Maintain an “Overweight” rating. Taking into account the marginal improvement in recruitment sentiment, adjusted net profit for 2024-25 was raised to $2,648/38.10 billion yuan (+1.65/+617) billion yuan. As the leading recruitment platform, the company gave a valuation of 30xPE higher than the industry average in 2024, corresponding to a target market value of RMB 79.4 billion for 2024, corresponding to HK$87.5 billion, and a target price of HK$98.33, increasing its holdings.
Performance summary: Revenue of 1,580 billion yuan/ +4.01% quarter-on-quarter acceleration, net profit of 331 million yuan (loss of 1.85 million yuan in 22Q4), adjusted net profit of 628 million yuan (22Q4 was 59 million yuan), adjusted operating profit excluding investment income was 519 million yuan, and the adjusted operating margin was 27.5%. MAU has 41.2 million people, which is still a 33% increase compared to 30.9 million in 22Q4; the number of higher-value annual paid enterprise users reached 5.2 million, a record high.
Revenue results all exceeded expectations, and accelerated month-on-month under a low base. ① The economy fluctuates and is relatively low in the season, and the revenue side growth rate can still accelerate and exceed previous guidelines, indicating that the company continues to expand its share. ② The growth rate of cash revenue this quarter accelerated markedly. Despite the impact of a low base, in terms of absolute amounts, cash revenue of 1,780 billion yuan this quarter still improved markedly, showing signs of stabilization in the recruitment intentions of some industries and leading companies; ③ The ARPU value was structurally dragged down due to the increase in the share of small and medium-sized users, but the ARPU values of large enterprises, KA and SME enterprises both increased separately, indicating a recovery in employment demand.
Recruitment by large enterprises has clearly stabilized, and the employment situation will continue to improve. ① Platform data has observed that recruitment demand has gradually stabilized since 2023Q3. The average daily online job growth rate for large KA enterprises with more than 10,000 people was higher than that of small and medium-sized enterprises, and the average daily online jobs of large enterprises after the Spring Festival were +24% compared to 2023; ② active user level, B-side activity began to exceed C-side, and the proportion of BC users on the platform gradually improved; ③ industry dimensions: blue-collar services, machinery manufacturing, transportation and logistics, and sales employment rates continued to rise, and there was also a marked recovery in finance and manpower positions. The above all indicate that the industry's recruitment demand is gradually improving; ④ The company's primary goal is still to expand the number of users, and it is in a positive cycle of increasing share and releasing profits.
Risk warning: Economic fluctuations affect the recruitment needs and willingness of small and medium-sized enterprises to pay, and recruitment platform competition exacerbates the risk of traffic platform business layout diversion.