MOBVISTA INC.(1860.HK):FOCUSING ON MARGIN ENHANCEMENT
MOBVISTA INC.(1860.HK):FOCUSING ON MARGIN ENHANCEMENT
FY23 results were largely in line, with rev +18% YoY and profit at US$19.1mn (in line with our estimate but 9% above consensus). Mintegral rev remained resilient at +19.5% YoY in 4Q23. For 2024E, we see high visibility for Mobvista to enhance its profitability (forecasting bottom line at US$37mn, net margin at 2.9%), with solid topline growth (forecasting +20% YoY). We expect midcore and hardcore games' momentum to continue. Intelligent bidding system upgrade should benefit effectively category expansion (e.g., non-game), and ROAS system should bring upside in the long run, if executed well. We lift our earnings forecast in FY24/25E by 10%. Maintain BUY with SOTP-based TP at HK$6.0 (32x/26x FY24/25E P/E, with a 21% earnings CAGR in FY24-26E).
23財年的業績基本一致，同比增長18％，利潤爲1,910萬美元（與我們的估計一致，但比預期高出9％）。Mintegral在23年第四季度保持彈性，同比增長19.5％。對於2024E年，我們認爲Mobvista的知名度很高，可以提高其盈利能力（預計利潤率爲3700萬美元，淨利潤率爲2.9％），收入穩步增長（預計同比增長20％）。我們預計中核和硬核遊戲的勢頭將繼續下去。智能競價系統升級應能有效地促進類別擴展（例如非遊戲），如果執行得當，從長遠來看，廣告支出回報系統將帶來上行空間。我們將24/25財年的收益預期上調了10％。維持買入，基於止損標準的目標價爲6.0港元（24/25財年市盈率爲32倍/26倍，FY24-26E 年盈利複合年增長率爲21％）。
In-line FY23 with improving margin. Mobvista reported in-line FY23 results, with rev +18% YoY, 1%/2% below our estimate/consensus. Adj.net profit reached US$19.1mn (+97% YoY), in line with our estimate but 9% above consensus. GPM improved to 20.6% in FY23 (+0.8ppt YoY, vs. our estimate of 20%), mainly on higher ads efficiency and cost discipline. By segment, ad-tech/mar-tech revenue rose 17.8%/23.9% YoY in FY23.
與23財年持平，利潤率有所提高。Mobvista公佈了23財年的業績，同比增長18％，比我們的預期/共識低1％/2％。Adj.net的利潤達到1,910萬美元（同比增長97％），與我們的估計一致，但比預期高出9％。GPM在23財年提高到20.6％（同比增長0.8個百分點，而我們的估計爲20％），這主要是由於提高了廣告效率和成本紀律。按細分市場劃分，廣告技術/營銷技術收入在23財年同比增長17.8％/23.9％。
Resilient growth with category expansion and upgraded system. In 4Q23, Mintegral rev grew 19.5% YoY, with relatively stable publisher & customer retention rate. By app category, midcore and hardcore games rev surged 66.3% YoY, with the share of rev climbing up to 29.1% in FY23 (vs. 20.8% in FY22). Lifestyle segment saw robust growth, with rev +143% YoY. By geography, EMEA and Americas still serve as the largest rev contributor (46% share) with highest growth (+25.6% YoY), boosted by large client expansion in EMEA and further penetration among SMEs. China market stayed relatively resilient, with rev growth at +15.1% YoY. Looking ahead, we expect FY24E rev +20% YoY, with intelligent bidding system upgrade potentially helping to expand categories (e.g. ecommerce).
通過品類擴展和系統升級實現彈性增長。在23年第四季度，Mintegral的修訂同比增長19.5％，出版商和客戶留存率相對穩定。按應用類別劃分，中核和硬核遊戲的轉化率同比增長66.3％，其中轉化份額在23財年攀升至29.1％（22財年爲20.8％）。生活方式板塊實現強勁增長，同比增長143％。按地理位置來看，在歐洲、中東和非洲地區大型客戶擴張以及中小企業進一步滲透的推動下，歐洲、中東和非洲地區仍然是最大的收入貢獻者（佔46％的份額），增長最快（同比增長25.6％）。中國市場保持相對彈性，同比增長15.1％。展望未來，我們預計 FY24E 同比增長20％，智能競價系統升級可能有助於擴大類別（例如電子商務）。
Better margin outlook. We remain positive on Mobvista's LT margin outlook, with narrowing loss of Mar-tech, lower traffic incentives to publishers and higher productivity. Adj. NM improved to 1.8% in FY23 (vs. 1.1% in FY22), and we forecast this number to climb up to 2.9%/3.0% in FY24/25E. In FY24E, we expect organic biz to generate >US$50mn in profit, while Mar- tech's loss should continuously narrow.
更好的利潤前景。我們對Mobvista的LT利潤前景仍持樂觀態度，包括Mar-Tech的虧損縮小，對出版商的流量激勵降低，生產率的提高。新墨西哥州調整後在23財年提高至1.8％（而22財年爲1.1％），我們預計這一數字將在24/25財年攀升至2.9％/3.0％。在 FY24E 中，我們預計有機業務將產生超過5000萬美元的利潤，而Mar-tech的虧損將持續縮小。
Maintain BUY. We slightly raise FY24/25E earnings forecast by 10%, with an unchanged TP at HK$6.0 (by assigning 20x FY24E P/E to ad-tech biz and 3.0x FY24E P/S to mar-tech biz).
維持買入。我們將24/25財年的收益預期小幅上調了10％，目標不變，爲6.0港元（將20倍的 FY24E 市盈率分配給廣告科技業務，將3.0倍的 FY24E 市盈率分配給海事科技業務）。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。