Performance increased in 2023, and shipments of silver paste products increased dramatically
The company achieved revenue of 9.603 billion yuan in 2023, +154.94% year on year; net profit to mother of 3.86, or +2336.51% year over year; deducted non-net profit of 343 million yuan, +2829.96% year over year. The main reason for the increase in performance is the sharp increase in the company's silver paste shipments. Among them, the proportion of a complete set of conductive silver paste products used in N-type Topcon batteries has increased rapidly, leading the industry, and the accelerated marketing of the company's semiconductor paste products.
N-type products have become mainstream, and demand for silver paste has increased, leading to a sharp rise in volume. According to CPIA data, China's battery production in 2023 was 545 GW, +64.9% compared with the same period. It is estimated that in 2024, cell production will exceed 820 GW. InfoLink expects N-type technology to reach a market share of nearly 79% in 2024, with shipments as high as 492 Gw. N-type high-efficiency battery technologies such as Topcon.HJT require the use of conductive silver paste on both sides and have differentiated requirements. Conductive silver paste is one of the core materials for reducing costs and improving efficiency through technological innovation. The rapid rise in the market share of N-type battery technology will significantly drive the increase in conductive silver paste usage. According to estimates, demand for photovoltaic silver paste will reach more than 9,100 tons in 2024. At the same time, due to the high technical difficulty of N-type silver paste products, the unit processing cost will increase compared to R type products. The technical iteration of N-type products and the increase in market demand have brought effective support to the silver paste market, and conductive silver paste has ushered in a sharp rise in volume profit.
N-type silver paste takes the lead in the market. Promoting the advancement of metallization technology
In 2023, the company's sales volume of conductive silver paste was 1713.62 tons, +137.89%; of these, the sales volume of a complete set of conductive silver paste products used in N-type Topcon batteries was 1008.,48 tons, accounting for .58.85% of sales, which is in a leading position in the industry. TopCon will become the mainstream of the market due to its cost performance advantages. Currently, the technology development direction focuses on continuous cost reduction and efficiency. The laser-assisted sintering technology (LECO) can be effectively improved. TopCon's electric discharge conversion efficiency is 0.3% or more, and the wattage gain of the same module reaches 5-10W, which will further greatly enhance the competitiveness of TopCon batteries, and the industry penetration rate will increase rapidly. It is expected to gradually become the standard for battery manufacturers in the first half of this year. The company upgraded and iterated a full set of metallization solutions for the front and back side of the N-type TopCon electric silver paste, promoting the industrialization and large-scale mass production of new metallization processes such as low-light enhanced sintering (LECO) and new battery processes, and further strengthening the company's position in the industry. The company HJT has a full set of low temperature conductive silver paste and low temperature silver coated copper paste products to achieve large-scale shipment. The full set of metallized paste for IBC batteries continues to be developed, leading product performance, and delivery has been achieved. The company actively lays out ultra-low temperature curing conductive pastes for perovskite/silicon laminated batteries.
The usage rate of domestic silver powder has increased, the construction of silver powder production capacity has gradually increased the stability of domestic silver powder, and the acceptance of domestic silver powder has gradually increased. The company has vigorously promoted the introduction and replacement of domestic silver powder, and strengthened cost management. The alternative use of domestic silver powder is conducive to ensuring the safety of the company's supply chain, reducing costs, and the risk of fluctuations in silver points and foreign exchange. At present, the company's PERC battery silver paste accounts for more than 80% of domestic powder, and the proportion of domestic powder used in TopCon's electrostatic discharge silver paste accounts for about 50% 6. The company plans to build a production line for high-performance electronic materials such as 5,000 tons of silver mixed acid and 1,800 tons of metal powder per year in Xinyi, Jiangsu, and is scheduled to be put into operation in 2025. As the proportion of domestic powder used increases, the company's own production capacity will be implemented in the future, and supply chain safety will be guaranteed. The company's profitability will be further enhanced and the industrialization of semiconductor pastes will be strengthened, and business revenue will continue to grow
In 2023, the company's semiconductor packaging paste business revenue was 900 million yuan, +150.71% year-on-year. In the field of semiconductor electronics, based on a shared conductive silver paste technology platform, the company continues to promote and sell paste products for high-efficiency semiconductor chip packaging. The company's LED and IC chip packaging bonding silver paste products can be applied to different thermal conductivity scenarios, and the customer structure is constantly being upgraded. Sintered silver products bonded to third-generation power semiconductor chip packages and AMB ceramic copper-clad plate brazing pastes for power semiconductor packaging have entered the marketing stage. The company focuses on the three major product directions, strengthens R&D and improves product iteration, and continuously promotes and broadens the application areas of the company's products and customers.
Investment advice and profit forecast: N-type products have become mainstream, and the company's TopCon product industry is leading; N-type silver paste has advanced technology, rich products, and lays out upstream silver powder to strengthen cost management, ensure supply chain safety, and enhance profitability. The company's net profit from 2024-2026 is estimated to be 654,8835/967 million yuan, corresponding to PE13/10/8 times 2026, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The global economy is in a slump. Demand for installed photovoltaics has declined; competition within the industry has deteriorated; raw material prices have fluctuated drastically; the company's production capacity investment falls short of expectations; exchange risks have caused losses; and trade barriers between Europe and the US have hindered the development of the industry.