The Zhitong Finance App learned that Zhongtai Securities released a research report stating that the rotating joint of a humanoid robot consists of hardware such as a motor and a speed reducer. Taking advantage of robot development, leading reducer manufacturers are actively seeking core materials with lower costs and better performance to obtain cost advantages, strengthen their technical advantages, and seize market share. The agency estimates that if the global production of humanoid robots reaches 1 million units, it is expected to bring 20.1/95.6/5.36 billion yuan of incremental space to precision planetal/RV/harmonic speed reducers, respectively.

Beneficial targets:

[Henggong Precision (301261.SZ)] Domestic leader in continuous casting ductile iron, invisible champion in speed reducers, outstanding growth and defense (“buy” rating);

[Zhongda (002896.SZ)] Leading precision reducer enterprise, integrated strategy to build core advantages (“increase” rating);

[Siling Co., Ltd. (301550.SZ)] The automotive aftermarket is stable and stable, and new business development can be expected (“buy” rating);

[Suzhu Co., Ltd.] Leading manufacturer of needle roller bearings, simultaneous expansion in multiple fields to consolidate its position in the industry (“buy” rating);

Recommended attention: [Double Ring Drive (002472.SZ)], [Green Harmonics (688017.SH)], [Toyomitsu Precision], and [Sichuan Robot].

The main views of Zhongtai Securities are as follows:

Overview of the reducer industry: The reducer is the core component of the transmission system. With the continuous expansion of application scenarios, the size of the reducer market continues to expand.

1) A reducer is a commonly used transmission component composed of multiple gears. It transmits power through the meshing of gears of different sizes, thereby reducing the speed of the driving equipment and providing higher torque output and carrying capacity. Its effects include reducing rotation speed, increasing torque, reducing inertia of motion mechanisms, locking mechanisms, etc.

2) Speed reducers can be divided into general purpose speed reducers, special speed reducers and precision speed reducers according to their purpose. General-purpose reducers meet basic power transmission requirements, and special reducers are designed for specific scenarios, such as wind power generation gearboxes. Precision speed reducers have the characteristics of high transmission accuracy, small backlash, and high torsional stiffness, and are commonly used in fields requiring high precision such as robots and high-end machine tools.

3) As the application scenarios of speed reducers continue to expand to emerging industries such as humanoid robots and new energy, the size of the reducer market continues to expand.

Precision reducer analysis and comparison: According to the structure, it is divided into three categories: planetary, RV, and harmonic. Each has its own advantages and is widely used in robot joints and other parts.

1) Precision planetary reducer:

① Structure: Using a single-stage transmission structure, it is mainly composed of three parts: a center wheel, a planetary wheel, and an internal gear ring.

② Advantages: high transmission efficiency, strong carrying capacity, low cost.

③ Disadvantages: Single-stage planetary reducers have a small deceleration ratio and are usually only suitable for motion mechanisms with relatively low accuracy requirements.

④ Application scenarios: Precision planetary reducers are commonly used in CNC machine tools, automation equipment, robot lower limb drives, etc.

2) RV reducer:

① Structure: A two-stage transmission structure is used, including a planetary gear structure and a cycloid pin wheel transmission structure.

② Advantages: Large transmission ratio range, high transmission efficiency, good stability and strong rigidity, suitable for heavy load scenarios.

③ Disadvantages: RV reducers have the disadvantage of being large in size and high in cost: due to the need to transfer a large amount of torque, they have many gears and many auxiliary components, resulting in a large size.

④ Application scenarios: RV reducers are commonly used in automated production lines, solar and wind energy equipment, robot pedestals, and heavy load scenarios.

3) Harmonic speed reducer:

① Structure: The harmonic reducer is composed of a wave generator, a flexible wheel, and a rigid wheel. It uses the elastic deformation of the flexible wheel to achieve internal mesh with a small tooth difference between the soft wheel teeth and the flexible wheel teeth.

② Advantages: high transmission accuracy, large deceleration ratio, small size, light weight, etc.

③ Disadvantages: Flexible wheels are prone to fatigue damage, limited carrying capacity, and relatively high cost.

④ Application scenarios: Harmonic speed reducers are commonly used in high-precision light load scenarios such as medical equipment, aerospace equipment, robot arms, wrists, and hands.

Competitive landscape: Overseas brand monopoly characteristics are remarkable, and domestic substitution is accelerating.

1) Global market: German planetary reducer brands are strong, with a total market share of 36% of the top three German brands in 2022; RVs and Japanese harmonic reducer brands monopolize, and Nabotsk and Hamanaco share 61%/82% respectively in the RV/harmonic reducer market in 2020.

2) Domestic market: The localization rate is increasing steadily, and the domestic replacement progress of the three types of precision speed reducers is uneven.

① Planetary speed reducer: The industry pattern is relatively scattered, and the leading manufacturers are represented by China Hercules and Newstar;

② RV reducers: Overseas brands have a high market share. The leading domestic brands are beginning to take shape. In 2022, the market share of Double Ring Drive/China Dalide was 15%/4%, respectively;

③ Harmonic speed reducer: The market share of domestic brands has increased markedly in recent years. In 2022, the market share of Green Harmonic/Laifu/Tongchuan was 26%/8%/6%, respectively.

Application of precision speed reducers in humanoid robots: Various selection schemes affect joint performance.

1) The rotating joint of a humanoid robot consists of hardware such as a motor+speed reducer. The reducer and motor play the role of decelerating and increasing torque. In the case of a high-torque motor, a low reduction ratio reducer (planetary, etc.) can be mounted. In the case of a low-torque motor, it is equipped with a high reduction ratio reducer (harmonic, etc.), and this solution has the advantage of small size.

2) Applications: ① The main part of the Optimus uses 3 models with a total of 14 rotating joints, corresponding to the use of 14 harmonic reducers; ② For economic reasons, domestic OEMs (Preferential Choice, Fourier, Zhiyuan, etc.) generally use solutions containing harmonic or planetary reducers at the same time.

Humanoid robots have spawned material/structural changes in precision speed reducers and are expected to become an important engine for their development.

1) Track changes often break “process rigidity”, and domestic brands are expected to break the game.

① Material transformation: Taking advantage of robot development, leading reducer manufacturers are actively seeking core materials with lower costs and better performance to obtain cost advantages, strengthen their technical advantages, and seize market share. Continuous cast ductile iron is low in cost and lightweight to meet the core demands of speed reducer manufacturers. According to the agency's estimates, the total global robot reducer market for continuous casting ductile iron is expected to reach 10.935 billion yuan in 2030. Of these, the market size of continuous cast ductile iron in humanoid robot reducers is expected to reach 5,072 billion yuan, and the industrial robot reducer market is expected to reach 5.862 billion yuan.

② Structural modification: The RV reducer is resistant to heavy loads and has stronger impact resistance, and is suitable for heavy load operation scenarios. Humanoid robots are highly stressed in positions such as the waist and hips, and it is expected that RV-like speed reducers will be used in the future to match corresponding scenarios.

2) The precision reducer market space is expected to expand significantly. In 2022, the global precision speed reducer market is about 19.7 billion yuan. Zhongtai Securities estimates that if the global production of humanoid robots reaches 1 million units, it is expected to bring 20.1/95.6/5.36 billion yuan of incremental space to precision planetal/RV/harmonic speed reducers, respectively.

Risk warning: The development of artificial intelligence & large model technology falls short of expectations, the expansion of downstream implementation scenarios falls short of expectations, the commercialization process of humanoid robots falls short of expectations, the risk of deviations in industry scale estimates, and the risk that the information used in research reports will not be updated in a timely manner.