According to a research report released on March 16, UBS pointed out that:
FUTU's strong Q1 2024 forecast shows an increase in regional net paying clients and asset inflow compared to Q4 2023, with a significant recovery in trading volume, leading to raised estimates and an expected high-single-digit sequential increase in revenue.
The robust FY24 forecast for client acquisition bolstered investor confidence in FUTU's growth abroad, especially in Japan and Malaysia.
The new buyback program is seen positively, though concerns remain about revenue growth in the face of interest rate cuts and uncertain trading volumes.
FUTU aims for a 10-20% annual reduction in Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) and anticipates a moderate single-digit yearly increase in employees, focusing on international growth and R&D improvements.
Key risks include:
Lower-than-expected international expansion
Worse-than-expected market conditions
Further regulatory scrutiny on mainland China business