If we want to find a stock that could multiply over the long term, what are the underlying trends we should look for? Firstly, we'll want to see a proven return on capital employed (ROCE) that is increasing, and secondly, an expanding base of capital employed. This shows us that it's a compounding machine, able to continually reinvest its earnings back into the business and generate higher returns. However, after investigating Jiajiayue Group (SHSE:603708), we don't think it's current trends fit the mold of a multi-bagger.
Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
For those who don't know, ROCE is a measure of a company's yearly pre-tax profit (its return), relative to the capital employed in the business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Jiajiayue Group:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.059 = CN¥408m ÷ (CN¥15b - CN¥7.9b) (Based on the trailing twelve months to September 2023).
Therefore, Jiajiayue Group has an ROCE of 5.9%. On its own, that's a low figure but it's around the 6.9% average generated by the Consumer Retailing industry.
In the above chart we have measured Jiajiayue Group's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like, you can check out the forecasts from the analysts covering Jiajiayue Group for free.
The Trend Of ROCE
On the surface, the trend of ROCE at Jiajiayue Group doesn't inspire confidence. Over the last five years, returns on capital have decreased to 5.9% from 14% five years ago. On the other hand, the company has been employing more capital without a corresponding improvement in sales in the last year, which could suggest these investments are longer term plays. It may take some time before the company starts to see any change in earnings from these investments.
On a separate but related note, it's important to know that Jiajiayue Group has a current liabilities to total assets ratio of 53%, which we'd consider pretty high. This can bring about some risks because the company is basically operating with a rather large reliance on its suppliers or other sorts of short-term creditors. While it's not necessarily a bad thing, it can be beneficial if this ratio is lower.
In Conclusion...
Bringing it all together, while we're somewhat encouraged by Jiajiayue Group's reinvestment in its own business, we're aware that returns are shrinking. And investors appear hesitant that the trends will pick up because the stock has fallen 41% in the last five years. Therefore based on the analysis done in this article, we don't think Jiajiayue Group has the makings of a multi-bagger.
One more thing to note, we've identified 2 warning signs with Jiajiayue Group and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
For those who like to invest in solid companies, check out this free list of companies with solid balance sheets and high returns on equity.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.