Financial Services Association, March 15 (Reporter Liu Mengran) Prices in the photovoltaic industry chain have recently shown a trend of differentiation: silicon wafer prices have continued to weaken this week, but downstream component manufacturers are struggling to raise prices and are trying to raise them. A Financial Services Association reporter learned from industry insiders that demand for terminals improved at the end of the first quarter, but demand has yet to explode, and industrial chain prices are expected to maintain a steady trend.

On the upstream side, all types of silicon wafers increased their decline this week. According to the Silicon Industry Branch, the average transaction price of M10 monocrystalline silicon wafers fell to 1.95 yuan/sheet, a decrease of 4.88% from week to week; the average transaction price of N-type monocrystalline silicon wafers fell to 1.87 yuan/sheet, a decrease of 4.10% from week to month; the average transaction price of G12 monocrystalline silicon wafers fell to 2.74 yuan/sheet, a decrease of 2.14% from week to week.

This round of upstream price cuts mainly occurred in the silicon wafer process. In the polysilicon sector, the transaction range for various types of silicon materials was around 60,000 to 70,000 yuan. Overall, the average transaction price remained flat, with only P-type silicon falling slightly from month to month.

However, the decline in silicon wafer prices is mainly due to supply and inventory pressure, and the price game may enter a phased loss cycle. An industry analyst told the Financial Federation reporter that silicon wafer production in March was close to 70 GW, plus 20 GW of inventory, and the total volume was close to 90 GW. The sales pressure was quite obvious, so expectations of price cuts still exist.

However, the analyst said that in addition to the impact of cost, the price of components also needs to consider the release of terminal demand. The performance of resuming production and resuming work at the end of the first quarter all showed positive signs. Factors such as the increase in order volume all provided some support for component prices, and also encouraged component manufacturers to raise prices. According to the Silicon Industry Branch, the average transaction price of 182 mm single-sided modules currently remains at 0.93 yuan/W. With the thawing of permafrost, domestic projects started one after another, and demand for modules improved markedly at the end of the first quarter.

However, it should be noted that it is still too early to think that the photovoltaic industry chain has ushered in a “spring” at this point. A CIFA reporter learned from an N-type head battery factory that the company has raised the price of batteries twice after the Spring Festival. The profit per watt of its battery products is about 2 to 3 cents, and the latest battery price is between 0.48-0.49 yuan/W. In addition, SMM data shows that the current price of PERC cells is 0.38-0.39 yuan/W.

Analysts said that the current price of 0.9 yuan/W is still hovering near the cost line for component manufacturers. At least until around 1 yuan per watt, profitability will really improve. Comparing different products, the N-type products are relatively the best, followed by large-scale P-type factories, and the small-scale P-type battery module factory at the end is still quite pressured to start construction. Corresponsibly, the production schedule of integrated leading component manufacturers will also be higher than the industry average.

A CIFA reporter learned from industry insiders that currently leading component manufacturers are willing to raise prices, but actual results are yet to be seen. Furthermore, according to Infolink, the overall forecast price for March was mainly stable, and there was a slight increase in the low price range. Recently, it has also been seen that leading manufacturers are negotiating to reduce shipments for orders below 0.88 yuan. We will have to wait to see if the price increase settles.

Currently, the photovoltaic industry is in an overflow cycle. Even though there are structural shortages in some technical aspects, the total scale still generally exceeds demand. However, analysts mentioned that currently the biggest uncertain factor in component prices is about liberalizing the 95% red line of power grids. If this event finally comes to fruition, it will greatly boost the increase in wind and solar power generation.

A component company person also told the Financial Federation reporter that they are closely monitoring related developments. If the consumption red line is liberalized as expected by the market, downstream demand will rapidly increase significantly in the short term. At that time, the price of components may rise one by one day, but this requires observing the implementation of the policy.