2023 年收入保持同比增长，净利润略有下滑。公司预告2023 年实现收入25.76 亿元，同比增长10.9%，4Q23 实现收入7.25 亿元，环比增长11%，收入端保持持续增长；预告2023 年归母净利润2.32 亿元，同比下滑12.6%，净利润率为9%，较2022 年下滑2.4ppt，4Q23 实现归母净利润0.39 亿元，环比略有下滑。我们认为主要原因为超高纯靶材扩产项目、半导体零部件项目导致费用端有所增加，同时受到精密零部件和第三代半导体材料新品开发试制增加等因素影响，公司业绩较2022 年有所下滑。Forecast 2023 results fell 12.6% year over year
The company announced its 2023 performance report: The company expects to achieve revenue of 2,576 billion yuan, up 10.9% year on year; net profit to mother is 232 million yuan, down 12.6% year on year, lower than our expectations. The main reasons are the decline in the semiconductor industry cycle and the recovery rate of the fab factory operating rate is lower than our expectations.
Key points of interest
Revenue continued to grow year over year in 2023, and net profit declined slightly. The company predicts revenue of 2,576 billion yuan in 2023, up 10.9% year on year; 4Q23 achieved revenue of 725 million yuan, up 11% month on month, and continued growth on the revenue side; forecast net profit to mother in 2023 of 232 million yuan, down 12.6% year on year, net profit margin of 9%, down 2.4 ppt from 2022, and 4Q23 to achieve net profit of 39 million yuan, a slight decrease from month to month. We believe that the main reason is an increase in the cost side due to ultra-high purity target production expansion projects and semiconductor component projects. At the same time, the company's performance declined compared to 2022 due to factors such as increased development and trial production of precision components and third-generation semiconductor materials.
The market share of the target material business is expected to continue to increase: the company's target business includes ultra-high purity aluminum targets, titanium targets, copper targets and tungsten-titanium targets. Customers include world-renowned chip manufacturers such as TSMC, SMIC, SK Hynix, and Lianhua Electronics. In July 2023, the company invested in the establishment of KFAM CO., LTD in Korea to build a Korean production base to expand overseas production capacity. According to TECHCET estimates, the global target market is expected to reach US$1.39 billion in 2024. We believe that as the company's production capacity expands and product competitiveness increases, the company's global share is expected to continue to increase.
The parts business product category continues to expand: The company's parts business includes transmission cavities, reaction chambers, ring components, cavity shields, protective plates, cooling plates, heating plates, gas distribution plates, gas buffer plates, module components, etc. The materials include metals (stainless steel, aluminum alloy, titanium alloy) and non-metals (ceramics, quartz, silicon, polymer materials). At the same time, the company actively expands third-generation semiconductor substrate materials, and the product coverage continues to expand. We believe that as component product categories continue to expand, the parts business is expected to provide a second growth curve for the company's revenue and profit side in the future.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Since the recovery of the semiconductor industry fell short of our expectations, we lowered the company's 2023/2024 revenue forecast by 1%/5% to 25.76/3.118 billion yuan, and lowered the company's profit forecast by 23%/25% to 232/340 billion yuan. At the same time, we introduced a profit forecast for 2025. It is estimated that the company will achieve operating revenue/net profit to mother of 4056/5 billion yuan in 2025, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to 38.2/25.9xP/E in 2024/2025. We used the SOTP valuation method to value the company. We switched the valuation multiples of the company's target materials and other businesses to 25xP/e in 2024, and maintained the 2026 valuation multiples of 30xP/E for the semiconductor components business. Since we lowered the 2026 net profit of the parts business by 24% to 385 million yuan, the target price was lowered by 12.6% to 57.5 yuan, corresponding to the company's 2024/2025 44.9/30.6xP /E, there is still room for an increase of 17.6% compared to the current stock price, maintaining an outperforming industry rating.
risks
The release of production capacity falls short of expectations, downstream demand for components falls short of expectations, and the risk of fluctuating raw material prices.
