The company released its 2023 annual report. In 2023, the company achieved revenue of 14.566 billion yuan (+15%, the following are year-on-year values), net profit to mother of 4.532 billion yuan (+9%), and net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 4.516 billion yuan (+10%). Among them, 23Q4 achieved revenue of 3.884 billion yuan (+30%), net profit to mother of 920 million yuan (+36%), and net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 899 million yuan (+31%), which is in line with expectations.
The proportion of long-acting growth hormone increased steadily, and 100 grams of shingles was rapidly released. By business, Jinsai Pharmaceutical achieved annual revenue of 11.084 billion yuan (+8%) and net profit of 4.514 billion yuan (+7%). The company continued to promote market acceptance of the efficacy and safety of long-term growth hormone, driving a continuous increase in the share of long-term growth hormone; Baike Biotech achieved revenue of 1,825 million yuan (+70%) and net profit of 501 million yuan (+176%), mainly driven by the rapid release of the new shingles vaccine; Huakang Pharmaceutical achieved revenue of 703 million yuan (+7%) and net profit of 37 million yuan (+18%); Gaoxin Real estate achieved revenue of $915 million (+14%) and net profit of $74 million (+16%).
Adhere to the differentiated product strategy and continue to enrich the R&D pipeline. According to the company's 2023 annual report, the company's key research projects include long-acting growth hormone (domestic adult indications and US phase III clinical trials), injectable kinazumab (acute gout arthritis is in phase III), selective androgen receptor modulators (EG017 tablets for stress urinary incontinence, EG017 ointment for dry eyes, etc., in phase II clinical), water-soluble progesterone injections (in the ANDA reporting stage), and injectable long-acting progesterone preparations (approved clinical trials), etc.
Profit forecasting and investment advice. We expect the company's 2024-2026 EPS to be 12.57, 14.28, and 16.07 yuan/share, respectively. Considering the continuous increase in the revenue share of the company's long-term growth hormone products, adding 100 grams of shingles is expected to accelerate the release, giving the company 15 times PE in 2024, corresponding to a reasonable value of 188.52 yuan/share, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning. The risk of price reduction in drug collection; competition in the growth hormone market increases the risk; the risk that sales of new products fall short of expectations after launch; the progress of products under development does not meet expectations, etc.