China Aviation Hi-Tech (600862): Profit increased by 35%, improving quality and efficiency with remarkable results

2023 年度业绩符合市场预期

公司公布2023 年业绩：营业收入47.80 亿元，同比+7.50%；实现归母净利润10.31 亿元，同比+34.90%。单季度来看，4Q23 公司实现营业收入11.57亿元，同比+6.90%，环比-4.39%；归母净利润1.87 亿元，同比+99.80%，环比-36.15%。业绩符合市场预期。

发展趋势

航空新材料高速增长，盈利能力持续提升。1）公司预浸料主业保持高质量发展趋势，航空复合材料原材料产品销售持续增长，航空工业复材全年实现营业收入 45.15 亿元，同比增长6.01%；实现利润总额12.67 亿元，同比增长 31.25%；实现净利润10.88 亿元，同比增长 30.20%。2）2023 年公司毛利率达36.75%，YoY+5.81ppt，我们认为主要系公司产品结构优化；净利率达21.58%，YoY+4.38ppt，产品结构优化叠加规模效应显现，推动公司盈利能力持续提升。

费用端控制良好，高水平研发奠定核心竞争力。1）公司2023 年期间费用率同比+1.03ppt 至11.18%，主要系首批产品保险费增加等影响下，管理费用率同比+1.05ppt 至7.44%。2）2023 年公司研发费用1.76 亿元，YoY+7.

46%。公司持续推动新材料及高端装备业务研发，2023 年完成C929 前机身上壁板试生产验证（PPV）壁板研制，完成商用航空发动机复材关键零组件的研制和交付。3）公司2024 年全年经营工作目标实现营收50 亿元，YoY+4.6%，利润总额12.82 亿元，YoY+5.7%，其中航空新材料营收目标49.12 亿元，YoY+5.2%，利润总额目标13.70 亿元，YoY+7.5%。

持续强化产业能力建设，航空复材龙头有望分享低空经济红利。1）根据公司公告，公司大力推进预浸料新产线验证，北京市顺义区某园区新建的两条预浸料生产线已达稳定生产状态，同时投资4.32 亿元新建物料储存配送中心，预计2024 年投入使用。2）航空工业复材是我国航空领域唯一一家专业从事复合材料研发工程化的单位，承担AG600、C929 系列等多项型号研制攻关任务。我们认为，政策支持下低空经济有望蓬勃发展，eVTOL 对轻量化要求持续提升，公司作为航空复材龙头，有望分享低空经济发展红利。

盈利预测与估值

考虑公司下游交付节奏变化，我们下调2024 年净利润预测16.7%至11.13亿元，首次引入2025 年净利润预测12.82 亿元。当前股价对应2024/2025年26.0/22.5 P/E。我们维持跑赢行业评级，考虑到近期行业估值中枢下行，我们下调目标价17.8%至25.32 元，对应2024/2025 年31.7/27.5 xP/E，潜在涨幅22%。

风险

1）原材料价格上涨风险；2）特种产品价格调整风险。

2023 results are in line with market expectations

The company announced its 2023 results: operating income of 4.780 billion yuan, +7.50% year on year; realized net profit to mother of 1,031 billion yuan, +34.90% year-on-year. Looking at a single quarter, 4Q23 achieved revenue of 1,157 billion yuan, +6.90% year over month, and -4.39% month on month; net profit to mother was 187 million yuan, +99.80% year over year, and -36.15% month on month. The results are in line with market expectations.

Development trends

New aviation materials are growing rapidly, and profitability continues to improve. 1) The company's main pre-impregnation business maintained a high-quality development trend. Sales of aviation composite raw material products continued to grow. Aviation industry composites achieved annual revenue of 4.515 billion yuan, an increase of 6.01% year on year; achieved total profit of 1,267 billion yuan, an increase of 31.25% year on year; realized net profit of 1,088 billion yuan, an increase of 30.20% year on year. 2) In 2023, the company's gross margin reached 36.75%, YOY+5.81ppt. We think it is mainly due to the optimization of the company's product structure; the net margin reached 21.58%, YOY+4.38ppt, and the combined scale effect of product structure optimization showed, driving the continuous improvement of the company's profitability.

The cost side is well controlled, and a high level of research and development lays the core competitiveness. 1) The company's expense ratio for the 2023 period was +1.03ppt to 11.18% year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in insurance premiums for the first batch of products, etc., and the management expense ratio was +1.05ppt to 7.44% year over year. 2) In 2023, the company spent 176 million yuan on R&D, YoY+7.

46% The company continues to promote research and development of new materials and high-end equipment. In 2023, it completed the C929 front-fuselage wall panel trial production verification (PPV) wall panel development, and completed the development and delivery of key components made of commercial aero engine composites. 3) The company's annual operating target for 2024 was to achieve revenue of 5 billion yuan, YoY +4.6%, total profit of 1,282 billion yuan, YoY +5.7%, including new aviation materials revenue targets of 4.912 billion yuan, YoY +5.2%, total profit targets of 1.37 billion yuan, and YoY +7.5%.

Continuing to strengthen industrial capacity building, leading aeronautical composites are expected to share low-altitude economic dividends. 1) According to the company's announcement, the company is vigorously promoting the verification of new pre-impregnation production lines. Two new pre-impregnation production lines built in a park in Shunyi District of Beijing have reached stable production status, while investing 432 million yuan in a new material storage and distribution center, which are expected to be put into use in 2024. 2) Aviation Industry Composites is the only unit in the aviation field in China specializing in the R&D and engineering of composite materials. It undertakes development and research tasks for various models such as the AG600 and C929 series. We believe that with policy support, the low-altitude economy is expected to flourish, eVTOL requirements for weight reduction continue to rise, and the company, as a leader in aeronautical composites, is expected to share the dividends of low-altitude economic development.

Profit forecasting and valuation

Considering changes in the company's downstream delivery pace, we lowered our 2024 net profit forecast by 16.7% to RMB 1,113 million, and introduced a net profit forecast of RMB 1,282 million for the first time in 2025. The current stock price corresponds to 2024/2025 26.0/22.5 P/E. We maintain our outperforming industry rating. Considering the recent decline in the industry valuation center, we lowered our target price by 17.8% to 25.32 yuan, corresponding to 31.7/27.5 xP/e in 2024/2025, with a potential increase of 22%.

risks

1) Risk of rising raw material prices; 2) Risk of price adjustment for specialty products.

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中航高科(600862)：利润同增35% 提质增效成效显著

China Aviation Hi-Tech (600862): Profit increased by 35%, improving quality and efficiency with remarkable results

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