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Xinhuanet (SHSE:603888) Jumps 3.2% This Week, Though Earnings Growth Is Still Tracking Behind Three-year Shareholder Returns

Simply Wall St ·  Mar 19 13:18

One simple way to benefit from the stock market is to buy an index fund. But many of us dare to dream of bigger returns, and build a portfolio ourselves. For example, Xinhuanet Co., Ltd. (SHSE:603888) shareholders have seen the share price rise 47% over three years, well in excess of the market decline (18%, not including dividends). On the other hand, the returns haven't been quite so good recently, with shareholders up just 4.2% , including dividends .

Since the stock has added CN¥420m to its market cap in the past week alone, let's see if underlying performance has been driving long-term returns.

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During three years of share price growth, Xinhuanet achieved compound earnings per share growth of 24% per year. The average annual share price increase of 14% is actually lower than the EPS growth. Therefore, it seems the market has moderated its expectations for growth, somewhat. Of course, with a P/E ratio of 53.67, the market remains optimistic.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-per-share-growth
SHSE:603888 Earnings Per Share Growth March 19th 2024

Dive deeper into Xinhuanet's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Xinhuanet's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. In the case of Xinhuanet, it has a TSR of 51% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's good to see that Xinhuanet has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 4.2% in the last twelve months. That's including the dividend. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 2% per year), it would seem that the stock's performance has improved in recent times. Someone with an optimistic perspective could view the recent improvement in TSR as indicating that the business itself is getting better with time. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 4 warning signs with Xinhuanet (at least 1 which is potentially serious) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Chinese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
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