航空产品营收稳健增长，国外业务营收增速较快。分产品来看，1）2023 年公司航空产品实现营收247.38 亿元，同比增长8.63%；2）防务产品实现营收10.75 亿元，同比增长10.57%；3）现代产业及其他实现营收31.94 亿元，同比下滑19.68%。公司保质保量圆满完成各项航空、防务产品交付任务。分区域来看，1）2023 年公司国内实现营收283.04 亿元，同比增长3.18%；2）国外实现营收7.03 亿元，同比增长70.53%。Incidents:
The company announced its 2023 annual report: in 2023, the company achieved revenue of 29.07 billion yuan, +4.63% year-on-year; realized net profit of 1,886 billion yuan, +39.62% year-on-year.
Comment:
Revenue from aviation products is growing steadily, and revenue from foreign business is growing rapidly. By product, 1) in 2023, the company's aviation products achieved revenue of 24.738 billion yuan, up 8.63% year on year; 2) defense products achieved revenue of 1,075 billion yuan, up 10.57% year on year; 3) Modern industry and others achieved revenue of 3.194 billion yuan, down 19.68% year on year. The company successfully completed various aviation and defense product delivery tasks with guaranteed quality and quantity. Looking at the subregions, 1) the company achieved domestic revenue of 28.304 billion yuan in 2023, an increase of 3.18% over the previous year; 2) foreign revenue of 703 million yuan, an increase of 70.53% over the previous year.
The gross profit margin and net profit margin to mother have increased. On the gross profit side, the company's gross margin in '23 was 29.73%, +0.95pct year-on-year (adjusted comparable data for the same period, same below). On the profit side, the company's net interest rate to mother in '23 was 6.50%, +1.63pct year on year, and the company's profitability increased. On the cost side, the company's sales/management/R&D/finance rate in '23 was 0.94%/8.45%/12.03%/0.34%, -0.02/-0.43/+2.13/+0.09pct. The total cost rate for the period was 21.76%, +1.77pct year on year.
Among them, the company's R&D expenditure rate has increased a lot, and the company has increased its R&D investment.
The special work on absorption and merger was successfully completed. The China Aviation Electronics share exchange, absorption and merger transaction with China Aviation Electromechanical was successfully completed. The company changed its name to China Aviation Airborne Systems Co., Ltd., and the scale and quality were greatly improved. On March 17, 2023, the listing of China Aviation Mechatronics was terminated; on April 13, the asset transfer was completed, marking the completion of the merger project; on June 26, the supporting capital raised was 4.965 billion yuan (after deducting related issuance fees); on September 5, the abbreviation of China Aviation Electronics Securities was changed to “China Aviation Airborne”; and on December 29, the cancellation of China Aviation Electromechanical completed.
The 2024 business plan shows the company's confidence in high-quality development. The company expects to achieve revenue of 28.522 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.67%. Among them, defense business revenue declined due to factors such as industry policies, market environment, and insufficient order contract adjustments; other business revenue continued to grow. The company adheres to the concept of high-quality development, continues to reduce costs and expenses, and continuously improves economic efficiency. In 2024, it is expected to achieve a total profit of 2,437 billion yuan, an increase of 8.0% over the previous year.
Investment advice: Considering factors such as industry policy, market environment and order contract adjustments, we lowered the company's 24-25 performance forecast. We forecast that the company's revenue for 24-26 will be 289.93/331.66/37.390 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother will be 20.25/24.58/28.57 billion yuan, corresponding EPS of 0.42/0.51/0.59 yuan, PE 28.48/23.47/20.19X, maintaining the purchase rating.
Risk warning: Policy changes, declining demand, and performance and valuation judgments falling short of expectations.
