锂电设备出海逻辑再次验证，美国市场潜力巨大。美国是仅次于中国的全球第二大汽车市场，但新能源车渗透率不高。根据盖世汽车数据，2023 年美国新车销量为1560 万辆，其中新能源汽车140 万辆，占比仅8.97%。美国本土电池企业较少，ABF 公司是一家专注于磷酸铁锂电池制造的美国电池制造商，目标是打造美国第一个本土化的超级电池工厂网络，其位于亚利桑那州图森市的一期产线预计将于2025 年完成建设投产。未来，双方将在首条产线成功合作的基础上，打造本土化电池产业供应链，并积极探索二期、三期项目合作的可能。先导此次订单有望加快其美国市场布局，抢占市场先机。Incidents:
On March 18, the official public account of Pilot Intelligence revealed that the company officially signed a global strategic cooperation agreement with American battery manufacturer American Battery Factory (ABF). According to the agreement, Pilot Intelligence will provide ABF with smart lithium battery production line services with a total target of 20 GWh. According to reports, this is the largest order for lithium battery equipment received by a Chinese company in the US so far.
Key points of investment:
The logic of lithium battery equipment going overseas has been verified once again, and the US market has huge potential. The US is the second-largest automobile market in the world after China, but the penetration rate of new energy vehicles is not high. According to Gace Auto data, the US sold 15.6 million new vehicles in 2023, of which 1.4 million were new energy vehicles, accounting for only 8.97%. There are few battery companies in the US. ABF is an American battery manufacturer focusing on the manufacture of lithium iron phosphate batteries. The goal is to build the first localized superbattery factory network in the US. The first phase of its production line in Tucson, Arizona is expected to be completed and put into operation in 2025. In the future, the two sides will build a localized battery industry supply chain on the basis of successful cooperation on the first production line, and actively explore the possibility of cooperation in Phase II and Phase III projects. The pilot's order is expected to speed up its US market layout and seize market opportunities.
As the sole equipment supplier, the company's competitiveness is outstanding. Based on this strategic cooperation, Pilot Intelligence will become the only equipment supplier for ABF's first production line of the Gigafactory network project, providing ABF with a complete set of customized intelligent fully automated line solutions. Through the integration of key steps in the manufacturing process, Pilot Intelligence can design and verify customized battery product processes for ABF, achieve full product life cycle traceability, help ABF achieve the important goal of building a 20 GWh lithium battery gigafactory, and lay a solid foundation for building the first LFP gigafactory network in the US.
Continued buybacks show confidence. The company reviewed and passed the “Proposal on the Company's Share Repurchase Plan” on June 12, 2023, and agreed that the company would use its own funds to repurchase RMB common stock (A shares) shares already issued by the company through centralized bidding transactions to implement an equity incentive plan and/or employee shareholding plan. The total amount of repurchase capital shall not be less than RMB 200 million or not more than RMB 300 million. On December 13, 2023, the “Proposal on Increasing the Total Capital for Repurchase Shares” was reviewed and passed, and the total capital for the repurchase was adjusted to “not less than RMB 350 million, not higher than RMB 500 million.” As of February 29, 2024, the company had repurchased a total of 11.27 million shares of the company's shares, accounting for 0.72% of the company's total share capital, and the total transaction amount was 350 million yuan (excluding transaction fees).
Maintain profit forecasts and maintain a “buy” rating. The estimated net profit for 23-25 is 35.04, 46.91, and 5.860 billion yuan, respectively. The current stock price is 11, 9, and 7 times PE in 23-25, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the risk that overseas production expansion falls short of expectations, the risk that the competitive landscape will deteriorate, etc.
