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研报掘金丨中金:华能国际业绩符合市场预期,看好火电利润继续上行

Research Report Nuggets丨CICC: Huaneng International's performance is in line with market expectations, and I am optimistic that thermal power profits will continue to rise

Gelonghui Finance ·  Mar 21 15:39
Gelonghui, March 21 | CICC's research report indicates that Huaneng International (600011.SH)'s 2023 performance is in line with market expectations, returns to dividends, and is optimistic that thermal power profits will continue to rise. On the income side, strong demand for electricity compounded by insufficient incoming water. The use of coal and electricity was +3.8% per hour, and electricity prices were +0.1% year-on-year, maintaining a high rise. On the cost side, the unit fuel cost was 326 yuan/megawatt-hour, -12.4% year-on-year. The ignition price difference was measured at 107 yuan/megawatt-hour, or +73% year-on-year, driving 430 million yuan (2022 to 17.3 billion yuan) of profit before thermal power tax in 2023. In addition, the net revenue from peak frequency modulation services in 2023 was 2,223 million yuan/495 million yuan, accounting for a total revenue ratio of 1.1%, and the adjusted value of thermal power is being realized. Looking ahead to 2024, it is believed that the reduction in the company's electricity prices is better than the price of coal, that profits from thermal power will continue to be released, that the price of electricity capacity etc. will improve profit stability, and that backward units are expected to be gradually transformed and eliminated to improve power generation efficiency. After returning to the dividend tradition, the company's 2024E/2025E dividend ratio is expected to correspond to the current H share price of 6.8%/7.3%, and the dividend value is prominent. High dividends boosted valuations and kept the target price and outperforming industry ratings unchanged. The target price for A shares was $10.49 and the target price for H shares was HK$5.35.

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