Incidents:
On March 19, 2024, Xiaopeng Motor announced financial data for the full year of 2023 and 2023Q4. Total revenue for 2023 was RMB 30.68 billion, up 14.2% year on year, and net loss for 2023 was RMB 10.38 billion. 2023Q4 revenue was 13.05 billion yuan, up 153.9% year on year and 53.0% month on month.
Delivery is up year over year, and high sales growth is expected in March
In 2023, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 142,000 vehicles, an increase of 17.3% over the previous year. Among them, Xiaopeng Motor delivered a total of 60,000 new vehicles in 2023Q4, an increase of 170.9% over the previous year. The iteration of the product matrix and the launch of new models helped Xiaopeng's delivery data to improve steadily year over year, and high sales growth guaranteed revenue fulfillment. In 2023, we achieved revenue of 30.68 billion yuan, up 14.2% year on year, and 2023Q4 revenue of 13.05 billion yuan, up 153.9% year on year and 53.0% month on month. It is expected that 21—22,500 vehicles will be delivered in 2024Q1, up 15.2%-23.4% year on year. The Mona brand is expected to be launched in April, and the rich brand matrix and sales growth are expected to continue to increase revenue.
Q4 Gross margin was corrected, and profitability is expected to improve at an accelerated pace
Xiaopeng Motor's gross margin for the 2023Q4 single quarter was 6.2%, which was positive from month to month. Among them, the gross margin of automobile sales was 4.1%, a significant increase from 2023Q3. After the launch of the 2024Q1 Xiaopeng X9, the share of high-margin models continued to increase, and profitability recovered at an accelerated pace. 2023Q4 R&D expenditure and SG&A were 1.31 billion yuan and 1.94 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding cost rates were 10.0% and 14.9%, respectively, down 5.2 pct and 4.9 pct from month to month. The company is still in the investment stage, and the increase in gross margin and scale effects are expected to accelerate the improvement in profitability.
Global strategy accelerates, intelligent leadership and cooperation accelerate entry into the market
In terms of intelligent driving, Xiaopeng Motor will develop high-speed NGP for overseas markets this year, and will launch XNGP research and development in 2025, becoming the world's leading smart driving company. In terms of global strategy, in February, Xiaopeng Motor and Volkswagen Group signed a strategic platform and software technology cooperation to accelerate global deployment. At the same time, a strategic partnership was established with the UAE distributor Ali&Sons Group, and it is expected that delivery of models to the five Middle Eastern and African countries will begin in 2024Q2.
Channel optimization enhances sales capacity and improves charging networks
Xiaopeng's channel structure continues to be optimized. The number of stores already opened in 2023Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 is 425/411/395/500, respectively. The “Jupiter Plan” brought about by the “Jupiter Plan” has accelerated dealer optimization and steady sales capacity.
The charging network continues to improve. As of December 31, 2023, Xiaopeng had 1108 charging stations, including 902 self-operated overcharging stations and 206 destination charging stations, which fully alleviated mileage anxiety.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
Due to increased market competition and an increase in the share of low-value models, we expect the company's sales volume to be 29/54/650,000 units in 24/25/26, respectively, and corresponding revenue of 767/1269/138.2 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 150%/65%/9%, respectively. Net profit attributable to mother was -62/8/3.7 billion yuan, respectively. Continued attention is recommended.
Risk warning: The advancement of intelligent functions falls short of expectations; the impact of intelligence on vehicle sales is less than expected.