GEELY AUTOMOBILE(175.HK):MOST BUSINESSES ARE TRENDING UP
GEELY AUTOMOBILE(175.HK):MOST BUSINESSES ARE TRENDING UP
Maintain BUY. We are of the view that Geely's FY23 earnings quality was better than FY21-22. We believe most of its businesses are poised to enjoy higher profits in FY24E. Some investors may overlook Geely's recent assets disposal to ease its lingering D&A burden by leveraging its parent's resources.
维持买入。我们认为，吉利23财年的收益质量好于 FY21-22。我们认为，其大多数业务有望在 FY24E 中获得更高的利润。一些投资者可能会忽略吉利最近的资产处置，以利用其母公司的资源来减轻其挥之不去的并购负担。
2H23 OP in-line, NP beat. Geely's 2H23 revenue was largely in line while GPM was about 0.8ppt higher than our forecast, underscoring our prior argument that Geely brand's margins could be more resilient than expected. SG&A expenses were higher than expected, which led to an in-line operating profit in 2H23 (2% lower than our estimates). Net profit in 2H23 beat our estimates by 18% on lower share-based payment, tax expenses and higher interest income. Zeekr's net loss of RMB1.1bn in FY23 was also better than our prior forecast of RMB2bn. Although we estimate the IP licensing and R&D support service still accounted for about 1/3 of Geely's FY23 net profit, we believe its earnings quality has improved compared with FY21-22, especially as Geely expensed R&D of RMB3.3bn in FY23, 71% higher than that in FY22.
2H23 OP 在线，NP 节拍。吉利23年下半年的收入基本持平，而GPM比我们的预测高出约0.8个百分点，这凸显了我们先前的论点，即吉利品牌的利润率可能比预期更具弹性。销售和收购费用高于预期，这使23年下半年的营业利润保持在预期（比我们的估计低2％）。由于股票支付减少、税收支出和利息收入增加，23下半年的净利润比我们的预期高出18％。极客在23财年净亏损11亿元人民币也好于我们先前预测的20亿元人民币。尽管我们估计知识产权许可和研发支持服务仍占吉利23财年净利润的三分之一左右，但我们认为其盈利质量与 FY21-22 相比有所改善，尤其是吉利在23财年的研发支出为33亿元人民币，比22财年增长71％。
Profitability of Zeekr and equity-method entities to improve in FY24E. We are of the view that management's guidance of Zeekr's breakeven under HKFRS in FY24E is feasible. We slightly revise up our FY24E sales volume by 10,000 units to 0.22mn units, given its current order backlog. We project equity income in FY24E to surge 156% YoY to RMB1.5bn, amid Lynk & Co's loss cut, Livan's disposal and Proton's full-year contribution. Although we project lower GPM for the Geely brand (incl. Geometry and Galaxy) in FY24E, we believe the fall could be limited, given higher portion of exports.
在 FY24E 中，极客和股票法实体的盈利能力将得到改善。我们认为，管理层在 FY24E 中对 Zeekr 在《香港财务报告准则》下的盈亏平衡的指导是可行的。鉴于目前的订单积压，我们将 FY24E 的销量略微上调了 10,000 辆，至 0.22 万辆。我们预计，在领克减亏损、利文出售和宝腾全年出资的情况下，FY24E 的股权收益将同比增长156％，达到15亿元人民币。尽管我们预计吉利品牌（包括Geometry和Galaxy）在 FY24E 中的GPM会降低，但鉴于出口份额的增加，我们认为下降幅度可能有限。
Assets disposal to cut D&A and focus on core brands. Apart from Livan's disposal to cut loss, Geely has also planned to sell its stakes in Aurobay in exchange for shares in the JV with its parent and Renault. Such disposal could reduce Geely's depreciation and amortization by more than RMB1bn every year, on our estimates. We revise up our FY24E net profit by 7%.
资产处置以削减并购并专注于核心品牌。除了出售利文以减少亏损外，吉利还计划出售其在Aurobay的股份，以换取与母公司和雷诺合资企业的股份。根据我们的估计，这种处置每年可以使吉利的折旧和摊销减少超过10亿元人民币。我们将我们的 FY24E 净利润上调了7％。
Valuation/Key risks. We value Zeekr at 1.3x (unchanged) our revised FY24E core revenue (excluding Viridi's battery pack sales and R&D services), which implies HK$80bn for Zeekr's valuation. We value Geely's all other businesses excluding Zeekr at 13x (unchanged) FY24E P/E . We maintain our BUY rating and target price of HK$14.00. Key risks to our rating and target price include lower sales volume and GPM, especially for NEVs, than we expect and sector de-rating.
估值/主要风险。我们对Zeekr的估值为修订后的 FY24E 核心收入（不包括Viridi的电池组销售和研发服务）的1.3倍（不变），这意味着极客的估值为800亿港元。我们对吉利除极客以外的所有其他业务的估值为13倍（不变）FY24E 市盈率。我们维持买入评级和目标价14.00港元。我们评级和目标价格的主要风险包括销量和GPM，尤其是新能源汽车的销量和GPM，低于我们的预期，以及行业评级下调。
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