platforms (RIOT.US)$und$CleanSpark (CLSK.US)$The reason is that these two companies are the largest “self-mining” miners, they have the lowest mining costs, and they don't have any bitcoin debts on their balance sheets. Analysts also pointed out that

Throughout the cycle, Bitcoin miners almost always outperformed Bitcoin during the bull market and almost always underperformed Bitcoin during the bear market.

Compass White's analyst Chase White said: Miners at the lower end of the cost curve, limited debt amounts, and plenty of liquidity between Bitcoin and cash on their balance sheets will be the best performing miners in 2024. Its representation

Private miners are likely to face the biggest predicament because they are harder to access capital than publicly traded miners, which can sell shares on the market. He recommended Riot Platforms,$Iris Energy (IREN.US)$,$Cipher Mining (CIFR.US)$ with$Bitfarms (BITF.US)$.

Overall, although Bitcoin's expansion in all dimensions has brought opportunities to mining companies, the revenue challenge brought about by the halving is still serious. Mining companies need to control costs and seek more revenue models.

  • Coin holdings

“Bitcoin shadow stock”, the listed company that holds the most Bitcoin in the world$MicroStrategy (MSTR.US)$Bitcoin holdings have been increasing since 2020, and its stock has become a “place to go” for investors who want to bet on Bitcoin and can't buy it directly.

TD Cowen said MicroStrategy is an attractive investment tool for investors looking to invest in Bitcoin. This is the only reason to buy MicroStrategy shares because you want to own Bitcoin. Another benefit of buying the company's shares is that as a stock, it doesn't charge management fees like a cryptocurrency ETF.

It should be mentioned that according to MicroStrategy's current market capitalization of about $24 billion, total debt, and Wall Street's preliminary calculation of the company's core business of about $1.5 billion, the company's market value has a premium of more than 90% compared to the value of Bitcoin on the balance sheet.


Cow friends,

Do you think Bitcoin will usher in a new round of bull market after halving?

Which concept stock are you most optimistic about?

Welcome to leave your thoughts in the comments area~


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