XIAOMI(1810.HK):RAISE TP AND ESTIMATES ON 4Q23 BEAT; ALL EYES ON EV OFFICIAL LAUNCH ON 28 MARCH
XIAOMI(1810.HK):RAISE TP AND ESTIMATES ON 4Q23 BEAT; ALL EYES ON EV OFFICIAL LAUNCH ON 28 MARCH
Xiaomi's 4Q23 revenue/net profit of 11%/236% YoY growth beat our/consensus estimates, driven by stronger margins, improving mix and investment gains. Looking ahead, mgmt. is positive on smartphone recovery, premiumization strategy and EV business expansion. We believe Xiaomi's global smartphone share gain, AIoT overseas sales and internet revenue improvement will continue to drive growth into FY24E-25E. We are also positive on Xiaomi's upcoming EV launch event on 28 March. We think Xiaomi's pricing strategy of its SU 7 EV and initial market feedback will be the near-term catalyst for share price. Our new TP of HK$20.25 is based on the same 24x FY24E P/E. Maintain BUY. Catalysts include EV product launch and smartphone market share gain.
受利潤率提高、組合改善和投資收益的推動，小米23年第四季度的收入/淨利潤同比增長11％/236％，超過了我們/共識的預期。展望未來，mgmt. 對智能手機復甦、高端化戰略和電動汽車業務擴張持樂觀態度。我們認爲，小米全球智能手機份額的增長、AIoT 海外銷售和互聯網收入的改善將繼續推動 FY24E-25E 的增長。我們也對小米即將於3月28日舉行的電動汽車發佈會持樂觀態度。我們認爲，小米對SU 7電動汽車的定價策略和初步的市場反饋將成爲股價的短期催化劑。我們的新目標價爲20.25港元，基於相同的24倍 FY24E 市盈率。維持買入。催化劑包括電動汽車產品的發佈和智能手機市場份額的增加。
4Q23 beat on better margins and improving mix. Xiaomi's 4Q23 global smartphone shipment increased 23.9% YoY and ASP dropped 2.6% YoY due to increasing mix of lower-ASP model in emerging markets, partially offset by China ASP increase. By segment, smartphone/internet revenue increased 20.6%/9.9% YoY, boosted by strong shipment, large global user base and better advertising revenue. AIoT revenue dropped by 5.1% YoY due to weaker TV/NB sales. Blended GPM came in at 21.3%, in-line with our/consensus estimates, despite lower SP/AIoT GPM given higher BOM cost and change in product mix.
23 年第四季度利潤率提高，組合有所改善。由於新興市場低ASP模式的組合增加，小米的全球智能手機出貨量同比增長23.9％，ASP同比下降2.6％，但部分被中國ASP的增長所抵消。按細分市場劃分，智能手機/互聯網收入同比增長20.6％/9.9％，這得益於強勁的出貨量、龐大的全球用戶群和更好的廣告收入。由於電視/NB銷售疲軟，AIoT收入同比下降5.1％。儘管由於物料清單成本上升和產品組合的變化，SP/AIoT GPM有所降低，但混合GPM仍爲21.3％，與我們的共識估計一致。
2024E outlook: All eyes on EV sales and initial market feedback; global smartphone share gain and AIoT expansion to continue. Xiaomi's upcoming EV launch event is scheduled on 28 March, and EV models will be available for sales in 59 Xiaomi stores in 29 cities immediately after the event. Mgmt. is positive on Xiaomi's smartphone global market share gain especially in the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, and anticipated faster shipment improvement for FY24E. Overall, we expect Xiaomi's revenue/adj. net income to deliver +12%/2% YoY increase for FY24E.
2024E展望：所有人都在關注電動汽車的銷售和初步的市場反饋；全球智能手機份額的增加和AIoT的擴張將繼續。小米即將舉行的電動汽車發佈會定於3月28日舉行，電動車型將在活動結束後立即在29個城市的59家小米門店發售。Mgmt. 對小米智能手機全球市場份額的增長持樂觀態度，尤其是在中東、非洲和拉丁美洲，並預計 FY24E 的出貨量將加快增長。總體而言，我們預計，小米的收入/調整後淨收入將使 FY24E 同比增長12％/2％。
EV official launch as near-term catalyst; Maintain BUY. We think that Xiaomi's EV pricing strategy and market response will be near-term share price catalysts. We slightly adjusted our estimates, and our new TP of HK$20.25 is based on same 24x FY24E P/E. Maintain BUY. Upcoming catalysts include EV product launch event and global smartphone share gain.
電動汽車正式推出是短期催化劑；維持買入。我們認爲，小米的電動汽車定價策略和市場反應將成爲短期股價的催化劑。我們略微調整了預期，新的目標價爲20.25港元，基於相同的24倍 FY24E 市盈率。維持買入。即將到來的催化劑包括電動汽車產品發佈會和全球智能手機份額增長。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。