The stabilization of the sales system and the start of the new car cycle are expected to drive a trend recovery in sales and maintain the “gain” rating
Based on the company's weak Q1 delivery and lower sales of old models than expected, the new car cycle was mainly focused on the 2024H2 release. We lowered the 2024-2025 revenue forecast from 703/113.9 billion yuan to 485/80.5 billion yuan, and added the 2026 revenue forecast of 95.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 58%/66%/19%; lowered the 2024-2025 non-GAAP net profit forecast from -66,400 million yuan to -87/3.3 billion yuan, and added 2026 non-GAAP net profit The forecast is 600 million yuan, and the corresponding adjusted EPS is -4.9/-1.9/0.3 yuan. The current stock price of HK$40.55 corresponds to 2024-2026 1.4/0.8/0.7 times PS. Benefiting from the short-term seasonal recovery of the automobile industry, the stabilization of its own sales system, and the launch of the new car product cycle, it is expected to drive the company's sales trend recovery in March and beyond. The release of cost reduction benefits in the supply chain will reserve more flexible space for the company's pricing and marketing. The release of the 2024H2 scale effect is expected to further drive an improvement in gross margin and maintain an “increase” rating.
2023Q4 losses narrowed beyond expectations, mainly due to automobile gross margin and other earnings exceeding expectations
2023Q4's revenue of 13.1 billion yuan is in line with our original expectations. It corresponds to the ASP increase from 196,000 yuan in 2023Q3 to 203,000 yuan in 2023Q4, mainly due to the increase in G9 sales volume by 19pct to 26% month-on-month; the gross margin of 2023Q4 vehicles increased 10.2 pct to 4.1% month-on-month, which greatly exceeded market expectations, mainly due to the decline in bicycle costs. The cost of bicycles fell from 20.2 million yuan in 2023Q3 to 191,000 yuan in 2023Q4, and combined with other earnings exceeding expectations 350 million yuan, mainly due to an increase in government subsidies. In response, non-GAAP net loss narrowed from 2.8 billion yuan in 2023Q3, which exceeded expectations to 1.8 billion yuan in 2023Q4, and bicycle loss fell from 70,000 yuan to 29,000 yuan.
The 2024H2 new car cycle has started and the store scale continues to expand, which is expected to drive monthly sales to reach a new high of 20,000
According to the company's guidelines, the 2024Q1 delivery target is 21—22,500 vehicles. Approximately 13,000 vehicles were delivered in January-January, corresponding to the March delivery target of 8,200-9700 vehicles. We expect the company to be able to complete the March delivery target. Looking ahead to 2024, the company expects to officially launch the new brand Mona at the Beijing Auto Show in April, focusing on the price range of 10-15 thousand yuan. The first model of the Mona brand is expected to be launched and delivered in 2024Q3; the main brand of the 2024H2 Xiaopeng brand is expected to release and deliver new models in advance within the year; the company will release more than 10 new models in the next 3 years, plus global and modified models. The total number of SOPs is expected to reach 30 models. In terms of channels, the company has now reached 500 stores and is expected to expand to 600 stores in 2024Q3. In 2024, Mona models will open independent showrooms through existing stores. In 2025 and beyond, along with the improvement of the Mona brand model matrix, it is expected that hundreds of independent distribution networks will gradually be established.
Risk warning: Product launches fall short of expectations, production capacity and supply chain risks, and increased industry competition.