Introduction to this report:
Wuliangye's wholesale prices have ushered in month-on-month improvements, and channel confidence has been significantly strengthened. At the same time, the product structure construction results have been prominent. Channel control capabilities have improved markedly, reforms have been deepened, and efficiency has been improved pragmatically, and leading values have continued to stand out.
Key points of investment:
Maintain an increase in holdings rating. Volume and price control is easy, price performance strengthens confidence, deepening reforms spawns momentum, and the leading value of Nongxiang continues to be highlighted. Maintain the 2023-2025 EPS forecast value of 7.83, 8.73, and 9.74 yuan, and maintain the target price of 192 yuan.
Wuliangye's wholesale price performance is one of the highlights of spring sugar, and we look forward to continued optimization in the future. During the spring sugar period, we tracked Wuliangye in many ways, and feedback on Wuliangye's dynamic sales flow rate across the country was positive. Corresponding to this, dealer inventories remained at a benign low level. Currently, repayments are around 60-80% nationwide, and the delivery process is slower than repayment. The batch price level is around 940-950 yuan. Since the peak season in 2024, the bulk price has maintained an upward trend. Currently, it has entered the price control phase. The positive thing is that this round of price control is firm and steady, and dealers generally report that prices are relatively solid and channel confidence is further strengthened. We look forward to further gains in the peak season after the off-season price increases.
Deepen reforms in 2024 and forge ahead pragmatically to usher in positive changes. In 2024, Wuliangye's marketing implementation year proposed the 12-word policy of “focus on sales, stabilize prices, increase efficiency, and change work style” to strengthen ideology and enhance execution ability. The core single product, BadaWuliangye, has been reduced in traditional channels. Currently, the market implementation is strict, and the refined operation capacity of the channel continues to improve. At the same time, the product structure was further optimized, and while 1618 and low-grade products were added, 45- and 68-degree products were added to supplement the product echelon, while high-end product classics emphasized value return and contributed to future growth.
The current situation is positive, and the leading value is prominent. Currently, the company has a clear strategy, a clear style of play, more pragmatic management, and a positive overall status. While growing steadily throughout the year, high-quality development can be expected in the future.
The company emphasizes shareholder returns. It is expected that the dividend rate will steadily increase in the future, and the leading value will be further highlighted.
Risk warning: Increased macroeconomic fluctuations, increased pressure on industry policies, etc.