occurrences
The company released its 2023 annual report. In 2023, it achieved revenue of 28.84 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.5%; net profit to mother of 3.47 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.2%; and net profit after deduction of 2.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29%.
reviews
Sales revenue of electrolytic aluminum indicators, and net profit from 2023Q4 to mother increased. 2023Q4's revenue was 7.154 billion yuan, down 15.08% year on year, down 0.49% month on month, and net profit to mother was 1,332 billion yuan, up 99.76% year on year, up 60.7% month on month, net profit not returned to mother of 639 million yuan, down 37.61% year on year and 19.8% month on month. In 2023, the company transferred 100,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum production capacity index to Guizhou Huaren, 136,000 tons of production capacity target to Guizhou Xingren Denggao, and 100,000 tons of production capacity index to Liupanshui Shuangyuan Aluminum in Guizhou Province, totaling 336,000 tons of production capacity. Currently, the company has a production capacity of 480,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum.
Overseas alumina is being released, and demand is weak, and the aluminum processing business has been affected. In 2023, Nanshan Aluminum's overseas alumina project achieved full production. Alumina powder achieved revenue of 5.732 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57.36%, and the revenue share increased sharply to 20.11% compared to the same period last year. Due to weak overseas demand, the year-on-year decline in aluminum ingot market prices, and a sharp drop in the volume and price of aluminum deep processing products, the revenue share of aluminum deep processing products fell to 79.62% compared to the same period last year, and aluminum profile products achieved revenue of 4.220 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.75%.
300 million repurchases are made every year, while the 2023 plan is to pay 40% of the net dividend profit. The company introduced a series of shareholder return plans. It plans to use no less than RMB 300 million of its own capital to repurchase shares and cancel them every year from 2024-2026. At the same time, the 2023 dividend (excluding repurchases) ratio is not less than 40% (including capital) of the net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company in the current year.
By developing high value-added products, profitability is expected to continue to increase. The company focuses on developing high value-added products such as automobile panels, aviation panels, and power battery foils. The sales volume of high-end products accounts for about 14% of the company's total sales of aluminum products, an increase of more than 1 percentage point over the same period last year; the gross profit of high-end products accounts for about 30% of the company's total gross profit of aluminum products, an increase of nearly 9 percentage points over the same period last year. Aluminum automotive panels are the main development direction of aluminum applications in the future. In particular, the rapid promotion and application of new energy vehicles will drive a rapid increase in demand for automotive aluminum sheets, and the automotive board market has broad prospects.
Profit forecasting
The company's net profit for 2024/2025/2026 is estimated to be 38.75/41.96/4.565 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.33/0.36/0.39 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 10.06/9.29/8.54 times. First coverage, giving a “buy” rating.
Risk warning:
Downstream demand falls short of expectations, project capacity release falls short of expectations, and risk of large fluctuations in aluminum prices and alumina prices.