Incidents:
The company disclosed its 2023 annual report, achieving revenue of 1,825 million yuan, up 70.30% year on year; net profit of 501 million yuan, up 175.98% year on year; net profit without return to mother of 493 million yuan, up 195.86% year on year; single Q4 achieved revenue of 581 million yuan, up 182.65% year on year; net profit of 170 million yuan, up 661.07% year on year; net profit after deducting net profit of 168 million yuan, up 604.01% year on year.
The performance was in line with expectations.
Rapid release of the shingles vaccine increases profitability
The company's core products are shingles vaccine, chickenpox vaccine, and nasal spray influenza vaccine. Among them, the shingles vaccine achieved revenue of 883 million yuan in 2023, with sales of 663,500 units, gross profit margin of 97.5%; chickenpox vaccine achieved revenue of 820 million yuan, down 14.36% year on year, sales volume of 6.711,400 units, down 13.59% year on year; gross profit margin of 85.35%, down 2.72 pct year on year; nasal spray influenza vaccine achieved revenue of 122 million yuan, up 6.85% year on year, and sales volume of 419,600 units, up 8.37% year on year, gross profit margin 70.60%, down 9.23 pcts year on year. The company's overall gross profit margin was 90.23%, up 3.04pct year on year, sales expense ratio 35.47%, down 2.95pct year on year, management expense ratio 8.73%, down 4.75pct year on year, R&D expense ratio 10.86%, down 1.61 pct year on year, financial expense ratio -0.67%, up 1.21pct year on year, net interest rate 27.46%, up 10.51 pct year on year.
The pipeline layout of products under development is rich
In terms of research pipeline, the company's liquid nasal spray influenza vaccine is about to apply for marketing approval; the DPT vaccine (three components) has completed phase I clinical trials and is being prepared for phase III clinical trials; rabies monoclonal antibodies are undergoing phase I clinical research; clinical trial applications for freeze-dried rabies vaccine (human diploid cells) and tetanus monoclonal antibodies have been approved, and phase I clinical research is about to be carried out; in addition, the products being developed by the company also include RSV vaccines, antibodies, and vaccines for Alzheimer's disease treatment, etc., forming a tiered product pipeline.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 2,578/30.73/3.491 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 41.30%/19.17%/13.63%, net profit to mother of 7.81/954/1.03 billion yuan, year-on-year growth rates of 55.88%/22.21%/15.56%, EPS of 1.89/2.31/2.67 yuan/share, respectively, and a 3-year CAGR of 30.08%. In view of the company's first domestic shingles vaccine manufacturer, based on comparable company estimates, we gave the company 35 times PE in 2024, with a target price of 66.21 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risks such as changes in industry policies, declining demand for vaccines, increased market competition, falling short of expectations in sales, seasonal fluctuations, and single differences in product structure