1) 物管业务稳健增长，资管业务复苏，业绩基本符合预期。2023 年公司物管、资管板块分别实现收入148 亿元、7 亿元，同比增长18%、50%。物管板块中，非住宅物管/住宅物管/平台增值/专业增值分别实现收入87.1/34.0/5.8/20.6 亿元，同比增速为26.2%/7.8%/1.4%/10.2%，非住宅业态保持较快扩张速度，是公司经营业绩稳健增长的保障；由于2023 年公司不再对租户实行租金减免，以及商业运营项目规模扩大，公司资管业务较2022 年度有明显复苏。整体来看，公司2023 年度业绩基本符合我们预期（我们预测归母净利润为7.7 亿元）。Event: The company's revenue in 2023 increased 20% year over year, and net profit to mother increased 24% year over year.
Investment savings released its 2023 annual report, achieving operating income of 15.63 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.0%, net profit to mother of 736 million yuan, an increase of 24.0% year-on-year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother of 660 million yuan, an increase of 32.1% over the previous year.
Comment: The performance is basically in line with expectations. Outreach efforts are obvious, and the gross margin of property management needs to be steadily rebounded.
1) The property management business grew steadily, the asset management business recovered, and the performance was basically in line with expectations. In 2023, the company's property management and asset management sectors achieved revenue of 14.8 billion yuan and 700 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year increases of 18% and 50%. In the property management sector, non-residential property management/residential property management/platform value-added and professional value-added achieved revenue of 87.1/34.0/5.8/2.06 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 26.2%/7.8%/1.4%/10.2%. The non-residential sector maintained a relatively rapid expansion rate, which is a guarantee of steady growth in the company's business performance; since the company no longer implemented rent relief for tenants in 2023 and the scale of commercial operation projects expanded, the company's asset management business has clearly recovered from 2022. Overall, the company's 2023 results are basically in line with our expectations (we forecast net profit to mother of 770 million yuan).
2) The non-residential sector maintains its leading edge, and expansion efforts continue to increase. By the end of 2023, the company had a total management area of 345 million square meters and 2,101 projects under management, covering 156 cities across the country. Among them, the non-residential sector has a management area of 213 million square meters (accounting for 61.9%), and a new annual contract amount of 4.04 billion yuan for property management was signed in 2023, of which the new annual contract amount for third-party projects was 3.54 billion yuan, an increase of 27.4% over the previous year, accounting for 87.5%, and the non-residential sector accounts for 85.5%. While related parties invested in Shekou to steadily deliver high-quality residential property management projects, the company continued to make efforts to expand the non-residential sector market, establishing a clear competitive advantage in segmented circuits (finance, universities, airports, urban services, etc.).
3) The gross margin of property management needs to be stabilized, and asset-light conversion helps improve overall operational efficiency. In 2023, the company's gross margin of non-residential and residential property management was 9.1% and 7.9% respectively, down 0.98 pct and 1.23 pct year on year. The overall gross margin of property management business was 8.8%, down 1.02 pct year on year, which is at a low level in the industry. Subsequent scale effects are expected to drive a steady recovery in the company's gross margin of basic property management. By the end of 2023, the company's investment real estate (including hotels, shopping centers, sporadic businesses, etc.) had a leasable area of about 470,000 square meters, an average occupancy rate of 96%, and the net book value of investment real estate was about 5.5 billion yuan. As the company progresses in an orderly manner and operational efficiency is further improved, the overall development is expected to improve quality and efficiency.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: The company has established high barriers in the non-residential sector, the gross margin of infrastructure management needs to be stabilized, and the growth rate of value-added services is slowing down. We adjusted the company's 2024-2025 net profit forecast to 90/1.05 billion yuan, adding the 2026 forecast to 1.17 billion yuan, corresponding to the 2024-2026 EPS of 0.85 (original 0.92) /0.99 (original 1.01) /1.11 yuan, PE is 13/11/10 times that of A-share scarce goods The target, valuation is attractive and maintains a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: The progress of the heavy asset divestment fell short of expectations, and increased competition for non-residential outbound development led to a decline in profit margins.