UBS published a report stating that after announcing the results for the previous quarter on Weibo, the rating was upgraded from “neutral” to “buy”; the target price for H shares was lowered from HK$101 to HK$90. According to the report, since Weibo's valuation has dropped to about 5 times the predicted price-earnings ratio in 2024, which is the lowest level among major Chinese Internet stocks, it is believed that Weibo's stock price already reflects weak advertising performance, so there is limited room for decline. At the same time, it believes that the potential recovery in the second half of this year will be a catalyst, and believes Weibo's further commitment to shareholder returns will provide downside protection. According to the report, Weibo's revenue and operating profit for the previous quarter were in line with expectations, but net profit was adjusted to match expectations.
UBS mentioned that Weibo's special interest payment of 200 million US dollars was the highlight of the fourth quarter results announcement. The management seemed to promise to stabilize the dividend amount at about 200 million US dollars per year. The bank thought it was feasible because by the end of 2023, the company's net cash balance was 573 million US dollars, and the operating cash flow in 2023 was 673 million US dollars. The bank reduced Weibo's revenue forecast by 5% for this year, reflecting weak advertising growth and changes in foreign exchange, as well as a 17% reduction in adjusted earnings estimates for this year, reflecting worsening operating leverage and high dividend-related tax structures.