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大行评级丨麦格理:削中通快递目标价至25.3美元 包裹量增抵销价格压力

Major Bank Ratings丨Macquarie: Cutting Zhongtong Express's Target Price to $25.3 to Offset Price Pressure by Increasing Package Volume

Gelonghui Finance ·  Mar 21 11:48
Longhui, March 21 | Macquarie published a report stating that ZTO.US (ZTO.US)'s profit declined slightly in the fourth quarter of last year, or due to continued price competition, which was partially offset by improvements in operational efficiency. The company's package volume increased by 32%, leading the industry by 5%. Management maintains a positive view of the company's express delivery market share. It is expected that this year's package volume will increase by 15% to 18% year-on-year, compared to the growth rate of 10% to 12% in the same industry. The bank believes that Zhongtong Express paid 62 US cents last year, an increase of 68% year-on-year, with a dividend payout ratio of 40%. The board of directors has approved a semi-annual regular dividend payment policy starting this year and expanding the current repurchase plan by $500 million, demonstrating management's commitment to shareholder returns. However, the company's adjusted net profit was 10% and 7% lower than the bank's and market expectations, respectively, mainly due to fierce price competition. The bank lowered Zhongtong Express's net profit forecast for this year and next by 8% each to reflect the pressure on gross profit under market competition. The target price for Zhongtong Express's US stock was lowered from 35.8 US dollars to 25.3 US dollars, outperforming the market.

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